Stock markets often overreact, both on the upside and the downside.
During bear phases, particularly during crashes when investors resort to panic-selling, stock prices go far below their fair value. Similarly, during bull runs, irrational exuberance pushes up prices to unrealistic levels. This 'manic-depressive' nature of the market, however, opens up opportunities for investors.
Warren Buffet famously exhorted investors to be “greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy”. Implementing this sound investment strategy is not easy because it is difficult to call the troughs and peaks of the market.
A good strategy is to look at market valuations in relation to long-term average valuations. Let's look at three popular parameters of valuations —market cap to GDP ratio, PE multiple and price to book value.
In India the long-term market to GDP ratio is around 77 percent, the long-term PE multiple is around 16 and the median price to book value is 3.23.
Where are these valuation parameters now? Market cap to GDP is 110 percent, one-year forward PE is around 21 and price to book is 4.44.
All three indicators are flashing red. However, some caveats are in order. It can be argued that the market cap to GDP is higher because the denominator GDP contracted in FY21. Therefore, the expected 15 percent nominal GDP growth in FY22 will make this ratio a bit more realistic.
Similarly, it can be argued that PE multiple is higher because the market is discounting the imminent cyclical expansion in growth and profits. The same logic will hold good for the price to book too.
Another popular bullish argument is that higher valuations are the “new normal” in these abnormal times of humungous liquidity and abysmally low returns from fixed income and other alternative asset classes.
All these arguments in defence of high valuations have some merit but there is no denying the fact that valuations are stretched and investors have to be cautious. Partial profit-booking will not be a bad idea.
New kids on Dalal Street
The new kid on the street—both Wall Street and Dalal Street—is the newbie retail investor. There has been an explosive growth in retail trading accounts after the the coronavirus pandemic.
Hyper-retail trading activity is exerting a significant influence on market trends. For instance, in May 2021, FPIs sold shares worth Rs 6,000 crore and DIIs bought shares worth Rs 2,000 crore only. The market should have gone down but it went up by 7.5 percent, assisted by retail buying.
In India, 14.7 million new demat accounts were opened in FY21. This trend of newbie retail investors flocking to the market and trading from home is a global phenomenon. Retail participation is a desirable trend from the perspective of inclusive growth. Ordinary people participating in wealth creation through the stock market is good but unfortunately, most retail investors are indulging in reckless trading and losing money instead of systematically investing and creating wealth.
Don't chase 'cats and dogs'
A recent unhealthy trend is a sharp rise in the prices of low-grade stocks— the so-called cats and dogs. These cats and dogs will be slaughtered in a bear ambush, which can happen any time. So, investors have to be cautious.
We are in a ferocious bull market and bull markets are known to climb many walls of worries. If we are on the cusp of an expansionary growth and earnings cycle, the market may further surprise on the upside. So ride this bull but don't jump onto the cats and dogs.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
