Accumulate Mold tek Packaging; target of Rs 636: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Mold tek Packaging

MTEP reported 14.6% revenue growth in 4Q25 led by improvement in realization and stable volume growth (7.3%). MTEP expects double-digit volume growth in paints and improvement in EBITDA/kg to ~Rs.40 in FY26 led by superior EBITDA/kg of Rs100/ Rs70 for Pharma/Food business. MTEP has given positive outlook in the near term led by 1) Growing traction in pharma business with superior EBITDA/kg of ~Rs100 2) Double digit volume growth guidance for paints led by enhanced capacity for Aditya Birla group and Asian paint moving towards IML with all four plant IML ready by MTEP and 4) Healthy margin outlook for FY26/27 led by growing traction in food and pharma business. MTEP has seen EBIDTA/kg declining from Rs41 in FY22 to Rs37/kg in FY25, its recovery to Rs40.7/43 over FY26 and FY27 is key to improvement in profit growth.

Outlook

We estimate a 15% Sales CAGR & 25% EPS CAGR over FY25-27 post nil growth in the past three years. We cut EPS by 4.4% factoring in higher interest cost and capex. We rollover to FY27 and assign a PE of 22x valuing the company at Rs636 (Rs621 earlier). Retain ‘Accumulate’.

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