Michael Burry, the investor immortalised by The Big Short, has reignited the Tesla valuation debate, and then quickly shut down the obvious follow-up question.
After calling Tesla 'ridiculously overvalued,' Burry wrote on X that he is not shorting the stock. “I am not short,” he said, responding to a user who asked whether he would bet against Tesla.
The clarification matters because Burry’s reputation is built on big, contrarian bets, including his call ahead of the 2008 housing crash, and because he has targeted frothy parts of the market before.
Where the 'overvalued' line came from
Burry’s assessment wasn’t a one-off. He has made similar comments in his paid Substack notes, warning that Tesla’s sales are slipping and that shorting the stock has been 'dangerous' and expensive due to pricey put options.
In other words: he’s not a Tesla believer, he’s just not volunteering to stand in front of the stampede.
Tesla’s own numbers added fuel to the debate
Burry’s comments landed just as Tesla made an unusual disclosure that rattled investors: the company publicly posted a set of average analyst delivery estimates on its investor relations page, signalling a softer outlook than many were expecting.
Those estimates point to about 1.6–1.64 million vehicle deliveries in 2025, down from roughly 1.79 million in 2024, implying a second consecutive annual decline.
Deliveries are Tesla’s closest proxy for vehicle sales, even though the company doesn’t define the metric with the precision investors typically get from traditional automakers.
The stock is near records despite a messy year
Tesla shares have swung hard in 2025, hit by competitive pressure (especially from Chinese EV makers) and recurring reputational blowback around Elon Musk’s political commentary.
Still, the stock has remained buoyant on future-facing narratives, especially robotaxis, autonomy, and robotics, and closed at an all-time high of $489.88 in December.
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