Chandan Taparia Derivatives & Technical Analyst
The Nifty drifted lower on Friday but managed to attract buying interest. Strong momentum was witnessed in the last hour of the session, with the index heading towards 11,600. It has been forming a Hammer candle for the last three sessions, which indicates that the decline is being bought into.
It has started to form higher highs-higher lows after weakness was seen in the first three sessions of last week. A bullish reversal candle on the daily scale suggests a bounceback, while a Bearish Engulfing candle on a weekly scale suggests limited upside, thus the tug of war between the bulls and bears is likely to continue.
The Nifty now has to continue to hold above 11,550 to extend its upmove towards its 61.80 percent retracement of 11,620, then 11,666-11,700 zones. On the downside, supports are seen at 11,500, then 11,450 zones.
The index witnessed sharp selling pressure in the first three sessions, but staged a recovery from the lows in the last two sessions of the week. It has negated the formation of higher top–higher bottom on a weekly scale and till it doesn’t surpass its recent top of 11,760, limited upside could be seen in the market.
On the option front, maximum put open interest (OI) is seen at 11,500 and 11,400 strike. Maximum call OI is seen at 11,800 and 12,000 strikes. We have seen call unwinding at immediate strikes, while put writing is seen at 11,500 and 11,600 strikes. Option band, with its early OI inventory, signifies an immediate trading range between 11,500 and 11,700 zones. India VIX spurted to 10.24 percent at 13.89. The rise in VIX suggests limited upside in the market.
The Bank Nifty has broken out of the 27,750-28,388 band after consolidation for the past 19 sessions. It drifted lower to 27,135 zones. It has been forming multiple Hammer candles near its support zone, but follow-up buying is missing above 27,500. Now, it has to continue to hold above 27,440-27,500 zones to surpass its hurdle of 27,750. On the downside, support is seen at 27,165, then 27,000 zones.
We expect stock-specific positive moves in Reliance Industries, TVS Motor Company, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel, Tata Steel and RBL Bank to name a few, while see limited upside in select banking stocks.
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