Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the Founder and Director of Ayan Analytics, which has developed ZodiacAnalyst, a research software with time and price charting tools.
Review of the Last Week:
On the 30th and 31st, traders and investors must have felt the highest pressure, as technically there was more than a 50 percent probability of a steep fall when Nifty traded below 23,520. It is challenging to maintain positions when a psychological level is breached. If you're constantly monitoring the screen, you're likely to act, which may seem rational in the moment but could appear irrational in hindsight. The year 2025 started on a very positive note. The three-day candles are extremely promising and have given signs of short-term bottoming out in the markets. Most of the sector indices show signs of the first bounce, and surely a pullback is on the cards.
Technical:
Last week, I was practically away from the markets, and the best part of it was being in a no-network zone, which makes it even better as you are away from all sorts of distractions. A pure oxygen zone rejuvenates the brain cells. Being calm is the most important part of investing and trading.
"Do today what you can do tomorrow."
The opposite approach is often the most effective in speculative trading markets. Technical analysis is not just about charts or drawing lines; it's about understanding the emotions behind each candle and indicator, and ultimately gauging the strength of the collective consciousness.
The point 23,263 for the down move and targets, 24,858 for the upside move and targets. The affirmation or confirmation zone for the downside is 23,520-23,460 and on the upside 24,190 and 24,560.
Signs on the charts are considerably turning in favour of the bullish camp. A pre-budget rally and speculative emotions will get triggered, and suddenly markets will be active with a lot of noise.
The 2025 upward target for Nifty is 26,800. The confirmation of the target is at the crossing of 24,468. Ideally, in the next 45 days, it should happen, and a monthly closing above 24,468 will confirm 26,800 within 5 months.
TimeMap:
The above technical write-up is not for intra-week trading; it is a 15- to 200-day view. In this section, we try to keep it very specific to weekly and max 45-day views. While the day-wise write-up is posted, it really yields the best results if used in a 72-hour trade life instead of pure intraday.
Data analysis indicates a 62% probability of a negative closing, though the negativity could be nominal. In case of a positive close, which has a 38% probability, it would be more than 2%.
The 8th and 9th planet aspects are negative, and the possibility of a big down move on indices cannot be ruled out.
The PSU sector is coming in very positive for the week. Many very large-cap natural resource stocks would see a lot of positive action in the markets, especially the power sector.
January 06, 2025: Monday: S.7: U. Bhadrapada: Bullish Day
Tithi 7 is positive and often gives a momentum breakout on extended rallies. Nakshatra Lord Saturn plays true value actions or rationality from excess on both sides, so it’s the finest day for mean reversion in oversold and overbought stocks, based on both technical and fundamental analysis. BTST (Buy today sell tomorrow) is recommended, especially in stocks hammered in the last 45 minutes. Technology Midcap is showing positive flows, while large caps might not participate in the bull wave.
January 07, 2025: Tuesday: S.8: Revati: Volatile Day
Tithi gives the best value buying or bottom fishing opportunity. Nakshatra is sensitive, and participants tend to overreact to external news, which gives an opportunity to invest. Invest in housing and real estate-related ancillary companies. Consumer brand companies should look for STBT (Sell today, Buy tomorrow) on expensive, hyped companies of the new age economy. Participate a little later, even after lunch, for better clarity.
January 08, 2025: Wednesday: S.9: Ashwini: Auspicious Day of the Week
Being an auspicious day, ETF SIP is highly recommended. Tithi Navami in the first half often gives positive momentum, and sentiment in the market is very bullish. When things get comfortable, markets will suddenly witness pressure, especially after lunchtime, with many stocks breaking their weekly lows. From the opening, look for bullish pattern failures on 15- and 40-minute charts, and at confirmation, participate big in it. Loads of money can be made in a few minutes. It’s the best day for fast profits, provided homework is proper and the execution plan is implemented correctly. BTST without fail.
January 09, 2025: Thursday: S.10: Bharni: Bullish Day
A gap down would indicate bright chances of intraday V-shape recovery in many stocks, providing a big money-making opportunity. As the name suggests, Bharani gives a pullback that is as good as an intraday rally. Slight late participation will provide a good opportunity, and a contrarian approach will yield the best results. As per planet aspects, we’ve mentioned the possibility of a big fall on the 8th and 9th. The 8th is best for selling, and the 9th is best for contrarian BUY trades, possibly post-lunch. STBT in select bouncing but weak stocks.
January 10, 2025: Friday: S.11: Kruttika: Bearish Day Tithi is auspicious and bearish, giving a slow poison effect in the markets. The meaning of the name Kruttika is to ask yourself: "Why am I doing this trade?" It’s like a second check and confirmation before entering a trade. Once you are satisfied with the answer, get aggressive, and pyramiding the trade in successive steps could give quick, best results.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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