Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities:
The rising US inflation has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve could soon initiate its rate hike decision, which created a lot of uncertainty among the global investors, including India. After 3 days of rise, investors liquidated their holdings as they fear the market could correct going ahead.
The Nifty took support near 17050 but failed to sustain above the 20-day SMA which is broadly negative. Technically, the index is witnessing non directional activity near the 50-day SMA. However, on daily and weekly charts, it is holding higher bottom formation but at the same is consistently facing resistance at 20 day SMA. Hence, the market is likely to maintain non directional activity in the near future.
The immediate support would be 17300-17250 while 17600 and 17700 would act as a crucial hurdle for the bulls. Meanwhile, after a short term correction the Bank Nifty held the level of 20-day SMA. The structure suggests 38200 or 20-day SMA and 38000 would be the sacrosanct support for the index, and above the same uptrend momentum is likely to continue till 39500-40000.
Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities:
Benchmark Indices snapped three days winning momentum and ended on a negative note. Nifty made low of 17303.0 and closed at 17374.75 levels (-1.31%) and Sensex made low of 57914.10 and closed at 58,152.92 (-1.31%) levels.
All major sectoral indices ended in red with IT & reality down by 2%.
On the technical front 17,250 and 17,450 are immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 respectively. For Bank Nifty 38,200 and 38,800 are immediate support and resistance respectively
Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking:
The market had a weak start and selling accentuated throughout the session as after making an intraday high at 17454.75 level index closed the session at 17374.75 level with a loss of 231.10 points. While Bank Nifty closed the session at 38517.25 level with a loss of 493.70 points.
On the technical front, the index has formed a Doji kind of Candlestick on a weekly chart which points out confusion between buyers & sellers. Furthermore, the index is trading below the middle band of Bollinger which suggests downside movement in the counter.
On an Hourly Chart, the index has been trading below 21*50-HMA with the negative crossover which suggests weakness for next session.
Moreover, the daily momentum indicator Stochastic as well MACD is also trading with negative crossover which adds weakness in prices.
At present, the index has support at 17130 levels while resistance comes at 17600 levels. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 38000 levels while resistance at 39000 levels.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities:
Nifty found resistance around 17635 and slipped lower towards the gap on the daily timeframe. On the daily timeframe, a red-bodied candle is visible.
Once again, the index has slipped below the 50 EMA. The trend looks sideways to negative for the near term. On the lower end, support is visible at 17250-17265. On the other hand, Nifty needs to move beyond 17640 to change the current bearish trend.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:
Aggressive FII selling resulting from negative global cues wreaked havoc in the domestic market today. Globally markets traded in red amid mounting concerns of surging US inflation which fuelled fears of a hawkish rate hike by the central bank.
US inflation surged 7.5% on an annual basis with the consumer price index for all items rising 0.6% in January. On the domestic front, all sectors were deep in red with IT, realty and PSU banks being the most affected.
Market Close
Benchmark indices snapped three-day gaining momentum and ended lower on February 11 with Nifty below 17,400.
At close, the Sensex was down 773.11 points or 1.31% at 58,152.92, and the Nifty was down 231 points or 1.31% at 17,374.80. About 896 shares have advanced, 2318 shares declined, and 105 shares are unchanged.
Grasim Industries, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Technologies and UPL were the top Nifty losers, while gainers were IOC, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Tata Steel and ITC.
All the sectoral indices ended in the red with IT and realty indices down 2 percent each. BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices fell nearly 2 percent each.
Emkay on DCB Bank
Factoring in higher LLP, we cut our earnings forecasts for FY22-23 by 4-9% and expect the RoA/RoE trajectory to remain sub-par at 0.6-0.9%/7-11% over FY22-24. Given sub-par asset quality, liability profile and return ratios (RoA<1%), we retain Sell with a revised
target price of Rs 70 (vs. Rs 75), valuing the bank at 0.6x Dec’23E ABV.
The shorter MD tenure (till Apr’22) also adds to concerns amid the recent intervention in RBL by the RBI. Instead, we prefer Federal, KVB, CUBK and Equitas in the small/mid-cap private banking space.
Key risks: better-than-expected delivery on growth/liability profile and faster improvement in asset quality.
Geojit on Indraprastha Gas:
We expect significant improvement in performance in future driven by strong volume growth, extensive geographical coverage and experience from the company’s highly qualified senior management personnel.
Further, the Government has proposed to add 100 cities to the City Gas Distribution network as per the Union Budget 2022.
With promising outlook, we reiterate our buy rating on the stock with a rolled forward target price of Rs 474 based on SOTP methodology.
Power Finance Corporation Q3:
Power Finance Corporation has posted 2 percent jump in its standalone net profit at Rs 2,380 crore versus Rs 2,333 crore and revenue was down 4.5% at Rs 9,626 crore versus Rs 1,884 crore, YoY.
Gross NPA was at 6.06% versus 5.67% and net NPA at 2% versus 1.92%, QoQ.
Power Finance Corporation was quoting at Rs 120.85, down Rs 2.15, or 1.75 percent.
Market at 3 PM
Benchmark indices were trading lower with Nifty below 17400 dragged by selling across the sectors.
The Sensex was down 743.52 points or 1.26% at 58182.51, and the Nifty was down 220.50 points or 1.25% at 17385.30. About 853 shares have advanced, 2238 shares declined, and 84 shares are unchanged.
BSE Midcap Index slipped 1 percent dragged by the Info Edge, Indian Hotels, SRF:
Results on February 12
Ashoka Buildcon, Atul Auto, Capri Global Capital, Dilip Buildcon, DB Realty, Galaxy Surfactants, Hinduja Global Solutions, Hindustan Copper, ISGEC Heavy Engineering, Jain Irrigation Systems, Jaiprakash Associates, KRBL, Max Healthcare Institute, Mcnally Bharat Engineering, Muthoot Finance, Nureca, PNC Infratech, Ramco Systems, Sadbhav Infrastructure Project, Shalimar Paints, Thyrocare Technologies, and Viceroy Hotels will release quarterly earnings on February 12.
Passenger vehicle wholesales dip 8% in January
Passenger vehicle dispatches from factories to dealers in India fell 8 percent in January, mainly due to semiconductor shortage, auto industry body SIAM said on Friday. The total passenger vehicle wholesales dropped to 254,287 units in January 2022 as compared to 276,554 units in the same month of last year.
Last month, passenger car dispatches stood at 126,693 units as compared to 153,244 units in the year-ago period. Similarly, van dispatches declined to 10,632 units in the period under review from 11,816 units in January 2021. Utility vehicle sales, however, increased to 116,962 units last month as compared to 111,494 units in January 2021.
Total two wheeler dispatches declined 21 percent to 1,128,293 units from 1,429,928 units in the year-ago period. Similarly, three wheeler wholesales dropped to 24,091 units last month as against 26,794 units in January 2021.
Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities
:
Crude oil prices traded higher with NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices were trading 0.31% up near $90.16 per barrel for the day. Crude Oil prices traded mixed, prices eased on Friday as hot US inflation fanned worries about aggressive interest rate hikes and investors await the outcome of US-Iran talks that could lead to increased global crude supply. The OPEC said that world oil demand might rise even more steeply this year. The group forecast a gain of 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to up for the day.
Crude oil prices are expected to trade up with resistance at $92 and support at $87 per barrel. MCX Crude oil February has support at Rs 6720 and resistance at Rs 6850.
Breaking News:
Tata Sons reappoints N Chandrasekaran as Chairman for 5 years. "Delighted at the opportunity to lead The Tata Group for another 5 years.Rata Tata recommended renewal of N Chandrasekaran's term for another 5 years.
Salasar Tech Q3
Net profit went down 40% at Rs 6.9 crore against Rs 11.5 crore (YoY). Revenue slipped 0.4% at Rs 173.6 crore against Rs 174.3 crore (YoY). EBITDA went down 13.1% at Rs 16.6 crore against Rs 19.1 crore (YoY). EBITDA margin at 9.5% against 10.9% (YoY). The stock was trading atRs 218.85, down Rs 7.25, or 3.21 percent. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 230.00 and an intraday low of Rs 216.40.
Market Update at 2 PM: Sensex is down 784.45 points or 1.33% at 58141.58, and the Nifty shed 236.10 points or 1.34% at 17369.70.
Linde India signs 15-year long-term agreement with ESL Steel
Linde India signed a 15-year long-term agreement structured on Lease and O&M basis with ESL Steel Ltd. (ESL), a Vedanta Group Company for supply of 800 tonnes per day of Oxygen and 900 tonnes per day of Nitrogen to them at their steelworks at Bokaro.
For this purpose, Linde India will be setting up an onsite Air Separation Unit (ASU) at ESL’s Bokaro steelworks, which will serve
ESL’s demand for gases for its brownfield expansion and will also cater to Linde India’s requirement of gases for merchant markets. The capital expenditure for setting up of this ASU will be financed by the Company’s own sources/internal accruals, it added.
Linde India was quoting at Rs 2,639.45, down Rs 15.05, or 0.57 percent.
Vedant Fashions sets issue price at Rs 866 per share
Vedant Fashions, the largest company in India in men's Indian wedding and celebration wear segment, has fixed issue price at Rs 866 per share, the upper end of price band, for its initial public offering. The issue price was Rs 824-866 per share.
The initial public offering (IPO) of more than Rs 3.63 crore equity shares, at issue price of Rs 866 per share, fetched the company Rs 3,149.19 crore. The public issue consisted of only one offer for sale by investors (Rhine Holdings, and Kedaara Capital Alternative Investment Fund-Kedaara Capital AIF 1), and promoter Ravi Modi Family Trust.
Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities
US inflation has hit a multi decade high of 7.5%, which has implications on the pace of interest rate increase by the US Fed. As we suggested earlier, this will lead to higher volatility in all financial markets, including equity, debt, and currency.
We expect emerging market currencies to be under pressure, including INR. We also expect Indian interest rates to increase despite dovish RBI yesterday. This will have implications for equity investors.
We expect this increased volatility to hit small / midcaps more than large caps. We believe that the expected increase in volatility should be used by investors to build positions in quality large-cap and midcap stocks. Some of the sectors where we remain positive are Banking, including quality PSU Banks, commodities, real estate, capital goods, and healthcare.
Nomura on Cummins
Research firm Nomura has kept reduce rating on Cummins India with a target at Rs 666 per share.
There results were ahead on strong domestic sales, while margin largely in-line due to lower other expenses than estimated. However, exports are flattish sequentially & below estimates.
The management refrains from sales guidance for FY22.
Cummins India was quoting at Rs 946.70, up Rs 16.25, or 1.75 percent.
Amit Pabari, MD at CR Forex Advisors:
After yesterday’s strongest US CPI since Feb 1982 (half a decade high), yields were seen rising sharply higher. US 10 year yield jumped above 2.04% - highest since July 2019 and 2 years jumped to highest since Dec 2019.
The yield curve flattened further to just 45 bps. The CME Fed watch tool suggests a 90% probability of 3 rate hike in March. Probably, in a closed-door meeting, Fed could come up with a surprise one-rate hike on Monday, and hence traders could position themselves well today.
The impact on the market would be wild. Volatility throughout the day could remain high. Global equities could fall further by 2-3% by evening. US 10-year yield could further jump towards 2.15% to 2.20% and DM & EM forex could also feel the hit. Rupee, could further depreciate towards 75.60-75.80 by Monday midnight. The given target will remain subject to the RBI intervention in the forex market.
Market at 1 PM
Benchmark indices were trading lower but off day's low with Nifty around 17400.
The Sensex was down 687.87 points or 1.17% at 58238.16, and the Nifty was down 208.60 points or 1.18% at 17397.20. About 882 shares have advanced, 2169 shares declined, and 90 shares are unchanged.
Tanvee Gupta Jain, Economist, UBS Securities
The MPC unanimously kept the repo rate unchanged at 4%. The reverse repo rate was also unchanged (3.35%), a surprise to market expectations of a hike but in line with our expectations. The decision to keep policy stance as "accommodative", however, was split with a 5-1 vote.
We believe RBI's stimulatory policy stance amidst already depressed real yields, expansionary fiscal policy and weak BoP dynamics doesn't bode well for INR. We retain our recommendation to be long EURINR. We also retain our cautious stance on the Nifty.
Motherson Sumi Q3 Results
Motherson Sumi Systems on February 11 reported a 69.3 percent year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 245.1 crore, which was above analysts' expectations of Rs 191 crore.
The auto ancillary company reported a 5.7 percent on-year decline in consolidated total revenue from operations to Rs 16,117.5 crore, which was above Street's estimate of Rs 14,794 crore.
Motherson Sumi Systems was quoting at Rs 178.45, down Rs 1.95, or 1.08 percent on the BSE.
Nifty Auto index slipped 1 percent dragged by the Balkrishna Industries, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland
Divi’s Laboratories Q3 Results
Divi’s Laboratories Ltd, on February 11, reported a consolidated profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 902 crore for the third quarter ended December 2021, up by 92 percent from the profit of Rs 471 crore reported in the corresponding quarter a year ago.
On a sequential basis, the profit is higher by 49 percent from a PAT of Rs 606 crore reported in the previous quarter.
Consolidated revenues for the company that manufactures and custom-synthesizes generic active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), intermediates and nutraceutical ingredients stood at Rs 2,493 crore, up by 47 percent compared to Rs 1,701 crore reported a year-ago. Revenues in the preceding quarter stood at Rs 1,988 crore.
BofAML on M&M:
BofAML has a 'neutral' call on the stock with target at Rs 920 per share, an upside of 7 percent from current level.
"Farm weakness was offset by decent auto performance with balanced risk-reward. Analyst call painted a soft picture for the tractor segment," it added.
Mahindra and Mahindra was quoting at Rs 839.75, down Rs 13.35, or 1.56 percent.
KRChoksey view on Aurobindo Pharma
We believe sequential improvement in ARV sales and the fact that the company expects it to improve in Q4FY22, are positive. Also, strong API sales growth add to steady revenue growth outlook in the near term.
Further, the company’s emphasis on specialty and injectable business are favorable to profitable growth over medium – long term.
We introduce FY24E projections and expect Aurobindo’s revenue and adj. PAT to grow at 4.9%/17.1% over FY21-24E, respectively.
We apply 10.9x multiple on FY24E EPS of Rs 69.11 and maintain the target price at Rs 756 per share. Since it indicates an upside potential of 10.5% over the CMP, we maintain our “ACCUMULATE” rating on the shares of Aurobindo Pharma.
More than 100 stocks touched 52-week highs today:
Market at 12 PM
Benchmark indices were trading lower with Nifty below 17400 dragged by IT and realty stocks.
The Sensex was down 832.01 points or 1.41% at 58094.02, and the Nifty was down 250.30 points or 1.42% at 17355.50. About 858 shares have advanced, 2160 shares declined, and 89 shares are unchanged.
Shilpa Medicare ties up with Mylab Discovery for vaccine and therapeutics segment
Mylab Discovery Solutions, diagnostic solutions provider, announced its foray into the vaccine and therapeutics segment with its strategic tie-up with Shilpa Biologicals Pvt Ltd (a 100% subsidiary of Shilpa Medicare Ltd), a specialist manufacturer of vaccine and wide variety of biologicals.
Starting with Covid-19 vaccine manufacturing opportunity, the parties plan to strengthen the relationship by expanding the product portfolio in various other areas
including various biosimilars, other vaccines & diagnostics, Shilpa Medicare said in a BSE filing. The stock was trading at Rs 490, up Rs 14.25, or 3 percent. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 508.95 and an intraday low of Rs 462.10.
The scrip was trading with volumes of 143,156 shares, compared to its five day average of 10,781 shares, an increase of 1,227.85 percent.
India Cements Q3
Net profit went down 94.5% at Rs 3.3 crore against Rs 62 crore (YoY). Revenue fell 4.5% at Rs 1,108 crore against Rs 1,160 crore (YoY). EBITDA slipped 51.6% at Rs 105 crore against Rs 215.2 crore (YoY). EBITDA margin at 9.4% against 18.5% (YoY). The stock was trading at Rs 217.05, down Rs 5.75, or 2.58 percent. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 222.85 and an intraday low of Rs 214.70.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart on market fall:
We are seeing a sharp cut in the market on the back of a sharp jump in US bond yields due to 4 decade-high inflation however most of this fear is already factored in therefore we have to check how the market will negotiate a high-interest environment because we have seen the scenario of rising interest rates and rising equity markets.
Technically, Nifty is facing resistance in a cluster of 20-DMA and 100-DMA at 17600-17650 while 17300 is an immediate and important support level while 1700-16800 is a critical demand zone. The overall view will remain bullish till Nifty trades above the 16800 level while there are multiple resistances till 17800. A breakout of the 17800 level may lead to a move towards a fresh all-time high.
Zomato shares slip 9% despite narrowing Q3 losses
Zomato shares shed 9 percent on February 11 even after the company minimised its losses for the quarter ended December 2021.
Zomato on February 10 posted a consolidated loss of Rs 63.2 crore for the quarter ended December (Q3FY22). It had reported a loss of Rs 352.6 crore in the year-ago period.
Revenue from the operations came in at Rs 1,112 crore, up 82.7 percent against Rs 609.4 crore logged in a year back.
The restaurant aggregator and food delivery company said that its Gross Order Value (GOV) grew by 84.5 percent on-year and 1.7 percent on-quarter to Rs 55 billion or 5,500 crore ($733 million) in the third quarter of fiscal 2021-22.
Market at 11 AM
Benchmark indices were trading near the day's low point amid selling was seen in the across the sectors.
The Sensex was down 950.25 points or 1.61% at 57975.78, and the Nifty was down 281.90 points or 1.60% at 17323.90. About 784 shares have advanced, 2195 shares declined, and 74 shares are unchanged.
Buzzing Stocks:
Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) shares traded in the green in the morning session on February 11 in a market going deep into the red over global macro concerns.
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd, including its manufacturing arm Mahindra Vehicle Manufacturing, posted a net profit of Rs 2,484.24 crore after exceptional items. This was a sharp 57 percent surge from Rs 1,268 crore reported a year ago, the company said on February 10.
Revenue for the quarter rose 9 percent from a year ago to Rs 2,3594 crore. Tractor sales in the domestic market fell 9 percent on-year to 91,769 units. Sales in the auto segment, including commercial and passenger vehicles, dropped 2 per cent to 11,8174 units during the period.
BSE Capital Goods index fell 1.5 percent dragged by the Carborundum Universal, Thermax, SKF India
LIC board to meet today to consider IPO proposal
LIC board is going to meet today to consider IPO proposal. The board likely to discuss & approve likely discount for policyholders in IPO and the portion to be reserved for policyholders, quoting Sources, reported CNBC-TV18.
Vedant Fashions IPO share allotment expected today
Vedant Fashions, the largest company in India in the men's Indian wedding and celebration wear segment, is going to announce the IPO share allotment on February 11.
Investors are provided two options to check their allotment status - either on the website of IPO registrar or BSE website. Click to Read More
V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services:
US inflation in January came worse-than-expected at 7.5% pushing the 10-year yield to 2.03% discounting a hawkish Fed, which may raise rates by at least by 100 bp this year. A rate hike by even 50 bp in March is looking increasingly probable now. This is not good news for global equity markets.
Back home in India, our central bank is singing an ultra-dovish tune by taking a pro-growth risk. This is certainly good for GDP growth and equity markets, but it remains to be seen whether RBI's inflation target of 4.5% for FY 23 will be achieved.
The short-term market texture is now influenced by aggressive DII buying (Rs 5635 crore during last 5 days) dominating over FII selling. The fact that FIIs are now increasing their longs and reducing their shorts in the derivative market also is significant.
DIIs buying the beaten down financials, which are attractively valued, is a smart strategy. There is a message here for individual investors.
Motilal Oswal view on Hindalco Industries
The stock trades at 5.1x/4.4x our FY22E/FY23E EV/EBITDA estimate. A strong aluminum cycle demands a better multiple for the stock as it is globally the largest secondary aluminum producer and the largest aluminum recycling company.
We raise our FY23E LME aluminum assumption by 4% to USD2600/t, which results in a 2.6%/4.1%/5.9% growth in consolidated revenue/EBITDA/ adjusted PAT.
We retain our buy rating, but raise our target price to Rs 638/share (earlier: Rs 605).
Key risk to our call is a quick resolution to the European crisis, leading to a major correction in energy prices in Europe and subsequently aluminum prices, and higher aluminum output in China driving down prices.
Hindalco Industries touched a 52-week high of Rs 553.85 and was quoting at Rs 547, down Rs 0.35, or 0.06 percent on the BSE.
BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods index fell 1 percent dragged by the GRM Overseas, Vadilal Industries, Agro Tech Foods
Covid Updates:
India has recorded 58,077 COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, down from 67,084 daily cases a day before. This marks a 13.4 percent decline in the fresh infections in a day.
The fresh number of confirmed COVID-19 infection take the tally of confirmed cases in the country to 4,25,36, 137.
With 657 deaths registered in a day, the death toll due to the infectious disease has now reached 5,07, 177 while the COVID-19 mortality rate nationally stands at 1.2 percent.
Of these, 153 were the backlog deaths from Kerala which, at 188, also reported the highest COVID-19 fatalities in day. The second highest deaths, 45, were reported from Maharashtra while Karnataka reported 39 deaths in a day.
Rupee Opens
Indian rupee opened 45 paise lower at 75.39 per dollar on Friday against previous close of 74.94.
The 75 objective that we have been nurturing all through this week, was exceeded by a big margin yesterday, raising potential for a much bigger move aiming 75.5- 75.7, said Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
We will keep the downside reversal level for the day at 75.05, though a trend reversal is not expected until a close below 74.68 is seen, he added.
JSW Steel January crude steel production up 15% YoY
JSW Steel reported the Crude Steel production for the month of January, 2022 was at 16.46 lakh tonnes, that grew by 15% YoY on standalone basis.
Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments:
We resisted at the 17600 level, once again proving that it is a hurdle the index needs to get past on a closing basis.
From a medium term trend perspective, the market has turned sideways. The lower and upper range is 17000 and 17800 respectively and we need to get past either levels for a definite trend to emerge.
