Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 hold 25,500, Bank Nifty stay above 10-DEMA amid consolidation?

Nifty closed in positive territory in the last trading session after having reversed from its short-term support of the 25,200–25,300 range. The short-term range seems to be very well defined at 26,000 to 25,000, as per the monthly options data — the 26,000 strike has the highest Call base, making it a supply zone, while 25,000 has the highest Put base, hence that becomes short-term support.

Now, within this range, the immediate support is at 25,200, from where the index just reversed, and 25,800 is an immediate resistance. So, within the broader range, there is a short-term range of 25,200–25,800, and the index is likely to trade within this band until the Bihar elections outcome.

The FIIs’ index short positions have again gone up from 92,000 contracts to 1.53 lakh contracts, indicating a negative bias in the market. The India VIX, too, has jumped from 10 to 12.5 levels, indicating short-term volatility. Hence, a positional long can be created only above the 26,000 level; until then, one can trade within this range. Sectoral rotation cannot be ruled out in this phase.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,800

Key Support: 25,300, 25,200

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,450–25,500, with a stop-loss of 25,190, targeting 25,700/25,800.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

At the current juncture, the Nifty 50 has taken strong support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with the previous swing high and an important trendline support zone. On the hourly chart, the index has also rebounded from its 200-period EMA, reinforcing the strength of this support area.

Additionally, the RSI on the daily timeframe has reversed from the 50 mark, indicating a revival of positive momentum after a brief pause. The confluence of these technical factors suggests that downside risk remains limited, and bullish momentum is likely to resume in the coming sessions, potentially driving the index higher.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,800

Key Support: 25,500, 25,300

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 25,700–25,600 zone, with a stop-loss of 25,500, targeting 25,900.

Shitij Gandhi, Senior Research Analyst (Technicals) at SMC Global Securities

On the derivatives front, strong Call open interest at the 25,800 and 26,000 strikes indicates supply pressure at higher levels, while fresh Put writing at 25,400 and 25,500 is lending support to the bulls. Technically, Nifty’s structure remains constructive above 25,400, though a clear breakout above 25,700 will be crucial to extend the move toward 26,000. Until then, the market mood stays cautiously optimistic with a slight bullish tilt.

Key Resistance: 25,700, 25,800

Key Support: 25,500, 25,300

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,650, with a stop-loss below 25,400, targeting 25,950.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty has been an outperformer in the recent upmove, wherein it managed to form a new lifetime high once again. The index has been consolidating post that; however, it has managed to hold on to the 58,000 level in the futures segment on a closing basis for the past two weeks. This is a positive sign, as the options data also indicate that until 58,000 levels are held on a closing basis, the bulls have an upper hand. The 58,500 strike, which is the ITM strike for the Put, has also started to witness additions, indicating a higher chance of a breakout on the upside.

The Nifty PSU banks have outperformed their peers — the private sector banks — in the recent run-up. Now, it’s time for private sector banks to catch up with the rally, and once this happens, it will be quite supportive for the index overall. Below 58,000, the index has support in the range of 56,800–57,000 levels, whereas above 58,500, it is likely to inch toward the 60,000 level.

Key Resistance: 58,500

Key Support: 57,000, 56,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the range of 57,500–58,000, with a stop-loss below 56,800, targeting 58,500 and 59,000.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

At the current juncture, the Bank Nifty has taken strong support near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the previous swing high, signaling a crucial support zone. On the daily chart, a bullish engulfing pattern has emerged, indicating renewed buying interest and potential trend reversal.

On the hourly chart, the index has also rebounded from its 200-period EMA, further confirming the strength of this support area. Additionally, the RSI on the daily timeframe has reversed from the 55 level, suggesting improving momentum. The confluence of these technical signals points toward limited downside risk and the likelihood of bullish momentum resuming in the coming sessions, potentially propelling the index higher.

Key Resistance: 58,500, 58,700

Key Support: 57,600, 57,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 58,150–58,250 zone, with a stop-loss of 57,700, targeting 58,800.

Shitij Gandhi, Senior Research Analyst (Technicals) at SMC Global Securities

On the derivatives front, both option writers were seen active at the 58,000 and 58,500 Call strikes, which points toward further consolidation in the index. Technically, the index is consolidating above its short-term moving averages, hinting at a neutral-to-positive bias as long as it holds above 57,500. However, a breakout above 58,400 could open the door for a rally toward new highs, while a slip below 57,500 may trigger mild profit booking. Overall, the tone stays cautiously positive for the index.

Key Resistance: 58,500, 58,800

Key Support: 57,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 58,000, with a stop-loss below 57,700, targeting 58,500.

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