Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities
Nifty trend remains weak with resistance seen at 15870 - unless the same is crossed expect weakness to continue.
Short term volatility continues to remain high. Broadly expect pressure to continue while limited stock specific risk definable opportunities are available.
Select Auto, banking and Midcap energy stocks look attractive from risk perspective. Expect continues selling pressure in Metals space.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas
The Nifty has stepped into a short term consolidation mode recently & accordingly it is witnessing range bound action. The index witnessed sharp swings near 15400-15600 on June 23. On the higher side, 15670-15700, which was earlier acting as a support zone, is now posing as a resistance zone as per the principle of role reversal.
The Nifty is facing selling pressure as it is approaching this area. Unless the level of 15700 gets taken out on a closing basis the index is expected to stay in a consolidation mode.
On the downside, 15400-15360 is the near term support zone below which the index can test the recent low near 15183.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:
Weak global markets and recession woes following Fed Chair’s testimony failed to discourage Indian bourses. The domestic market is showcasing potency to sustain the momentum in the short to medium-term.
A major part of the current uncertainties led by slowing economy & hawkish monetary policy have been factored in the market, however, FIIs are continuing their selling, limiting the trend.
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities
Nifty recovered from the early afternoon selloff on June 23 and closed higher despite fears of rising rates and recession across the globe. At close, Nifty was up 143.3 points or 0.93% at 15556.9.
Volumes on the NSE were in line with the recent average. Among sectors, Oil & Gas was the main loser while Auto, Realty, Capital Goods, Telecom, IT and Healthcare indices rose the most. Advance decline ratio jumped up to much above 1:1. Small and Midcap indices rose a little more than the Nifty.
Asian markets were mostly higher despite flat US markets overnight. European stocks retreated and bond yields tumbled as comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and growth data in Europe stoked fear about a global downturn. An indicator of euro-area economic activity fell to a 16-month low. US stocks are heading for their worst first-half losses since the 1970s.
Nifty seems to have made a higher bottom at 15385 and is now slated to make a higher high above 15,707. A downward breach of 15385 could lead to all bullish bets being taken off the table.
S Ranganathan, Head of Research at LKP securities:
Advancement of the southwest monsoon beyond the Eastern parts of the country coupled with a cool off in oil buoyed auto stocks today as they led the charge on the benchmark indices with good support from the IT stocks.
Engineering exports have looked up smartly in the first two months of the current fiscal bringing some cheer to the bulls in an environment which is devoid of positive newsflows.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities:
Nifty ended higher after a volatile trading session on the day of weekly expiry. On the daily chart, the Nifty registered a strong comeback after a day of decline in the previous session.
The daily RSI is in positive divergence. The trend is likely to remain positive in the near term.
Support on the lower end is placed at 15400; a close below 15400 may induce the resumption of a market sell-off. On the higher end, resistance is visible at 15600/15800.
Narendra Solanki, Head- Equity Research (Fundamental), Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers
Indian markets opened on positive note following Asian market peers which were trading mostly green led by China. During the afternoon session markets trimmed some of their gains as European markets struggled to shrug off recession fears but managed to trade in green.
Buying in frontline stocks such as Maruti Suzuki, Asian Paints and Bharti Airtel were aiding sentiment, while selling in Power Grid, Titan Co and NTPC kept the gains in the markets in check.
Traders were encouraged as Prime Minister Modi said the government expects the Indian economy to grow by 7.5% this year. Additional support came with RBI data showing that the country's foreign exchange reserves in nominal terms, including valuation effects, rose by $30.3 billion in 2021-22 fiscal against $99.2 billion expansion in FY2020-21.
Rupee Close:
Indian rupee ended marginally higher at 78.31 per dollar against Wednesday’s close of 78.38.
Market Close:
Benchmark indices ended on positive note in the highly volatile session on June 23 with Nifty above 15,500.
At close, the Sensex was up 443.19 points or 0.86% at 52,265.72, and the Nifty was up 143.40 points or 0.93% at 15,556.70. About 2037 shares have advanced, 1188 shares declined, and 123 shares are unchanged.
Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp, Eicher Motors, M&M and Bajaj Auto were among the top Nifty gainers. The losers were Reliance Industries, Coal India, NTPC, Power Grid Corporation and Grasim Industries.
Auto Index rose 4 percent, while capital goods, Information Technology, pharma and realty indices up 1 percent each.
The BSE midcap and smallcap indices added 1 percent each.
Goldman Sachs View On UltraTech Cement
Research house Goldman Sachs has maintained buy rating on UltraTech Cement with a target at Rs 6,600 per share.
The company can continue to deliver solid volume growth and expect volume growth CAGR of 9-10% over FY23-FY25, said broking house.
The current correction in stock provides a good entry point.
The company is likely to emerge stronger in an uncertain & highly competitive environment, reported CNBC-TV18.
UltraTech Cement was quoting at Rs 5,416.20, up Rs 9.90, or 0.18 percent on the BSE.
BSE Midcap index added 1 percent led by the Oil India, Ashok Leyland
, Nippon Life India Asset ManagementJefferies On Dalmia Bharat
Brokerage firm Jefferies has maintained buy rating on Dalmia Bharat but cut target price to Rs 1,600 per share.
The company expects cement demand CAGR of 9% over FY21-23, while unprecedented increase in input costs is a challenge for profitability.
The net debt turned negative for FY22, reported CNBC-TV18.
Dalmia Bharat was quoting at Rs 1,253.35, up Rs 6.15, or 0.49 percent.
Nifty Pharma index rose 1 percent supported by the Strides Pharma Science, Biocon, Lupin
Citi On Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC
Research firm Citi has initiated with a buy call on Aditya Birla AMC with a target at Rs 515 per share.
It’s amongst leading AMCs in fixed income with over 10.5% market share and have potential to gain market share in equity on an improving investment performance.
The Birla Group parentage gives AMC a strong brand & greater scope to cross-sell.
At 20x FY23e P/E, stock looks more attractive than HDFC AMC's 30x, reported CNBC-TV18.
Market at 3 PM
Benchmark indices were trading higher in the final hour of the trading with Nifty above 15500.
The Sensex was up 427.88 points or 0.83% at 52250.41, and the Nifty was up 143.00 points or 0.93% at 15556.30. About 1938 shares have advanced, 1155 shares declined, and 120 shares are unchanged.
BSE Smallcap index rose 1 percent led by the Responsive Industries, Chemplast Sanmar, Spandana Sphoorty Financial
Bridgewater doubles bet against European stocks to $10.5 billion
Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has built a $10.5 billion bet against European companies, almost doubling its wager in the past week to its most bearish stance against the region’s stocks in two years.
The world’s biggest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets against 28 companies that include individual wagers of more than $500 million against ASML Holding NV, TotalEnergies SE, Sanofi and SAP SE, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The total bet is up from $5.7 billion against 18 firms last week, the data shows.
European Markets trade lower
Pine Labs acquires fintech infra startup Setu for $70-75 million
Merchant payments and lending platform Pine Labs has acquired fintech infrastructure specialist Setu for $70-75 million to strengthen its diversified online payments and lending offerings ahead of its plans to list in the United States, the company said on June 23. Click To Read More
Vinati Organics to expand capacity with capex of Rs 580 crore
Given the strong demand outlook of ATBS, the Company will be expanding ATBS capacity from 40000 MT to 60000 MT. This would entail a capex of Rs 300 crore which will be funded by internal accruals and is expected to get commissioned by December 2023. The capital expenditure in Veeral Organics Private Limited (fully owned subsidiary of Vinati Organics Limited) is under progress. The total capex is approximately Rs 280 crore and
the products include 2000 MT of MEHQ & Guaiacol and 30000 MT of Iso Amylene. These products are used in polymerization inhibitors, flavours, fragrances, pharmaceuticals and pesticides. The commissioning is expected by September 2023, the company said in an exchange filing.
Route Mobile Board to consider buyback of shares on June 28:
TVS Group's Brakes India & Volvo Group join hands to build first-ever green castings for Volvo's engines
Market alert
: US Futures recover, Dow Futures up nearly 200 points from lows.
Market update at 2 PM: Sensex is up 504.13 points or 0.97% at 52326.66, and the Nifty gained 158 points or 1.03% at 15571.30.
Nifty Metal index shed 0.5 percent dragged by NALCO, Ratnamani Metals, Vedanta
BSE Oil & Gas index slipped 1 percent dragged by the Reliance Industries, Adani Total Gas, Gail India
Motilal Oswal On Gujarat Gas
Brokerage firm Motilal Oswal has kept buy rating on Gujarat Gas with a target at Rs 650 per share.
LNG would remain cheaper than LPG, except during summer season. And increased availability of domestic gas will help the company reduce its sourcing cost.
Motilal Oswal expect its volume to register a CAGR of 13% over FY22-24, reported CNBC-TV18.
Gujarat Gas touched a 52-week low of Rs 403.80 and was quoting at Rs 406.40, down Rs 1.05, or 0.26 percent.
BSE Realty index rose 1 percent led by the Sobha, Phoenix Mills, DLF
GPT Infraprojects bags order Rs 292 crore
GPT Infraprojects has bagged an order worth Rs 292 crore for execution of viaducts, major bridges, ROBs, supply of vehicle, site facilities & other allied works for Khurda Road - Bolangir New B G link project, of East Coast Railway. This contract is in joint venture.
Promoter offloads 1.5 lakh shares in Usha Martin
Usha Martin: Promoter Peterhouse Investments sold 1.5 lakh shares in the company via open market transactions on June 20-21. With this, its shareholding in the company stands reduced to 1.86 percent, down from 1.91 percent earlier.
Usha Martin was quoting at Rs 108.05, up Rs 0.55, or 0.51 percent on the BSE.
Market at 1 PM
Benchmark indices erased all the intraday gains and trading flat in the afternoon session.
The Sensex was down 3.08 points or 0.01% at 51819.45, and the Nifty was up 5.70 points or 0.04% at 15419. About 1701 shares have advanced, 1306 shares declined, and 129 shares are unchanged.
Buzzing
Imagicaaworld Entertainment has completed its debt resolution successfully and inducted new promoters on the board of directors.
The board has approved allotment of equity shares and 0.01% redeemable non-convertible preference shares on preferential-basis as part of the resolution plan agreed by the lenders under the RBI Prudential Framework.
Today’s Stock Market Action
Credit Suisse View On UltraTech Cement
Research firm Credit Suisse has kept outperform rating on UltraTech Cement with a target at RS 7,500 per share.
The company is pricing in Rs 1,325 crore of profitability with 108 mt of volumes.
The potential coal/petcoke price pullback & positive cyclical outlook can drive upside, reported CNBC-TV18.
UltraTech Cement was quoting at Rs 5,402, down Rs 4.30, or 0.08 percent on the BSE.
BSE Metal index added 1 percent led by the JSW Steel, APL Apollo Tubes, Hindalco Industries
Market update at 12 PM: Sensex is up 326.94 points or 0.63% at 52149.47, and the Nifty added 106.20 points or 0.69% at 15519.50.
Emkay Global Financial Services on RBI MPC minutes
The minutes of the June meeting reflected continued policy urgency and a need to catch up with heightened inflation uncertainties. The persistent inflation narrative saw coherence among members as most of them believed that irrespective of the source of inflation (supply or demand side), there was a need for policy tilt to tame current high-level inflation.
Even though the MPC rhetoric has firmly moved in a hawkish direction, the issue of real terminal rates seems to find some mild divergence among some members. Prof Varma suggested that the rate hike should continue until at least real rates become modestly positive. Dr. Patra argued that the repo rate needs to be increased to at least as high as the one-year-ahead inflation forecast suggests (near zero), knowing that monetary policy works with lags. Prof. Goyal said that at the current stage of recovery, the one-year-ahead real rate must fall below -1%.
The triple whammy of commodity price shocks, supply-chain shocks and somewhat resilient growth has shifted the reaction function in favor of inflation containment. We are currently tracking next month's CPI inflation at 6.9% but reckon elevated policy pressures as inflation remains above 7% in H1FY23. FY23 could see rates go up by another 75bps, with another 25bps+ hike in August.
The auto index jumped over 3 percent led by Eicher Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp and Tata Motors
L&T bags order worth Rs 2,500-5,000 crore for its hydrocarbon business
Uber India is said to have explored sale of ride-hailing arm
Uber is said to have explored a sale of its ride-hailing arm in India, according to a Bloomberg report. Uber and Ola had been struggling to show profit in India’s price-sensitive market, with constant pressure on margins. Uber Inc has already sold its India food-delivery business to Zomato. Uber says Bloomberg’s reporting is categorically false, ‘We Have Never Explored Exiting India’.
Market update at 11 AM: Sensex is up 641.80 points or 1.24% at 52464.33, and the Nifty jumped 198.70 points or 1.29% at 15612.
Vodafone Idea delays payment of AGR dues
Vodafone Idea (Vi) has said it is delaying by four years the payment of adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues worth Rs 8,837 crore as the department of telecom (DoT) has offered the telco the option to do so.
After the delay, Vodafone Idea will pay the amount in six equal instalments starting 31 March 2026.
According to the company, an old DoT communication from 14 October 2021 had granted a four-year deferment on the dues as determined by the Supreme Court (SC). This covered all the AGR dues up to 2016-17 (dues which were included in the SC order).
Vodafone Idea Limited was quoting at Rs 8.65, up Rs 0.12, or 1.41 percent on the BSE.
Rising rates pressuring countries' credit ratings, S&P Global warns
A growing group of countries are likely to see their credit ratings come under pressure as rising global interest rates hit already-stretched finances, one of the world's biggest rating agencies, S&P Global, has warned.
A report by the firm on Wednesday said that heavily indebted Italy would face its highest debt bill as a percentage of its GDP since 2012 without European Central Bank help, while Ukraine, Brazil, Egypt, Ghana and Hungary were the most vulnerable emerging market countries.
IRB Infrastructure receives arbitral award of Rs 308 crore
IRB Infrastructure Developers received 75 percent of the arbitration award of Rs 419 crore from IRB Pathankot Amritsar Toll Road Ltd, an SPV of IRB InvIT Fund.
The Court has upheld Arbitral Tribunal's Order and directed NHAI to release 75 percent of the arbitration award amount, i.e. Rs 308 crore, to the company. IRB Infra was the EPC contractor for Pathankot Amritsar BOT project, as per the company's release.
Hydrocarbon division of L&T Energy has secured three offshore packages
The Hydrocarbon division of L&T Energy has secured three offshore packages from a prestigious overseas client.
The scope of work comprises Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Installation for various new offshore jacket structures. L&T Energy Hydrocarbon (LTEH) has executed orders for this client in the past and repeat business is a testimony to L&T’s “Execution Par Excellence” philosophy, company said in its release.
Rahul Bajoria, MD & Chief India Economist, Barclays:
Inflation concerns remain central to policy deliberations. We see a clear focus on policymakers targeting a modestly positive real rate policy, which could mean more rate hikes are on the anvil.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today released the minutes of its June policy review at which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously increased the repo rate by 50bp and made a significant increase to its inflation forecast.
The minutes show that MPC members remain concerned about elevated inflation levels, and their primary focus is on unraveling the pandemic-era extraordinary policy support measures. Overall, we believe the MPC is likely targeting a modestly positive real rates policy, which is consistent with its recent research and remains cognizant of the risks to the evolving growth outlook.
