The Nifty 50 recorded a 0.4 percent gain on September 17, surpassing the 25,250 level and continuing the higher highs-higher lows pattern, supported by bullish momentum indicators—especially ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting outcome, where the central bank cut rates by 25 bps and signaled two more rate cuts this year. Experts expect the index to reclaim 25,550 and then 25,669 (the current year's high, hit on June 30, from where selling pressure had previously resumed) in the upcoming sessions, provided it holds the 25,150–25,000 zone as a crucial support area. A move below this support could invite some selling pressure.
Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:
1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,330)
Resistance based on pivot points: 25,345, 25,361, and 25,389
Support based on pivot points: 25,290, 25,273, and 25,246
Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle on the daily timeframe and tested the upper line of Bollinger Bands, with the bands expanding, indicating a positive trend. The 10, 20, and 50-day EMAs are trending upward, while the RSI (at 66.15) and MACD continue to show a bullish crossover, with further strength in the histogram. However, the Stochastic RSI has remained sideways since the beginning of the current week. All of these factors indicate continued bullish momentum.
2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (55,493)
Resistance based on pivot points: 55,544, 55,637, and 55,788
Support based on pivot points: 55,243, 55,150, and 54,999
Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,595, 56,075
Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,392, 53,393
Special Formation: The Bank Nifty posted another healthy bullish candle, rising 0.63 percent with significant volumes, marking its 11th consecutive day of uptrend. The index is now trading above all key moving averages and the midline of Bollinger Bands. The RSI has also inched closer to 60, while the MACD maintains a bullish crossover, despite being below the zero line, with further strength in the histogram. All of this suggests continued bullishness in the Bank Nifty.
According to the weekly options data, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 86.02 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,500 strike (72.23 lakh contracts), and the 25,400 strike (51.93 lakh contracts).
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,500 strike, which saw an addition of 39.47 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,400 and 25,350 strikes, which added 28.75 lakh and 21.33 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 25,200 strike, which shed 7.06 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,100 and 25,000 strikes, which shed 4.2 lakh and 3.2 lakh contracts, respectively.
On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,200 strike (with 76.14 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 25,300 strike (69.21 lakh contracts) and the 25,000 strike (62.19 lakh contracts).
The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,300 strike, which saw an addition of 51.87 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,250 and 25,350 strikes, which added 32.8 lakh and 27.94 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Put unwinding seen in the 24,700-26,100 strike band.
5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data
According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 56,000 strike, with 13.62 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 57,000 strike (12.29 lakh contracts) and the 55,000 strike (10.08 lakh contracts).
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 55,600 strike (with the addition of 1 lakh contracts), followed by the 56,500 strike (91,735 contracts), and the 55,500 strike (66,575 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 57,000 strike, which shed 2.23 lakh contracts, followed by 55,000 and 55,200 strikes, which shed 2.09 lakh and 1.67 lakh contracts, respectively.
6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data
On the Put side, the 54,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 14.78 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 55,000 strike (14.04 lakh contracts) and the 54,500 strike (10.08 lakh contracts).
The maximum Put writing was observed at the 55,500 strike (which added 2.44 lakh contracts), followed by the 55,300 strike (1.76 lakh contracts) and the 55,400 strike (1.58 lakh contracts). The maximum Put winding was seen at the 57,000 strike, which shed 3.19 lakh contracts, followed by the 55,100 and 54,000 strikes, which shed 52,430 and 40,700 contracts, respectively.
The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, fell to 1.21 on September 17, compared to 1.29 in the previous session.
The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.
9) India VIX
The fear index, India VIX, remained in a lower zone, falling 0.24 percent to 10.25, which favours the bulls and signals low volatility in the short term.
A long build-up was seen in 72 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.
11) Long Unwinding (34 Stocks)
34 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.
12) Short Build-up (58 Stocks)
58 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.
13) Short-Covering (50 Stocks)
50 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.
Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.
Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil
Stocks retained in F&O ban: Angel One, Oracle Financial Services Software, RBL Bank
Stocks removed from F&O ban: HFCL
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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