Explained: Upcoming Phase 3 metro line may dent real estate affordability in south Bengaluru

Combined, the metro network will expand by 44.65 km, adding 31 stations. The expansion is expected to be completed by 2029.

"The upcoming Bengaluru Phase 3 metro project will connect residential locations in south Bengaluru with business hubs and tech parks along Mysore Road and Hebbal. The overall impact will be positive in terms of better connectivity, less traffic congestion and greater spread of the residential real estate sector along this metro route," Ramita Arora, Managing Director-Bangalore and Head-Flex, Cushman & Wakefield told Moneycontrol.

Is south Bengaluru one of the affordable pockets in the city?

Parts of south Bengaluru such as Kanakapura Road, Electronic City, Bannerghatta Road, JP Nagar, and BTM Layout have seen a 10-15 percent rise in real estate prices since December 2023. However, properties in parts of the south, like Kanakapura Road, are relatively cheaper and make for attractive investment.

Residential activity has been limited in locations adjoining the upcoming metro project in south Bengaluru in recent years. Data from Cushman & Wakefield said that between 2022 and the first half of 2024, the south Bengaluru micro-market has contributed around 10-13 percent of total unit launches and the share of total sales has been less than 10 percent.

During this period, launch and sales have been dominated by east and north Bengaluru, followed by the southeast micro-market (primarily the locations around Outer Ring Road and Sarjapur Road).

While data from property consultants say property values in south Bengaluru have risen by 10 percent YoY, local brokers estimate that the hike can be as much as 30-40 percent since last year.

"In JP Nagar, property prices have appreciated from Rs 7,000 per sq ft to Rs 13,000 per sq ft since last year. An average standalone 2BHK apartment is now Rs 75 lakh-80 lakh from over Rs 50 lakh last year. A similar story can be seen in Electronic City and Kanakapura Road," Sunil Singh, Director, Realty Corp said.

However, south Bengaluru continues to remain more affordable than the north and eastern micro-markets where standalone 2BHKs are up for sale at Rs 85 lakh-1 crore and apartments in gated societies can touch Rs 1.5-2 crore.

May dent affordability, little impact on rentals, experts say

Areas like Kanakapura are already seeing 18.66 percent YoY capital appreciation, according to Magicbricks Research, driven by better connectivity and ongoing infrastructure investments and the metro connectivity is set to reduce commute times and increase accessibility, further appreciation is likely.

Singh added that the upcoming metro may dent affordability in the long run, after the retail and commercial spaces start developing along the metro routes. "The impact of the property prices can be 10-20 percent in places like Kanakapura, JP Nagar and areas closer to Magadi Road."

Knight Frank India research says that unsold inventory in south Bengaluru has dropped by 14 percent, while unsold inventory for east Bengaluru has spiked 66 percent in the second half of last year. This points to the growing demand for real estate in the southern parts of the city, with the north and east continuing to be the top choice.

"Healthy price growth is anticipated in locations such as Mysore Road, BEL Circle, Sumanahalli, and Nagarbhavi; these localities will benefit from enhanced connectivity through the metro project and higher demand will translate into strong price growth. JP Nagar, where existing property prices are relatively higher, is likely to see a moderate price rise over the medium to long term," Arora added.

However, until seamless transportation infrastructure and commercial corridors are developed, it is unlikely that the upcoming metro corridors will impact south Bengaluru's residential rentals.