Buy Adani Ports and SEZ; target of Rs 1550: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Adani Ports and SEZ

Adani Ports & SEZ (APSEZ) reported a revenue growth of 23% YoY to INR85b in 4QFY25 (in-line). Cargo volumes grew 8% YoY to 118mmt. The growth was primarily led by containers. In FY25, APSEZ managed ~27% of the country’s total cargo and ~45% of container cargo. EBITDA margin came in at 59% in 4QFY25 vs. our estimate of 63.6% (+30bp YoY, -130bp QoQ). EBITDA grew 24% YoY to INR50b (6% below our estimate), while APAT increased 34% YoY to INR31b (in line). During 4QFY25, port revenue grew 17% YoY to INR64.2b. Port EBITDA margin stood at 72% in 4Q (+200bp YoY). Logistics revenue grew 84% YoY to INR10.3b. EBITDA margins in the logistics business stood at 18% in 4Q FY25 (19% in 4Q FY24) During FY25, APSEZ’s revenue was INR305b (+14% YoY), EBITDA was INR184b (+16% YoY), EBITDA margin came in at 60.4%, and APAT stood at INR108b (+22% YoY).

Outlook

We expect APSEZ to report 11% growth in cargo volumes over FY25-27. This would drive a CAGR of 15%/16%/21% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25-27E. We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of INR1,550 (premised on 15x on FY27E EV/EBITDA).