Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 snap four-day decline, Bank Nifty reclaim 57,000?

The Nifty has been falling for the last four consecutive trading sessions. Interestingly, the India VIX has been rising for the past two sessions, indicating that the increase in volatility is a concern in the near term. The Nifty IVs (implied volatility) have fallen to 10.84, and when looking back over 250 trading sessions, the IVP and IVR have dropped to 4.4 and 11.79, respectively. This is concerning in the near term, as it suggests IVs are likely to rise—possibly up to the 14–15 range. In that process, the Nifty may correct, hence the upside appears capped in the short term.

The index is trading below its maximum pain and modified maximum pain levels of 25,150 and 25,205, respectively, which may act as resistance in the near term. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has dropped to 0.54, reaching oversold territory quite early into the weekly expiry, further indicating the likelihood of rising IVs. Therefore, sell on rise should be the strategy until 25,500 is taken out on a closing basis.

Key Resistance: 25,300, 25,500

Key Support: 25,000, 24,800

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near 25,200, with a stop-loss of 25,350, and target of 25,000 and 24,800.

Jigar S Patel, Senio Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Once again, the Nifty has re-entered the consolidation range of June 2025, signaling a pause in momentum. On the daily chart, the index has breached the S3 Monthly Camarilla support at 25,200, indicating weakness. However, on the hourly chart, the Nifty found support at the Daily Camarilla S3, around the 25,050 level, suggesting the potential for short-term base formation.

Going forward, we expect base creation in the 25,000–25,100 zone. Supporting this view, the FII Long-Short ratio has dropped to around 20 percent, the lowest in the last 22 trading sessions, which historically hints at the possibility of a bounce or short-covering rally.

Key Resistance: 25,300, 25,400

Key Support: 25,000, 24,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 25,100–25,150 zone, with a stop-loss of 25,000, and for target of 25,400.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

After hitting a high of 25,670, the Nifty has been forming a lower high–lower low pattern for the past three weeks, indicating profit booking at higher levels. On the daily chart, the index is trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reflecting a short-term negative bias. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to decline and remains below the 50 mark, highlighting the absence of positive momentum.

Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,800

Key Support: 25,000, 24,800

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near 25,350, for a target of 25,000 and 24,800. The stop-loss is 25,500.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty has formed a bearish wedge pattern, with support at the 56,000 level. The 56,000 strike has the highest Put open interest, making it a critical support in the near term, while 57,000 is a critical resistance. Thus, the range for Bank Nifty narrows to 56,000–57,000.

Options data suggests that unless 56,000 is broken convincingly, Bank Nifty may find support and bounce back. However, 57,000 will remain a key resistance in the near term. Until major private sector bank results are announced, Bank Nifty is likely to trade sideways, and post-results, it may provide a breakout.

Key Resistance: 57,300, 57,500

Key Support: 56,500, 56,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures near 57,000, with a stop-loss of 57,500, targeting 56,300, or buy Bank Nifty Futures near 56,300, with a stop-loss of 55,900, targeting 57,000 and 57,500.

Jigar S Patel, Senio Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Notably, the Bank Nifty has consistently held above the S3 Camarilla monthly pivot support near 56,600, highlighting sustained buying interest at lower levels. This support zone is technically significant as it coincides with the 200-period EMA on the 60-minute chart, reinforcing its strength as a key demand area. Furthermore, a bullish divergence on the 15-minute timeframe adds to the case for a potential reversal.

With price consolidating and multiple technical signals aligning, a directional breakout—likely to the upside—could be expected in the next one or two sessions, provided the 56,600 support level remains intact.

Key Resistance: 57,000, 57,400

Key Support: 56,600, 56,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 56,900–57,000 zone, with a stop-loss of 56,700, targeting 57,500.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

Bank Nifty continues to outperform the broader market, exhibiting sideways consolidation near its record high over the past three weeks. On the daily chart, the index is consistently holding above its 20-day EMA, indicating underlying positive strength. The RSI is positioned above the 50 mark and is on an upward trajectory, further confirming the bullish undertone.

Key Resistance: 57,600, 58,400

Key Support: 55,700, 54,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures, with a stop-loss of 55,700, targeting 57,600 and 58,400.

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