Neutral United Breweries; target of Rs 2000: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on United Breweries

United Breweries (UBBL) delivered strong revenue growth of 16% YoY (est. 10%) in 1QFY26. Volume growth was 11% YoY (est. 4%, 5% in 4Q, 6% in FY25), aided by share gain and a low base from the election-impacted quarter last year. Of the overall growth, 2-2.5% was attributed to the low base. The premium portfolio continued its strong momentum, growing 46% YoY in 1QFY26 (vs. 32% in FY25), and now contributes 10% to overall volumes. Regionally, North, West, and South posted growth of 8%, 13%, and 16%, respectively, while the East declined 1%. Volume growth was led by Andhra Pradesh, Assam, and Uttar Pradesh, though partly offset by declines in Karnataka and West Bengal. A favorable price mix supported revenue, aided by hikes in Telangana, UP, Orissa, and Rajasthan, along with continued premiumization.

Outlook

We estimate EBITDA margin recovery in FY26 and FY27; any delay in margin recovery could lead to further earnings cuts. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock. Our TP of INR2,000 is based on 55x Jun’27E EPS.