Vishal Wagh, Research Head, Bonanza Portfolio:
Nifty had a volatile session amid weak global cues and weekly expiry. It closes above 18,250 as bulls maintain the momentum on Dalal Street.
The index has once again given a flat to a marginal positive start in today's session. Volatility was visible owing to weekly expiry with wild swings on both sides.
Going ahead 17,940 -18,000 will be good short-term support for upcoming trading sessions and on the upside 18,340 will act as new immediate resistance.
A hammer candlestick pattern is visible on daily charts indicating that the steam is cooling off and we can see sideways or profit booking sessions in the coming days. The structure of the index is in favor of bulls. Market breadth has remained at 2:1 with 36 stocks on the advancing side & 14 stocks on the declining side.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities:
Markets extended gains for the fifth straight session, but it looks like bulls are showing signs of fatigue as trading largely remained rangebound.
The Nifty has formed a Doji candlestick formation indicating indecisiveness between bulls and bears. However, the medium-term texture is still positive.
Direction wise, below 18200 we can expect profit booking and post breakdown the chances of hitting 18140-18100 levels are bright. On the other hand, as long as the index is trading above 18200, the uptrend will continue till 18300-18350.
Prashant Tapse, Vice President (Research) at Mehta Equities:
Nifty’s ascent towards 18,605 is on the radar. Interestingly, the gains came despite US CPI surging to the highest level since June 1982 and core CPI registering the biggest advance since 1991. The stronger readings reinforce the need for quicker interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Also, in a double whammy for the economy, India’s retail inflation rate shot up to a five month high in December and growth in factory output decelerated to a nine-month low in November.
There is likely to be lots of opportunities on the buy side as long as Nifty stays above 17889 mark. The immediate goalpost on Nifty is seen at its all-time-high at 18605 mark.
S Ranganathan, Head of Research at LKP securities:
Metals stole the show in today's trade with the metal index rising over 3.5% well supported by the pharma & PSE index.
Sugar stocks were in demand on the back of Ethanol push and robust outlook in CY2022. Profit booking was seen in select cement & IT stocks in today's trade.
Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:
The Nifty opened gap up on January 13 post which it traded in a sideways manner & ultimately formed a Dragonfly Doji on the daily chart. This gives a warning that the rally can run out of the steam in the short term. The hourly momentum indicator continues to show negative divergence near the overbought zone that also shows that the index is losing momentum on the upside.
The hourly chart shows that the index is trading near lower end of a rising channel, which is near 18160. Below that, a recent gap area of 18081 – 18128 will be the key support to watch out for.
The short term trajectory can remain positive as long as the index trades above these supports & the Nifty can test its weekly upper Bollinger Band near 18400. On the other hand, breach of these supports will be an indication of exhaustion in the trend from short term perspective.
Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Research- Derivatives at Kotak Securities
Nifty remains in an uptrend and is expected to test 19000-19500 levels going ahead. Any correction in the short term can be used to initiate fresh long positions.
We remain positive on Metals and FMCG at current levels; Realty, IT, and Auto trade with positive bias but can be bought only on deeper corrections.
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments:
The Nifty has given a positive close above 18250. Ideally, the next target is 18500 with strong support at 17800. Any dip can be utilized to accumulate long positions on the index.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:
The domestic market traded between gains and losses weighing the initial positive earnings results and weak global cues. Globally, western markets traded lower due to 4-decade high inflation as the US consumer price index rose by 7% YoY in December.
Owing to an unfavourable base effect, India’s retail inflation also jumped to 5.59% in December higher than RBI’s forecast of 5.1% for Q3FY22. India’s Industrial Production registered a subdued growth of 1.4% as supply shortage constrained factory production.
Market Close:
Benchmark indices ended with marginal gains in the volatile session on January 13 with buying seen in the metal and pharma names.
At close, the Sensex was up 85.26 points or 0.14% at 61,235.30, and the Nifty was up 45.50 points or 0.25% at 18,257.80. About 1630 shares have advanced, 1609 shares declined, and 62 shares are unchanged.
Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Sun Pharma, Coal India and UPL were the top Nifty gainers. Losers were Wipro, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and IndusInd Bank.
On the sectoral front, metal, pharma, power, oil & gas and capital goods indices rose 1-3 percent, while bank and realty indices fell over 0.5 percent each. BSE midcap and smallcap indices ended in the green.
Credit Suisse view on Infosys
The research house has kept an outperform call on the stock and raised the target price to Rs 2,350 as it was a solid quarter with strong beat on revenue and net profit.
It has increased FY22/23/24 EPS estimates by 2 percent/4 percent/4.5 percent respectively.
Infosys was quoting at Rs 1,893, up Rs 15.40, or 0.82 percent on the BSE.
Elara Capital view on Maruti Suzuki
While RM cost pressures remain a headwind in H2FY22, price hikes would partially soften the impact on gross profit per vehicle, with
recovery expected from Q4FY22.
We are monitoring the launches, which would be a key trigger. We expect a volume CAGR of 17% over FY21-24E with an EBITDA margin of 9.6% in FY23E and 11.5% in FY24E.
We reiterate accumulate with a higher target price of Rs 9,288 from Rs 8,013 based on 26x (unchanged) FY24E P/E as we roll forward.
Narendra Solanki, Head- Equity Research (Fundamental), Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers:
Indian markets opened flat to marginally positive despite negative Asian market peers after higher inflation reading from US and China's bank lending declined more than expected in December.
During the afternoon session markets managed to trade in green albiet with a narrow range. Traders were positive, as Commerce and Industry Minister said start-ups of the country will help India transition from an assembly economy to a knowledge-based economy.
Adding more relief, a private report stated that digital platforms help unlock up to 30 percent more value for micro entrepreneurs who are associated with them by helping overcome challenges like market access and credit.
Supreme Engineering board approves sub-division of shares
Supreme Engineering board has approved the sub-division/ split of equity shares of the company from face value of Rs 10 each into Re 1 each as decided by the board, subject to approval of members through postal ballot, company said in its release.
Supreme Engineering was quoting at Rs 24.70, up Rs 0.40, or 1.65 percent on the NSE.
Citi view on Wipro
Foreign research house Citi has kept buy call on the stock and cut the target price to Rs 820 from Rs 830.
It lower FY22-24 earnings by 1% each to factor in the weak Q3, while ACV increase YoY & headcount growth suggests good outlook.
The revenue miss on elevated sector expectations will likely lead to a pullback, it added.
Wipro was quoting at Rs 650.85, down Rs 40.50, or 5.86 percent on the BSE.
Yash Gupta, Equity Research Analyst, Angel One:
India is currently in the 3rd wave of covid 19, in the last 3 weeks we have seen an increase in cases from 10000 to 2.47 lakhs.
Several states have already announced several restrictions but the positivity rate keeps on increasing. States like Maharashtra and Delhi reported 46723 and 27561 cases respectively.
As the covid testing will increase this will help the diagnostics sector, we continue with our buy call on Dr. Lal Pathlabs with target price of Rs 4050.
Capri Global Capital sells its investment in Capri Global Resources
Capri Global Capital has sold its investment in Capri Global Resources Private Limited, its wholly owned subsidiary (carrying on the business of consultancy for financial services) to Capri Global Holdings Private Limited.
Capri Global Capital was quoting at Rs 512, down Rs 4.80, or 0.93 percent on the BSE.
Nifty Bank index shed 1 percent dragged by the HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusIn Bank
Gaurav Garg, Head of Research, Capitalvia Global Research
In the late morning session, despite flat indications from other Asian markets, Indian equity indices posted flat gains, with both the Sensex and the Nifty trading in the green.
Infosys and TCS, as well as Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, L&T, and HDFC, were all supporting the indices' modest increases. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' stock hit a five-year high of Rs 871 on the BSE, up 4% on expectations of strong profits growth.
Banks, automobiles, information technology, and real estate were all in the red. The NSE's metals and pharmaceuticals indices were remained the top gainers, up about 3% and 2%, respectively.
Market at 3 PM
Benchmark indices continued to trade flat in the volatile session on January 13 with buying is seen in the capital goods, metal, power stocks.
The Sensex was up 7.67 points or 0.01% at 61157.71, and the Nifty was up 25 points or 0.14% at 18237.30. About 1607 shares have advanced, 1600 shares declined, and 67 shares are unchanged.
TVS Motor signs MoU with Swiggy
TVS Motor Company announced a strategic partnership with Swiggy. This partnership highlights TVS Motor Company’s commitment to strengthen electrification across diverse mobility segments and aligns with Swiggy’s many efforts to enable the adoption of EVs in its delivery fleet.
As part of the MoU, TVS Motor and Swiggy will test the implementation of TVS Motor’s EV for food delivery and other on-demand services of Swiggy.
TVS Motor Company was quoting at Rs 661, up Rs 6.35, or 0.97 percent.
Citi view on TCS
Research firm Citi has kept sell call on the stock with a target at Rs 3,580 as Q3 earnings were largely in-line.
The deal TCV of USD 7.6 billion is largely in-line with prior 4-quarter average.
For FY22-24 the EPS estimates changed by 0-1%. It find consensus margin assumption of 26% for FY23 high, while buyback may support in near-term.
Tata Consultancy Services was quoting at Rs 3,899.05, up Rs 41.80, or 1.08 percent.
European Markets Updates
Fitch rates IRFC's proposed USD Bond 'BBB-'
Fitch Ratings has assigned Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited's (IRFC, BBB-/Negative) proposed US dollar 144A senior unsecured bond a rating of 'BBB-'. The proposed bond will be issued from IRFC's existing global medium-term note programme. Proceeds will be used to fund the acquisition of rail assets, which IRFC will lease to Indian Railways, and to meet the debt-financing requirements of entities operating in the domestic railway sector.
The programme size was raised to USD 7.0 billion in November 2021, from USD 4.0 billion. The increase did not affect the programme's 'BBB-' rating, which was last affirmed on May 26, 2021. Both the programme and the proposed bond ratings are aligned with IRFC's Issuer Default Rating (IDR), as the proposed bond will constitute IRFC's direct, unconditional, unsubordinated and unsecured obligation and will rank pari passu with all of its other present and future outstanding unsecured and unsubordinated obligations.
Fitch has assessed IRFC under its Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria, factoring in the company's strength of linkage with the government, and the government's incentive to provide support, with a high overall support score of 50. This results in the equalisation of IRFC's IDR with that of the Indian sovereign (BBB-/Negative), which is irrespective of the company's Standalone Credit Profile.
CESC Q3
Consolidated net profit was up 0.3 percent at Rs 329 crore against Rs 328 crore (YoY). Consolidated revenue was up 1.5 percent at Rs 2,826 crore against Rs 2,784 crore (YoY). Consolidated EBITDA was down 25.9 percent at Rs 545 crore against Rs 735 crore (YoY). Consolidated EBITDA margin at 19.3 percent against 26.4 percent (YoY). Regulatory income at Rs 282 crore against Rs 91 crore (YoY).
Market update at 2 PM: Sensex is up 32.19 points or 0.05% at 61182.23, and the Nifty added 23 points or 0.13% at 18235.30.
Vishal Fabrics will consider bonus issue on January 27
The meeting of board of directors of Vishal Fabrics will be held on January 27, 2022 to consider, approve and take on record the Un-Audited Financial Results along with Limited Review Report of the Company for the quarter ended December 31, 2021.
The board will also consider the bonus issue of shares, company said in its release.
Vishal Fabrics was quoting at Rs 126.75, up Rs 18.15, or 16.71 percent on the BSE.
Citi view on TCS
Research firm Citi has kept sell call on the stock with a target at Rs 3,580 as Q3 earnings were largely in-line.
The deal TCV of USD 7.6 billion is largely in-line with prior 4-quarter average.
For FY22-24 the EPS estimates changed by 0-1%. It find consensus margin assumption of 26% for FY23 high, while buyback may support in near-term.
Tata Consultancy Services was quoting at Rs 3,899.05, up Rs 41.80, or 1.08 percent.
Motilal Oswal view on Tata Motors
Tata Motors’ all three businesses are in recovery mode. While the India CV business would see cyclical recovery, the domestic PV business is on a structural recovery mode.
JLR is also witnessing a cyclical recovery underpinned by favorable product mix; however, supply-side headwinds will defer the recovery process.
While there would be no near- term catalysts from the JLR business, the India business (~50% of SOTP) would see sustained revival.
Maintain buy with a Mar’24 SOTP-based target price of Rs 610, implying 20% upside to the CMP.
Tata Motors was quoting at Rs 503.70, down Rs 3.40, or 0.67 percent on the BSE.
Ramkrishna Forgings bags order worth Rs 575 million
Ramkrishna Forgings won an export order to supply spindle worth Rs 575 million over a period of 3 years from one of the jargest TIER-1 manufacturers in North America in CV segment.
Ramkrishna Forgings was quoting at Rs 1,007.50, up Rs 26.15, or 2.66 percent on the BSE.
Jyoti Roy - DVP- Equity Strategist, Angel One
The Finance Minister will be presenting the Union Budget 2022-23 on the 1st of Feb’22 which will be keenly watched by the markets. We expect that the Union Budget will focus on targeted spending while maintaining fiscal discipline.
We expect the Government fiscal deficit for FY23 will be well below the budget estimate of 6.8% for FY2022 due to better than expected tax collections. We expect that the Government will continue its focus on providing support to the rural economy and manufacturing sector through increased spending and PLI schemes.
We also expect the Government will increase allocation to the infrastructure and housing sector given their high multiplier effect on the economy. We do not expect any major announcement in the Union Budget and believe that the Government will continue with its reform process even outside of the Budget.
Fabino Life Sciences becomes 359th Company to get listed on BSE SME platform
Fabino Life Sciences Limited became the 359th company to get listed on the BSE SME Platform on January 13, 2022. Fabino Life Sciences Limited came out with an initial public offering of 9,00,000 equity shares of Rs 10 each for cash at a price of Rs 36 per equity share, aggregating to Rs 3.24 crore. The company has successfully completed its public issue on January 5, 2022.
Market
at 1 PMIndian benchmark indices were tracing flat in the volatile session with buying seen in the metal, pharma and capital goods stocks.
The Sensex was down 38.17 points or 0.06% at 61111.87, and the Nifty was up 1.90 points or 0.01% at 18214.20. About 1583 shares have advanced, 1576 shares declined, and 79 shares are unchanged.
BSE Realty index fell 1 percent dragged by the Oberoi Realty, Indiabulls Real Estate, Godrej Properties
Sampath Reddy, Chief Investment Officer, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance
We are expecting that the Union Budget to be growth oriented and emphasis likely to be on sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, and infrastructure which would help with job creation. Given the Governments’ commitment towards climate, we expect electric vehicles (EV) segment may also see an additional boost with specific incentives for the charging infrastructure.
As the direct and indirect tax collections are picking up, we are excepting that the government to achieve its budgeted fiscal deficit target for FY22, in spite of miss on budgeted divestment revenue target (as per the current run-rate).
The government has already announced National Monetization pipeline, PLI schemes, and increased outlay for capex, and we expect that the thrust to continue going forward as well.
Buzzing:
Tata Motors share price fell 2 percent intraday to Rs 495 on the BSE on January 13 after its wholly-owned subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) reported weak sales numbers for the quarter ended December 2021.
The retail sales for the quarter ending December 31, 2021 were 80,126 vehicles, down 13.6% (12.6k units) from the preceding quarter ending September 31, 2021 and 37.6% (48.3k units) from the quarter a year ago ending December 31, 2020, company said in its press release.
Retails were lower across all regions compared to the preceding quarter, including China (-6.9%), Europe (-6.8%), North America (-11.8%), UK (-24.3%), and Overseas (-25.4%), it added.
M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork Ratings:
As expected by Brickwork Ratings, the CPI inflation rate crossed 5.5% though only marginally to 5.59% in December 2021. It was 4.59% in December last year.
Both core inflation and fuel inflation softened marginally, however, they are still at elevated levels. Fuel inflation eased to 10.95% from 13.35% in November due to softening international crude oil prices in addition to the cut in excise duties. Sharp increase in food inflation from 1.87% to 4.05% is a matter for concern. Food inflation is expected to increase further due to supply bottlenecks and adverse weather conditions. Although there has been a 68 basis points increase in the inflation rate in December over the previous month, the average inflation for Q3 remained below the RBI’s estimates of 5.3%. With inflation remaining within the comfort zone of RBI, there is no immediate concern for the MPC to continue with the accommodative stance though, it may continue with draining excess liquidity.
However, the most concerning is the sharp deceleration in the growth of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) at 1.4% in November 2021. Significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector growth (0.9%) in particular, is a matter for concern as this will also have an impact on employment. The manufacturing sector output was constrained by severe power outages due to a supply shortage in coal in the last few months in addition to the supply disruptions in semiconductors.
With the continued supply constraints and semiconductor shortage, the growth outlook for IIP does not look bright for December month as well.
Market at 12 PM
Benchmark indices were trading marginally higher in the volatile session with buying seen in the metal and pharma names.
At 12:00 IST, the Sensex was up 72.06 points or 0.12% at 61222.10, and the Nifty was up 32.60 points or 0.18% at 18244.90. About 1602 shares have advanced, 1529 shares declined, and 82 shares are unchanged.
D.R.E Reddy, CEO and Managing Partner at CRCL LLP:
The CPI has now maintained within the tolerance level for the sixth month in a row with 5.59% this December. The inflation has peaked as in the Western countries, however we expect some ease from the RBI's upcoming MPC.
Inflationary pressures on food are projected to remain low for the foreseeable future. Household income has also increased, indicating a boost in discretionary income in the hands of the average person. Overall, these figures show that the economy is rapidly rebounding from the pandemic's devastation.
Gaurav Garg, Head of Research, Capitalvia Global Research:
On Thursday, Indian markets surged for the fifth consecutive day, boosted by positive global cues. Traders will be encouraged by the World Bank's prediction that the Narendra Modi government's Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme will help India's economy develop at an annual rate of 8.7% in fiscal year 2022-23, outpacing emerging market counterparts such as China.
Our research suggests that the levels of 18400 may act as important resistance levels in the market. If the market sustained above the levels of 18100, we can expect the market to trade in the range of 18100-18400.
BSE Heathcare inex rose 1 percent supported by the Nureca, Neuland Laboratories, Solara Active Pharma Sciences
Market update at 11 AM
: Sensex is down 39.86 points or 0.07% at 61110.18, and the Nifty up 0.90 points at 18213.20.
Equitas Small Finance Bank Q3 update
: Gross advances were up 13 percent YoY, up 3 percent QoQ. Disbursements were up 10 percent YoY and was down 14 percent QoQ. Deposits grew 13 percent YoY and went down 1 percent QoQ.
Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist & National Director – Research, Knight Frank India:
The deceleration in IIP growth number for November 2021 is definitely a cause of concern. On a sequential basis, the Index of Industrial production has fallen by around 4% when compared to the previous month. There has been specifically very sharp fall on a sequential basis (MoM) in the consumer durables segment. As indicated by some of the other economic indicators also, the growth momentum in the month of November seems to be flattening.
Going forward, in the next few months we could see further weakening of the growth momentum as the economy grapples with Omicron concerns and supply disruptions. The latest economic indicators are pointing towards urgent need of demand stimulation measures to sustain the economic recovery. In the upcoming Union Budget, the Government should look at measures to boost private consumption, which can be the bellwether of India’s economic recovery.
Upasna Bhardwaj, Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank:
The December headline inflation came in softer than expectations largely led by food inflation. The overall falling sequential momentum on food prices is further expected to continue in January as well but the sticky core inflation and adverse base effect poses risk of the next reading being higher than 6 percent.
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments
The index seems to be in the midst of a jubilant wave and route to 18500 as the next level of target and resistance. With a good support at 17800, traders can use intraday dips or corrections to accumulate long positions on the Nifty.
Rupee Opens
Indian rupee opened marginally higher at 73.88 per dollar on Thursday against previous close of 73.91.
The US dollar declined 0.75% yesterday amid a surge in US stocks and less-than-expected hawkish statement from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Additionally, the dollar fell as US CPI data rose solidly but in line with expectations. US inflation surged 7.0% in December 2021, biggest year on year increase since June 1982, said ICICI Direct.
Rupee future maturing on January 27 appreciated by 0.02% on weakness in dollar and rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets. However, further gains were prevented as investors remained vigilant ahead of CPI data from the US and India, it added.
Market at 10 AM
Benchmark indices were trading flat amid volatility with buying seen in the metal, power and pharma names.
The Sensex was up 35.52 points or 0.06% at 61185.56, and the Nifty was up 12 points or 0.07% at 18224.30. About 1475 shares have advanced, 1494 shares declined, and 93 shares are unchanged.
