Despite profit booking on Tuesday, the benchmark Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty remained in positive mode. If the Nifty 50 manages to defend its previous day’s low (25,876), a rebound toward 26,000 is possible in the upcoming sessions, and only sustaining above this level can give strength to the index for a move toward the 26,100 hurdle, while the immediate support is placed at 25,800. Meanwhile, as long as the Bank Nifty holds the 58,800–58,600 zone (lows of the previous two sessions), the upward journey toward 59,100, followed by 59,300–59,500, is possible, experts said.
On November 18, the Nifty 50 fell 103 points to 25,910, while the Bank Nifty slipped 63 points to 58,899. The market breadth was dominated by bears, with about 2,009 shares under pressure against 838 shares that gained on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities
The Nifty snapped its six-session winning streak, as broad-based selling dominated the session. Despite the pullback, the short-term trend remains up, with the index holding comfortably above its 11-, 20-, and 50-day DMAs. On the derivatives front, the FIIs’ long-to-short ratio in index futures fell to a month’s low of 0.14. This extremely oversold reading indicates the likelihood of short covering by FIIs in the coming sessions, which could lend support to the broader market.
On the higher side, immediate resistance is placed in the vicinity of the 26,000–26,100 levels, where Call writing has been observed in the weekly options. Above 26,100, Nifty could extend the rally towards the all-time high of 26,277 and beyond. On the downside, immediate support is placed in the vicinity of the 25,700–25,800 levels, followed by 25,500, levels at which Put writing has been observed. Therefore, we recommend a buy-on-dips strategy in Nifty with a stop-loss at the 25,500 level.
Key Resistance: 26,100, 26,277
Key Support: 25,725, 25,500
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 25,725, with a stop-loss of 25,500, targeting 26,100 and 26,277 (cash levels).
Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors
Nifty is protecting the prior day’s low on a closing basis for the past seven trading sessions, suggesting that the daily trend is still on the positive side. However, over the short term, the index is failing to build up momentum above the 26,000 mark, and we are seeing consolidation between 25,850 and 26,030 levels for the past two days.
In the previous session, Nifty retested the upper end of the range, and we saw minor profit booking from resistance levels. Amongst the sectors, a broader-based sell-off was seen, with Metal and Realty being the top laggards in the prior session. For now, a decisive break above 26,030 is required for fresh buying to emerge.
One should trade with caution and create fresh positions only on a break of the range amid progressive talks on the India–US trade deal. A break below 25,850 followed by 25,730 can suggest that a short-term top has formed. On the other hand, a breakout above 26,030 is needed for fresh upside momentum to begin.
Key Resistance: 26,300
Key Support: 25,730
Strategy: Long positions can be created above 26,030 with a stop-loss at 25,880 and a target of 26,180 followed by 26,300 levels.
Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta
Despite profit booking, the Nifty continues to trade above the 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger Band) placed at 25,808, which is acting as a key support zone. It is also holding above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,779 of the rally from the September 30 low (24,587) to the October 23 high (26,104). This confluence of technical indicators reinforces a strong support area, and a decisive close below 25,779 could accelerate downside momentum.
On the upside, the index is facing repeated rejection near 26,050, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way for further upside extension. The daily RSI stands at 60.18, marginally below its signal line, indicating a slight loss of bullish momentum.
From the derivatives standpoint, the weekly options data shows unwinding in in-the-money Put positions, hinting at a mild bearish bias in the near term. Despite the short-term weakness and the possibility of further profit booking, the broader structure of the market remains constructive. Hence, traders may consider adopting a buy-on-dips approach and utilizing the current decline to initiate fresh long positions.
Key Resistance: 26,041, 26,104
Key Support: 25,800, 25,718
Strategy: Initiate long positions in Nifty Futures around 25,800 (cash reference) for an upside target of 26,041, while maintaining a stop-loss at 25,718.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities
The short-term trend in the Bank Nifty remains firmly bullish, as it is forming a bullish higher-top–higher-bottom formation on the daily and weekly charts. Key momentum indicators and oscillators, such as the RSI and MFI, are in rising mode and placed above 50 on the daily chart, suggesting strength in the current rally.
Amongst the Put options, significant open interest is placed at the 58,000–58,500 strike prices, indicating a strong support base at these levels. The FIIs’ long-to-short ratio in index futures remains in the oversold territory, suggesting a higher possibility of short covering in the near term, which may further support bullish momentum. Given the sharp up-move witnessed in recent weeks, adopting a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable in Bank Nifty, with a stop-loss placed at the 57,500 level.
Key Resistance: 59,200, 59,900
Key Support: 58,600, 58,050
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 58,600, with a stop-loss of 58,050, targeting 59,200 and 59,900.
Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors
Bank Nifty has broken out of the Flag & Pole pattern in the prior week, signaling continuation of the ongoing uptrend. The index has taken clear leadership and continued to climb toward fresh highs with each passing day over the past week, with PSU Banks being major contributors. This breakout aligns with the start of a fresh impulse wave 3 higher, supported by sustained buying.
Also, the Bollinger Bands have started to expand with prices sustaining above the upper band, which is a bullish sign. The RSI is trading near 70, reflecting strong momentum. The indicator has been showing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that buyers continue to remain in control. Despite being near the overbought zone, it has not yet displayed signs of negative divergence, keeping the outlook positive on a daily basis.
Overall, the tone for Bank Nifty remains bullish as long as the index stays above the mid-Bollinger Band, which is near the 58,140 level. A break above 59,110 is required for bullish momentum to continue.
Key Resistance: 59,700
Key Support: 58,140
Strategy: Long positions can be created above 59,110 with a stop-loss of 58,800 and targets of 59,420 followed by 59,700 levels.
Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta
Bank Nifty registered a fresh all-time high and continues to trade within a rising channel, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows—an indication of sustained bullish momentum. Over the last two sessions, the index has given a decisive breakout above 58,600, a level that previously acted as a strong barrier, thereby opening the door for further upside.
On the hourly chart, immediate support is seen at the 20-SMA (middle Bollinger Band) near 58,577, followed by the 40-EMA at 58,584, reinforcing a strong demand zone on dips.
The daily RSI is placed around 70, comfortably above the signal line, highlighting persistent positive momentum.
From the derivatives perspective, weekly options data shows a bullish undertone, with notable writing in in-the-money Call strikes—suggesting expectations of stability or further gains.
Overall, the broader market structure for Bank Nifty remains firmly constructive, and a buy-on-dips approach continues to be favoured.
Key Resistance: 59,103, 59,261
Key Support: 58,777, 58,584
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near the cash level of 58,777 for a target of 59,261, with a stop-loss at 58,584.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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