Rohit Srivastava, founder of Strike Money and Indiacharts, advised staying fully invested and deploy capital completely as he sees the next big phase of the bull market ahead.
"The initial rally seen in the last few weeks was focussed on large caps but now we are seeing a shift toward midcaps starting on the eve of Dipawali," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
He expects that midcap and smallcap stocks will do much better than large caps in the Samvat 2082. So, chasing growth in midcaps will continue to remain a strategy that will reward long term investors in the year to come, he believes.
As a veteran technical and derivatives expert, what are your key learnings from Samvat 2081? Broadly, what are your expectations for Samvat 2082?
2081 taught us that markets do not go up one way but also that corrections offer great opportunities to invest especially when the news is all bad. This year was full of tremendous bad news from US tariffs on India to the India-Pak dispute but markets absorbed that and moved higher.
What is your trading strategy for Muhurat Trading Day?
To stay invested and deploy capital completely as the next big phase of the bull market is ahead of us. The initial rally seen in the last few weeks was focussed on large caps but now we are seeing a shift toward midcaps starting on the eve of Dipawali and that trend might continue.
I expect that midcap and smallcap stocks will do much better than large caps but the market as a whole is now setup to rise to the next level.
Are you strongly bullish on Nifty 50 for the new Samvat? Do you believe it can reach the 29,000–30,000 zone, especially after a relatively muted ~6% gain in the outgoing Samvat?
Markets always surprise. Like they say past performance is not an indication of future performance. So if the last one year was poor the setup is now for things to get much better. During the last year Gold and Silver outperformed Equities as an asset class. I think the time has come for the reverse to be true and we should be positioned for stocks to do better than precious metals.
What are your contra sector bets for Samvat 2082?
I would not like to use the word contra because the best money in a bull market is made by participating in the growth themes that are already discovered and where growth may continue into the future.
All the more if those stocks have seen a correction to reasonable valuations it makes even more sense. So a bull market in wave 3 is about participating in the market. The stage of finding contra bets was in 2020-2021.
Do you expect the banking index to be the star performer in the new Samvat? What kind of returns do you foresee?
Yes, it is true that bank stocks were not the top performers between 2021-2024. However, this was not accompanied by a slowdown in earnings growth. The sector continued to grow, and the valuations came off significantly to the point where based on the 10 years chart of valuations prices are at minus two standard deviations.
From there we have seen the start of a new move in banking and financial stocks since the start of 2025. This sector is now taking the lead and will reflect the expanding Indian economy. Thus, it should do well as new money gets allocated to NBFCs, PSU banks and private banks with the former being the higher beta play compared to the latter.
How are you positioning yourself in the midcap and smallcap space for the new year?
Individual stocks where the 2–3-year CAGR in earnings growth as continued in the 30-50% range must be considered as that is where the best returns will follow.
While investing in growth valuations are often less of an issue. The ratio chart of Midcaps to Nifty shows a clear trend of Midcaps outperforming the large caps and that trend has not changed. So chasing growth in midcaps will continue to remain a strategy that will reward long term investors in the year to come.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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