Broader indices performed in line with the main indices in the volatile week amid escalating trade war between US-China after China’s retaliation. However, there was some relief at the end of the week after the US announced a 90-day pause on tariff hikes for most countries, excluding China.
During the week, the BSE Large-cap, Mid-cap, and BSE Small-Cap indices shed between 0.2-0.5 percent.
For the week, the BSE Sensex index fell 207.43 points or 0.27 percent to end at 75,157.26, and Nifty50 declined 75.9 points or 0.33 percent to close at 22,828.55.
On the sectoral front, the Nifty Realty index shed 4 percent, the Nifty Metal index was down 3 percent, the Nifty IT index declined 2.3 percent, Nifty PSU Bank index shed 1.5 percent. On the other Nifty Consumer Durable and FMCG added more than 3 percent each.
"The Indian market finally closed with a positive bias after a very volatile week, aided by an unexpected pause on reciprocal tariffs by the US providing relief amid uncertainty. Sectors like IT, metals, and capital goods saw a relief rally in expectation of an improvement in the near-term outlook. However, the intensity of the US-China trade war will be crucially viewed by the market, which can have the potential to offset the impact of the current pause on trade tariffs on other emerging markets," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.
"On the other hand, the market has entered the result season with a subdued expectation. The initial results from the IT major acknowledge the impact of trade tensions and expect a delay in discretionary spending,"
"The focus will be on the outcome of the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between India and the US, which will add more colour to the trade potential of the domestic market. The supportive domestic environment with an ease in interest rates and a benign inflation trajectory is encouraging investors to have a balanced portfolio to aid for a better risk-reward in the long term."
"Looking ahead, we expect inflation is likely to moderate further on account of cooling food prices and would give room for RBI to remain accommodative. We expect caution is likely to prevail due to the holiday-led truncated week," he added.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling this week as they sold equities worth Rs 20,911.30 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought equities worth Rs 21,955.62 crore.
The BSE Small-cap index ended marginally lower. Gensol Engineering, Jindal Drilling Industries, Unichem Laboratories, Themis Medicare, Vakrangee, Time Technoplast, International Gemmological Institute India, Navkar Corporation, Renaissance Global, JSW Holdings, Kabra Extrusion Technik, Suraj Estate Developers, DEE Development Engineers, Universal Cables, Indostar Capital Finance, Carraro India, Axiscades Technologies fell between 10-18 percent.
On the other hand, Nacl Industries, Hampton Sky Realty, Rajoo Engineers, BL Kashyap & Sons, Raghav Productivity Enhancers, Archean Chemical Industries, Sadhana Nitrochem, Senco Gold, Avanti Feeds, Jyothy Labs rise between 10-21 percent.
Where is Nifty50 headed?
Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities
We believe that the current market texture is extremely volatile and uncertain; therefore, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for positional traders. In the near future, the 50-day and 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 23,000/75800 would act as crucial resistance zones. On the downside, retracement support is positioned at 22,500/74200. Technical setup indicates that as long as the market is trading above 22,500/74200, the pullback formation is likely to continue.
On the higher side, if 23,000/75800 is breached, it could push the market toward 23,200/76400. Conversely, if it falls below 22,500/74200, market sentiment could shift negatively, and traders may prefer to exit their long positions.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities
Technically, this market action indicates a decisive bounce back in the market in the short term after a violent decline amidst tariff war.
Nifty is currently placed at the edge of multiple hurdles like the previous opening down gap of 7th April and daily 10 and 20 EMA around 22800-22900 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a bullish meeting line type candle pattern. This is a positive indication.
The short-term trend of Nifty remains positive. A sustainable move above 22900-23000 levels could open the upside target of 23400-23500 levels in a quick period of time. Immediate support is placed at 22700 levels.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities
The Nifty faced resistance around the 21-EMA on the daily timeframe, leading to a close off the day’s high. The trend appears bearish unless it decisively moves above 23,000, where significant open interest has been added.
On the downside, support is placed at 22,750; a break below this level could intensify the bearish sentiment. Conversely, a decisive move above 23,000 may trigger a rally towards 23,500, as suggested by the positive divergence in the RSI.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
