Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty extend southward journey amid rangebound trading?

In the previous session, Nifty closed below the prior day’s low for the second consecutive day amid weak global cues and FII selling. Caution is advised unless there is an hourly close above 24,830. On the hourly chart, no candle has closed above the previous candle’s high, indicating continued weakness. As per Open Interest (OI) data, the 25,000 strike has the highest OI on the Call side, which can act as a near-term hurdle.

Conversely, the 24,500 strike has the highest OI on the Put side, serving as near-term support. We can expect Nifty to remain rangebound between 24,500–25,000 for this week’s expiry. The index also closed below the important support level of 24,728. A break below 24,650 can accelerate selling pressure, with potential targets at 24,500 or lower. On the upside, an hourly close above 24,830 is essential for stability.

Key Resistance: 25,000

Key Support: 24,350

Strategy: Short Nifty Futures below 24,650, with a stop-loss at 24,800, targeting 24,500, followed by 24,350.

Nandish Shah, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities

Indian equity benchmarks declined sharply amid reports of increasing COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asian countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong. The Nifty closed below its 5-day EMA for the first time since May 8, suggesting entry into a profit-booking phase. However, the positional trend remains bullish as it trades above its 20-day EMA at 24,416 and 50-day EMA at 23,900. Hence, a buy-on-dips strategy is advised, with a stop-loss at 24,300. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dropped sharply to 0.69 from 0.82, mainly due to aggressive Call writing at 24,800–25,000, signaling immediate resistance in the 24,800–25,100 band.

Key Resistances: 24,800, 25,116

Key Support: 24,300, 24,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 24,550, with a stop-loss at 24,300, targeting 24,800 and 25,100 (cash levels).

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

The Nifty is currently trading in a broader range of 25,110 to 24,500, acting as a key resistance–support zone. The RSI on the daily chart is at 57.97 with a bearish crossover, indicating a loss of positive momentum. On the weekly chart, the index has lost 1.34 percent, likely due to profit booking after a 4.21 percent rally last week.

The weekly RSI stands at 58.45 with a downward slope, further suggesting weakening bullish momentum. In the derivatives segment, we’re witnessing significant unwinding in ITM Puts, pointing toward bearish sentiment. Maximum Call and Put writing has occurred at 25,000 and 24,500, which now act as near-term resistance and support, respectively. The India VIX, the fear gauge, is trading at 17.3, slightly elevated but not at levels that would scare off bulls.

Key Resistance: 24,915, 25,116

Key Support: 24,500, 24,350

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures at around 24,800, with a stop-loss at 24,915, targeting 24,500.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Over the past two weeks, Bank Nifty has traded in a broad range of 54,000–56,100, experiencing volatility on both sides. In the previous session, Bank Nifty failed to sustain its gains after 3 days of positive momentum, getting rejected at an upward sloping trendline and falling over 700 points. The index closed below the prior day’s low, indicating weakness. A breach below 54,800 could intensify the decline toward 54,460, which is the 23.6% retracement of the April rally. In short, Bank Nifty looks weak. A break below 54,800 could extend the fall to the lower range near 54,000, while on the upside, 55,700 remains a crucial resistance.

Key Resistance: 55,700

Key Support: 54,000

Strategy: Short Bank Nifty Futures below 54,800, with a stop-loss at 55,000, targeting 54,600, followed by 54,460.

Nandish Shah, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities

Bank Nifty closed below its 5-day EMA for the first time since May 9, suggesting entry into a profit-booking phase. However, the positional trend remains bullish, as it is trading above the 20-day EMA (54,520) and 50-day EMA (53,000). The index has also broken out from a downward sloping trendline on the weekly chart. Options data shows aggressive Put writing at 54,000–54,500, indicating support at those levels. Thus, a buy-on-dips approach is recommended with a stop-loss at 53,900. Immediate resistance levels are placed at 55,500, followed by 56,100.

Key Resistance: 55,500, 56,100

Key Support: 54,400, 53,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 54,400, with a stop-loss of 53,900, targeting 55,500, and 56,100.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

Bank Nifty broke below the 40-day moving average at 54,990 on the daily chart, signaling a bearish shift in structure. This breakdown implies growing weakness and the potential for further downside. From the derivatives perspective, the monthly options chain shows unwinding in ITM Puts, reflecting a lack of bullish confidence. Simultaneously, ITM Call writing is picking up, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Unless Bank Nifty decisively reclaims the 55,100–55,300 resistance zone, the bias remains bearish. Key support levels to watch are 54,520 and 54,068.

Key Resistance: 55,100, 55,700

Key Support: 54,520, 54,068

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures at around 54,877, with a stop-loss at 55,100, targeting 54,520, then 54,068.

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