We don’t pay attention to quarterly earnings or consensus forecasts. That’s performance investing, not value investing. - Marty Whitman
Second line stocks fell harder than their large-cap counterparts, but the market sees it as no more than a healthy correction, after the run-up of the last couple of months. With US equities in a bull market territory despite concerns of a slowing economy, the Indian market should do even better, given the stronger macro picture.
Passive foreign fund flows—money coming through exchange traded funds and index funds—continue to be strong, though a section of the market is beginning to fret about valuations. Fourth-quarter numbers were better than expected, but Kotak Institutional Equities’ Sanjeev Prasad says that is because the market is focussing only on the positives. He says aggregate net profit growth was 7 percent ahead of expectations, but a lot of it was driven by one-time incomes. Many of the wealthy traders are cautious about buying at current prices as they feel the risk-reward ratio is not attractive.
IEX
The stock was hammered on Thursday, falling 8 percent on news of the government approving market coupling in the electricity sector. Under this, bids and offers across power exchanges in the country will be aggregated and matched to arrive at a uniform market clearing price (MCP). Bad news for IEX because once the proposal is implemented, liquidity will improve on
all the power trading exchanges. IEX now has a clear edge over its rivals because it offers much better liquidity and hence better rates to buyers and sellers of power on its platform.
The darling of the 2021 bull run, IEX, has fallen out of favour with the market and is trading at half its peak value of December 2021, as trading volumes and power prices stabilised on easing of coal supply. An immediate level a trader will be keeping an eye out for is 126, the 52-week low for the stock. Open interest in the futures shot up 19 percent, indicating build-up of short positions.
MCX
The stock climbed around 3 percent in Thursday’s bearish session as some of the deep-pocket traders are accumulating the shares. This appears to have triggered some short-covering in the futures. Bulls are betting on a sharp decline in operating costs once the migration to the new trading platform developed by TCS is complete. The timing of the migration and its smooth implementation are now the focus for Morgan Stanley.
The broking firm recently re-iterated its 'underperform' rating on the stock with a price target of Rs 1,125, after the bourse’s fourth-quarter earnings. It expects the stock to trade at a 30 percent discount to its mean one-year forward P/E because of sluggish relative earnings progression and uncertainty on its migration to the new platform.
Interglobe Aviation
The stock continued to climb higher on Thursday and has now jumped 34 percent from its March lows. What is working in favour of the stock? Stable crude prices and added boost to June quarter earnings because of the problems at GoAir and SpiceJet. That has encouraged investors to look beyond the supply overhang in the stock because of periodic selling by the Gangwal promoter group.
Barring trouble on the crude prices front, it seems to be the perfect flying conditions for the bulls in Interglobe Aviation. Huge call writing was seen in the 2,500 strike on Thursday, with open interest more than doubling. This could potentially act as a resistance level for the stock in the short term if it is smart money that is writing the options.
The new cigarette
Is crypto the new cigarette? Because the more regulators try to clamp down on the product, the more users find a way to have a few sinful drags.
Almost one in 10 people surveyed by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority owned cryptocurrencies in 2022, more than twice the number a year earlier, reports FT. From October 8, companies advertising crypto assets in the UK will have to warn customers they should not expect protection if their investment goes bust. Companies will also need to introduce a “cooling off” period for first-time investors. This comes amid the SEC going after crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase for violating norms.
As the saying goes, the best pleasures of life are illegal, immoral or fattening.
Rate cuts
China’s largest banks cut deposit rates on Thursday, a development that market players see as a sign of interest rates declining in the months ahead. Lower interest rates are a disincentive for savers to park money in banks, while they are an incentive for borrowers. China consumption recovery following the lifting of Covid restrictions has been much slower than what was widely expected, and there are enough signs of the economy being in trouble. Analysts tracking China say the government needs to fix the problem of rising unemployment, without which lower interest rates may not encourage people to spend more.
Stop this Game
Videogame retailer GameStop - a favourite of meme-stock investors – plunged nearly 20 percent on Thursday after its fifth CEO exit in five years. Former Amazon.com executive Matt Furlong was appointed in June 2021 to steer the online expansion of the brick-and-mortar firm. 2021 was also the height of the meme-stock frenzy which propelled GameStop, AMC and other Reddit favourites to dizzying heights.
GameStop shares have dropped nearly 80 percent from the $120.75 peak they hit during those unhinged times.
Abhishek Mukherjee contributed to this article.
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