Bears tightened their grip on the market on the first day of the March series, dragging the Nifty 50 to its lowest level in the last 9 months. Considering the RSI is in the oversold zone, a possible rebound could push the index toward 22,300 (the immediate target), followed by 22,500. However, if the downtrend continues, the index may attempt to defend 22,000; below this, 21,800 is likely to act as key support. As long as the Bank Nifty holds 48,000 on a closing basis, the upward journey toward 48,500-49,000 can’t be ruled out. But, if it falls below 48,000, 47,800 is likely to act as a strong support, according to experts.
On Friday, February 28, the Nifty 50 plunged by 420 points (1.86%) to 22,125, while the Bank Nifty fell 399 points (0.82%) to close at 48,345. Bears remained in control of the market breadth, with 2,278 shares seeing a correction compared to 346 advancing shares on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One
Recent global developments have sparked considerable anxiety, resulting in a frantic sell-off that has reverberated across every sector, plunging equity investors into a state of turmoil. The benchmark index has plummeted to levels reminiscent of a year ago, erasing all previous gains and the optimistic outlook that had built up over time. The technical support levels, which typically provide a buffer against sharp declines, have been mercilessly tested and compromised, leaving investors feeling as if their strategies have crumbled like a house of cards.
From a technical standpoint, the consolidation zone from a year ago, marked around 22,000-21,800, is currently situated nearby and is expected to serve as a crucial support level for the Nifty 50 index. This support could help stabilize the index during fluctuations. Conversely, the bearish gap at 22,450-22,500 is anticipated to function as an intermediate resistance barrier, potentially hindering upward movement. Following that, another significant bearish gap at 22,670-22,720 is likely to present a formidable challenge, making it difficult for the index to gain traction in the short term.
On the options front, scattered positioning of open interest was seen at the 22,500 strike Call and 22,000 strike Put, indicating an intermediate range.
Key Resistance: 22,450, 22,500, 22,700
Key Support: 22,000, 21,800
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 22,000, with a stop-loss of 21,800, and book profits near 22,500.
Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities
The Nifty closed last week with a loss of 671 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a long bearish candle with a lower high-low structure, indicating ongoing weakness. It is approaching key medium-term support at 21,800, which aligns with the lower band of the falling channel and the 100% Fibonacci extension of the decline from the all-time high of 26,277 to the swing low of 23,263, anchored by the peak at 24,858.
On the upside, short-term resistance is located at 22,750, which represents the breakdown zone and the bearish gap. A sustained move above 22,250 could trigger buying momentum, propelling the index toward 22,500 and 22,750. Conversely, if there is a break below 22,000, it may accelerate selling, pushing Nifty toward 21,800 and 21,500.
For the week ahead, the index is expected to trade within a range of 22,750 to 21,500 with a negative bias. Additionally, the daily and weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) is trending downward and remains below its reference line, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
Key Resistance: 22,350, 22,500
Key Support: 22,000, 21,800
Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 22,225, with a stop-loss of 22,350, targeting 21,800.
Ameya Ranadive, CMT, CFTe, Senior Technical Analyst at Stoxbox
The Nifty marked five consecutive months of decline—a first in 29 years. Persistent selling pressure has stalled every rebound, with no hourly candle closing above its previous high, reflecting strong bearish sentiment. The index is hovering near the 22,000-mark, a critical support level. The options market signals caution, with heavy Call writing at 22,500 reinforcing resistance, while Put accumulation at 21,800 establishes support. The 22,300–22,500 zone remains a key supply area, and RSI below 25 highlights oversold conditions.
Key Resistance: 22,500, 22,800
Key Support: 21,700, 21,500
Strategy: With selling pressure persisting, a ‘Sell on Rise’ approach is advisable. 22,500 remains the immediate resistance, while a break below 22,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward 21,500.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One
The downtrend persists across all timeframes, with no clear signs of reversal yet. That said, buyers have repeatedly defended the crucial 48,200-48,000 support zone, offering a glimmer of hope. Despite the broader market breaking below recent lows, sellers have failed to breach the key swing low at 47,800, adding confidence to the buyers’ case. Another key observation is the formation of three consecutive down bars on the monthly chart, a pattern that has historically preceded sharp recoveries, particularly from the 20 WEMA, which has served as strong support since the COVID crash. This hints at the possibility of a near-term bounce.
However, participants would be well-advised to avoid aggressive long positions and instead adopt a staggered buying approach on dips. The bearish gap zone of 48,550-48,620 is likely to act as immediate resistance, with a stronger hurdle at the psychological level of 49,000. A close above the bearish gap would signal initial signs of exhaustion among sellers, making it a key level to watch. On the options front, decent piling of open interest was seen at the 49,000 strike Call and 48,000 strike Put, indicating an intermediate range.
Key Resistance: 48,550, 48,620, 49,000
Key Support: 48,000
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 48,200 for a potential target of 49,000, with a stop-loss of 47,800.
Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities
Bank Nifty fell 637 points during the last week. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating significant selling pressure at higher levels. Despite this decline, Bank Nifty outperformed Nifty and is approaching a key support level at 47,873, which corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 46,078 to 54,467 and a recent swing low. On the upside, 49,000 acts as resistance, defined by a downward-sloping trendline. A sustained move above 48,500 could trigger buying activity, potentially driving the index toward 49,000 and 49,500. Conversely, if the index breaks below 48,000, it may accelerate selling, leading to declines toward 47,500 and 47,000.
For the week ahead, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within a range of 49,500 to 47,000, with a mixed bias. The daily and weekly RSI remains bearish, holding below the 50 mark, reinforcing negative sentiment.
Key Resistance: 48,500, 48,800
Key Support: 48,000, 47,800
Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 48,550, with a stop-loss of 48,750, targeting 48,000.
Ameya Ranadive, CMT, CFTe, Senior Technical Analyst at Stoxbox
Bank Nifty is showing greater resilience than Nifty by withstanding selling pressure and rebounding from lower levels. However, despite this relative strength, the index has logged three consecutive months of losses. The 48,000–47,750 zone remains a critical support, while 48,900, last week’s low, has turned into strong resistance due to aggressive Call writing. The RSI below 40 signals weak momentum, reinforcing bearish control.
In the derivatives market, Call writers dominate, reflecting a defensive stance. A significant open interest build-up at the 49,000 strike Call cements it as a key resistance, while strong Put writing at 48,000 establishes a solid support base.
Key Resistance: 48,700, 49,000
Key Support: 48,000, 47,750
Strategy: A ‘Sell on Rise’ approach remains prudent. 48,700 serves as immediate resistance, while a break below 48,000 could accelerate the decline toward 47,500–47,000.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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