Accumulate Cipla; target of Rs 1405: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Cipla

Our FY25/26E EPS estimates broadly stands increased by 3%. CIPLA’s Q4FY24 EBITDA (Rs13.2bn; 21.4% OPM) was in line with our estimates, aided by higher GMs (66.3%). Due to delay in some key launches like gAdvair and gAbraxane (pushed by atleast 2-3 quarters), timely launch of five peptide (guided for FY25) will be a key. We continue to remain positive on key segments growth including India & US given 1) strong traction in respiratory & other portfolios, 2) potential +10% growth in domestic formulations and 3) sustainability of current US revs. We expect 10% EPS CAGR over FY24-26E. At CMP, stock is trading 24x FY26E EPS adjusted for gRevlimid.

Outlook

We maintain our ‘Accumulate’ with TP of Rs1,405/share. Any further FDA escalation to Indore unit and erosion in key products in US will be key risk to our call.

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