Buy NTPC; target of Rs 439: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities research report on NTPC

NTPC – the largest thermal power player in India, is looking to add shades of green to its portfolio. It has substantial capacity addition plans on both thermal and renewables front. The NTPC group added ~2.9GW capacity in Q1FY26 (vs. 1.9GW organic capacity addition in full-year FY25) across thermal, renewables and pumped hydro storage. Note that earlier in the fiscal, the company revised upwards its commissioning target for FY26/FY27 to 11.8GW/9.9GW. Its green subsidiary – NTPC Green Energy (NGEL), has a locked in capacity of ~23GW (including JV capacity). Earlier this month, the Cabinet enhanced the investment limit for NGEL, amounting up to INR 200bn (INR 75bn earlier), stressing its importance in India’s energy transition.

Outlook

NTPC reported a steady Q1FY26 result – consolidated revenue was up 2% YoY to INR 487bn, EBITDA came in at INR 142bn (+9% YoY), while adjusted profit was up 12% YoY to INR 57.5bn. Reiterate BUY; TP revised to INR 439 (from INR 442).