The Nifty 50 extended its southward journey and formed a lower-high, lower-low structure for the second consecutive session on November 24, closing below the psychological 26,000 mark with a four-tenth percent loss ahead of monthly F&O contracts expiry due on November 25. The index moved closer to the previous week's low of 25,850; if it decisively breaks this level, bears may take control, with the next support placed at the 25,700 zone. As long as the index stays below the previous week's high of 26,250, range-bound trading may continue, according to experts.
The Nifty 50 opened higher above 26,100 but could not sustain those gains due to profit-booking in the last one-and-a-half hours of trade. It closed at 25,960, down 109 points, with above-average volumes, forming a long bearish candle on the daily charts—indicating the emergence of selling pressure near all-time highs.
“This is not a good sign, and this market action suggests chances of more weakness in the short term,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
The index closed just above the 10-day EMA (25,953) while sustaining well above other key moving averages. The RSI dropped to 57.38, and the Stochastic RSI showed a bearish crossover. The MACD inclined downward, though it remained above the reference line, and its histogram signalled gradually fading momentum. All of this indicates caution.
According to Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking, the next crucial support lies at the 21-DMA around 25,850, and a breakdown below this could push the Nifty further toward 25,700.
Conversely, a move above 26,180 would improve sentiment and potentially open the way toward 26,300, he said.
With the November series monthly F&O expiry approaching, heightened volatility is expected, and the Nifty is likely to fluctuate within a broader range of 25,800–26,200, he added.
Monthly options data indicated that the Nifty may trade in the 25,700–26,200 range in the short term.
The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 26,100 strike, followed by the 26,200 and 26,300 strikes, with maximum Call writing at the 26,100, 26,150 and 26,300 strikes. Meanwhile, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,500 and 25,700 strikes, with maximum Put writing at the 25,850, 25,950 and 25,500 strikes.
Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty was also under pressure, declining 32 points to 58,835 and forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow and a minor lower shadow on the daily timeframe, indicating pressure at higher levels despite minor buying support. The index still sustained above all key moving averages and held previous week's low of (58,600), but momentum indicators signalled caution.
“Going ahead, the 20-day EMA zone of 58,400–58,300 will act as a critical support for the index. A sustained move below 58,300 could trigger further downside towards 57,700, indicating a deeper correction,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
On the upside, the 59,200–59,300 zone will serve as a key hurdle, and only a decisive breakout above this range can revive bullish momentum in the banking space, he added.
Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, corrected 2.9 percent to 13.24 after a sharp spike the previous day, but it remains at higher zones, signalling discomfort and caution for bulls.
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