The Nifty and Bank Nifty continued their downtrend for the third consecutive session on December 18, ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps and signaled two rate cuts in 2025. Both indices fell below the midline of their Bollinger Bands. If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks 24,050 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the November low to the December high), then 23,873 (the November 28 low) is the level to watch. However, on the higher side, 24,350 may act as resistance, experts said. If the Bank Nifty falls below 51,840 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the November low to the December high), then 51,700 (near the 100-day EMA) and 51,300 could be possible, but on the higher side, 52,650 is the key level to watch.
On Wednesday, December 18, the Nifty 50 closed at 24,199, down 137 points, and the Bank Nifty plunged 695 points (1.32%) to 52,140. The market breadth remained in the red, with 1,801 shares declining and 719 shares rising on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Vidnyan Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital
The Nifty has been encountering strong resistance at the 24,860 level for the past three weeks. During the latest week, it formed a significant bearish candlestick pattern on the weekly charts. On the daily charts, the index is exhibiting a lower top, lower bottom formation, signaling a bearish undertone in the market. Despite this, the Nifty remains in a consolidation phase. A shift from a sideways to a negative trend is likely if the index breaches the 23,800 level on the downside, while the key resistance on the upside is positioned at 24,500.
Key Resistance: 24,500, 24,860
Key Support: 23,800, 23,250
Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures below 23,800 with a stop-loss at 24,100, targeting 23,250.
Shitij Gandhi, Senior Technical Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities
Technically, the Nifty has breached its key support of 24,200, and the next major support is seen at the 23,900 level. On the higher side, 24,500 would act as a strong hurdle for the index. We expect the markets to remain on volatile ground and expect it to trade in a broader range of 24,000–24,500.
Key Resistance: 24,500, 24,600
Key Support: 24,100, 24,000
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 24,150, with a stop-loss below 24,000, targeting 24,450.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments & Securities
Nifty recently hit a swing low of 24,181 on the daily charts, forming two strong rejection candles on the 75-minute timeframe, signaling a potential reversal. Adding to the bullish setup, the Nifty options PCR (Put-Call Ratio) has plummeted to a 3-year low of 0.55, indicating extreme oversold conditions. This confluence of technical factors suggests that the index is primed for a recovery. With lower-degree charts confirming rejection candles at critical levels, we anticipate a dead cat bounce that could take Nifty up to 24,400 in the near term. Traders should watch for continued bullish signals as the index looks set to capitalize on this short-term momentum and retrace towards higher levels.
Key Resistance: 24,290, 24,400
Key Support: 24,180, 24,090
Strategy: Nifty is a buy above 24,220, as it confirms a reversal from the swing low of 24,180.8. The target range is 24,290–24,400, with strong rejection candles and oversold conditions supporting the move. Place a stop-loss below 24,150 to manage risk.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Vidnyan Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital
The Bank Nifty has formed a Double Top pattern near its record high, signaling a cautious outlook at elevated levels. On the daily charts, the index is maintaining a lower top, lower bottom formation and is trading below its 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). The next resistance zone is anticipated at 53,800–54,460, while support is positioned in the 51,600–49,600 range.
Key Resistance: 53,800, 54,460
Key Support: 51,600, 49,600
Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures below 51,600, with a stop-loss of 52,500, targeting 49,600.
Shitij Gandhi, Senior Technical Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities
The Banking index has been under pressure over the last two sessions, with profit booking in major stocks like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and SBI weighing on overall market sentiment. Technically, the index is expected to fluctuate within a range of 51,500 to 53,500 over the coming week. A breakout beyond this range could determine the index's future direction. Despite the recent weakness, the Bank Nifty remains well above its key short-term moving averages on weekly basis, suggesting that the bullish bias is likely to persist for now.
Key Resistance: 52,700, 53,000
Key Support: 52,000, 51,700
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 52,000, with a stop-loss below 51,600, targeting 52,700.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments & Securities
Bank Nifty closed below its swing low of 52,264, resting at the 50-day moving average on the daily chart. With the PCR hovering around 0.6—an oversold zone for Bank Nifty—a reversal seems imminent. On the 75-minute chart, a Hammer candle at the 50-day EMA signals the first signs of recovery. If the index manages to clear 52,310, which aligns with Wednesday’s average traded price (ATP), a dead cat bounce towards 52,800 is likely. This technical setup, combined with oversold conditions, makes Bank Nifty a key index to monitor for a short-term bounce in the coming sessions.
Key Resistance: 52,310, 52,800
Key Support: 52,000, 51,700
Strategy: Bank Nifty is a buy above 52,300, targeting 52,800. Maintain a stop-loss at 52,050 to manage downside risk effectively.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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