The market lost almost all its previous day's gains and closed half a percent lower on October 3, but the Nifty50 smartly defended 19,500, which is expected to play a crucial role on either side of the trade. If it closes well below the 19,500 mark, then 19,300-19,200 can be a possibility, but holding the same can again raise hopes for a move towards 19,700-19,800 levels, experts said.
The BSE Sensex declined 316 points to 65,512, while the Nifty50 dropped 110 points to 19,529 amid volatility and formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a minor lower shadow on the daily charts, making lower high, lower low formation. The index settled below the 50-day EMA (exponential moving average placed at 19,560).
"Towards the downside, the index found support at the ascending trendline on the daily chart. The sentiment looks pessimistic for the short term," Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities said.
Looking ahead, he feels the level of 19,480 is expected to serve as a pivotal "make or break" point. If there is a decisive decline below 19,480, it might trigger heavy selling in the market, he said, adding on the upside, 19,600 will continue to remain a significant resistance level.
However, the broader markets outperformed frontline indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices rising 0.2 percent and half a percent respectively.
We have collated 15 data points to help you spot profitable trades:
Note: The open interest (OI) and volume data of stocks are the aggregates of three-month data and not just the current month.
Key support and resistance levels on Nifty
The pivot point calculator indicates that the Nifty may be taking support at 19,489, followed by 19,455 and 19,400. On the higher side, 19,599 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 19,633 and 19,687.
On October 3, the Bank Nifty remained rangebound with a negative bias and settled 185 points lower at 44,399, forming a bearish candlestick pattern with a lower shadow on the daily timeframe. The index remained below 50-day as well as 20-day EMA, but has been taking support at upward sloping support trendline.
"The pullbacks towards the key hourly moving averages are being sold into and hence until the bank Nifty does not sustain above 44,700 – 44,800 zone, we can expect the weakness to continue. On the downside the Bank Nifty can slip towards 44,000 – 43,800," Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said.
As per the pivot point calculator, the banking index is expected to take support at 44,279, followed by 44,203 and 44,080. On the upside, the initial resistance is at 44,526, then at 44,603 and at 44,726.
The weekly options data suggested that the maximum Call open interest (OI) was seen at 19,700 strike with 1.05 crore contracts, which can act as a key resistance for the Nifty. It was followed by the 19,600 strike, which had 99.82 lakh contracts, while 20,000 strike had 87.37 lakh contracts.
Meaningful Call writing was seen at 19,600 strike, which added 62.01 lakh contracts followed by 19,500 and 19,700 strikes, which added 43.32 lakh and 38.66 lakh contracts.
The maximum Call unwinding was at 20,300 strike, which shed 10.9 lakh contracts followed by 20,200 strike and 20,400 strike, which shed 7.16 lakh contracts and 1.9 lakh contracts.
On the Put side, the maximum open interest was at 19,500 strike with 81.87 lakh contracts. This can be an important support for the Nifty in the coming sessions.
It was followed by 19,400 strike, comprising 58.78 lakh contracts and 19,000 strike with 50 lakh contracts.
The meaningful Put writing was at 19,300 strike, which added 17.76 lakh contracts, followed by 19,500 strike and 19,400 strike, which added 17.16 lakh and 13.73 lakh contracts.
Put unwinding was at 19,600 strike, which shed 33.73 lakh contracts, followed by 19,700 strike and 19,800 strike, which shed 14.34 lakh and 3.15 lakh contracts.
Stocks with high delivery percentage
A high delivery percentage suggests that investors are showing interest in the stock. Oracle Financial, Bharti Airtel, Britannia Industries, Max Financial Services, and SRF have seen the highest delivery among the F&O stocks.
A long build-up was seen in 52 stocks namely, Mahanagar Gas, Marico, Polycab India, Shriram Finance, and Coforge. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.
Based on the OI percentage, a total of 34 stocks, including Maruti Suzuki India, MCX India, Balkrishna Industries, Bharti Airtel, and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals saw a long unwinding. A decline in OI and price indicates long unwinding.
76 stocks see a short build-up
A short build-up was seen in 76 stocks, including Coromandel International, Indiabulls Housing Finance, India Cements, Dalmia Bharat, and Siemens. An increase in OI along with a fall in price points to a build-up of short positions.
Based on the OI percentage, 26 stocks were on the short-covering list. These included Apollo Tyres, Navin Fluorine International, IRCTC, Federal Bank, and State Bank of India. A decrease in OI along with a price increase is an indication of short-covering.
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Investors meeting on October 4
Stocks in the news
Updater Services: The facility management services company will list its equity shares on the BSE and NSE, in the T+3 timeline, on October 4. The issue price has been fixed at Rs 300 per share. The allotment date was September 30.
Maruti Suzuki India: The country's largest car manufacturing company has received a draft Assessment Order for FY20. In the said order, certain additions or disallowances amounting to Rs 2,159.7 crore with respect to returned income (the income disclosed by the company in its income tax return) have been proposed. The company will file its objections before the Dispute Resolution Panel.
HDFC Bank: Arvind Kapil, the Group Head will now spearhead the mortgage business, and Arvind Vohra, the Group Head will move as Group Head of retail assets. Parag Rao, Group Head, will be additionally responsible for marketing, and liability product group, while Smita Bhagat & Sampath Kumar will be the two new retail branch banking heads. Ramesh Lakshminarayanan, currently the CIO, would lead the IT & digital function, while Rakesh Singh, the Group Head would spearhead the creation of banking as a service (BaaS), reports CNBC-TV18.
Raymond: The company said the board members have approved to invest up to Rs 301 crore in one or more tranches in Ten X Realty, a step-down wholly owned subsidiary of the company. Out of the said investment, the company will invest up to Rs 125 crore in the form of redeemable preference shares, and the balance amount of Rs 176 crore will be invested by providing an inter-corporate deposit (ICD) to Ten X Realty.
Adani Enterprises: Green Vitality RSC, the 100 percent subsidiary of Abu Dhabi's International Holding Company (IHC), has bought 6.43 lakh shares, which is equivalent to 0.06 percent of paid-up equity, in Adani Enterprises via open market transactions on October 3. With this, IHC's shareholding in the company increased from 4.98 percent, to 5.04 percent.
Avenue Supermarts: The D-Mart operator has reported standalone revenue from operations at Rs 12,308 crore for the quarter ended September FY24, up 18.5 percent over Rs 10,385 crore in same period last year. The total number of stores as of September 2023 stood at 336.
South Indian Bank: The private sector lender has reported gross advances at Rs 74,975 crore for the quarter ended September FY24, up 10.3 percent over a year-ago period, and total deposits increased by 9.8 percent to Rs 97,146 crore during the same period, as per provisional data. CASA grew by 2.01 percent YoY to Rs 31,162 crore in Q2FY24.
Hero MotoCorp: The world's largest two-wheeler maker is set to commence deliveries of its first co-developed premium motorcycle Harley-Davidson X440 on October 15. It has been organising test rides for pre-booked customers since September 1, and the new booking window will open on October 16.
Fund Flow (Rs Crore)
Foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth Rs 2,034.14 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased Rs 1,361.02 crore worth of stocks on October 3, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed.
Stocks under F&O ban on NSE
The NSE has added Indiabulls Housing Finance to its F&O ban list for October 4. Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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