Last year’s IPO party continues to feel like a morning-after hangover. Of the 10 biggest listings of 2024, four big names - Hyundai Motor India, Swiggy, NTPC Green Energy, and Ola Electric - are now trading below their respective issue prices. Hyped to the skies, these shares are struggling to take off. Reasons? Lofty valuations, underwhelming execution, and post lock-in selling pressure. Which raises the question if it is time now to double down, or cut the losses?
Here is what went wrong with the overhyped IPOs of 2024, and what one should do now with these shares.
What’s Dragging Recent Listings?
The biggest IPO from the list, Hyundai Motor India, listed at Rs 1,960 but returns have since slipped around 3.87% from the listing price. Despite a robust brand and a strong hold in the mid-sized segment, the automaker’s shares have not been able to sustain gains. One of the reasons being cited is the pricing. “At the time when these IPOs were launched, there was significant euphoria in the market. Premiums were quite a lot,” said market expert Kranti Bathini. It isn’t about the company having not done well in its earnings performance, but on a comparative basis, high promotional activity and new launches by peers also put its market share under pressure,” Bathini added.
Adding to concerns is the structure of the issue, said analysts. Hyundai’s IPO was a pure offer-for-sale (OFS), with no fresh capital infusion. “In cases where the money raised isn't routed towards internal growth, that can be a concern too,” said Deepak Jasani, a senior market expert. Another aspect to understand the post-IPO performance is the the grey market expectations, Jasani said. Leading up to the listing, Hyundai traded at a premium of Rs 250-300 in the gray market, a sign of lofty expectations, which may have added to post-listing disappointment.
Swiggy, another much-anticipated listing, is down more than 20% from its IPO price. The key trigger was the lock-in expiry in April, which opened up 83% of its shareholding for trade, analysts said. The stock fell 6.4% on that day alone, hitting a 52-week low. “Anchor investors likely used it as an exit opportunity. At the time of listing, theories about growth looked better than the underlying fundamentals. Eventually, investors offloaded to neutralise risk,” Kranti Bathini said.
In Swiggy’s case, financials too haven’t helped. It’s Q4FY25 net loss nearly doubled to Rs 1,081 crore even though revenue grew by 45% on year. Continuous cash burn and a tough road to breakeven are weighing on sentiment. “They’re having a hard time breaking even. Competition is also intense,” Bathini added.
Ola Electric, having listed at Rs 76 per share, fell below its issue price after the lock-in expiry. Over 18 crore shares were unlocked during that week and the stock dropped over 7%. Read More
Newsflow around the company and weak short-term trends too have dampened investor confidence. “Ola was perceived as a leader in its segment, but negative narratives has hurt the shares. These stocks might still be away from being perfectly valued,” Bathini said.
NTPC Green Energy, backed by the PSU giant, trades slightly below issue price as well. Unlike peers, it didn’t face significant lock-in volatility, but it hasn't built much momentum either. “At the time of listing, renewables were an overhyped theme. The stock is yet to build up on that hype. But the company’s quality is good, and the sector still has long-term relevance,” Bathini noted. Read More
Business Outlook: Mixed But not Broken
In Hyundai’s case, recent Q4FY25 earnings showed a dip in PAT, but the company has maintained a steady growth outlook. Management reiterated its plans to expand local manufacturing and introduce EV models. Analysts believe the stocks remains a strong long-term story, though near-term competition from peers has hit share gains.
Swiggy’s core food delivery business continues to grow, but its Instamart quick-commerce arm is still deep in the red, contributing to the company’s widening losses.
Ola Electric, meanwhile, saw its market share fall to 32% in Q4FY25, now trailing rivals TVS and Bajaj. Some analysts have cited execution issues and after-sales challenges as reasons for the slide.
NTPC Green continues to expand its renewable energy pipeline, with long-term targets aligned to India’s clean energy transition. While short-term catalysts are missing, most analysts remain optimistic about its longer term outlook.
Valuations Reset, but Still not Cheap Enough?
What ties these underperformers together is that they were priced aggressively during a period of market euphoria. “These stocks haven’t necessarily been impacted only by recent corrections. Many were overvalued to begin with, and the post-lock-in selling pressure made it worse,” explained Deepak Jasani.
While Hyundai’s current valuations remain above those of listed auto peers, Ola and Swiggy are struggling to justify their pricing amid high cash burn and missing profits. NTPC Green’s valuation isn’t stretched, but its near-term growth narrative lacks excitement.
JM Financial said that Hyundai’s Q4FY25 EBITDA margin came in at 14.1% - 200 bps above their estimate - driven by favourable product mix, better cost control, and higher incentives. While the near-term outlook for India’s PV market is muted, Hyundai plans 26 model launches (including six EVs) and a new plant in Pune to fuel medium-term growth. JM Financial expects 11%/13% revenue/EPS CAGR over FY25–27 and maintains a Buy with a March 2027 target price of Rs 2,050.
HDFC Securities recently upgraded Swiggy to a ‘Buy, and said value is emerging after a ~50% stock price correction in the past five months. While food delivery metrics were in line, quick commerce outpaced expectations. Despite adding 2.8 million new monthly users, QC losses were mostly contained, a sign that peak investments may be behind. At current prices, HDFC Securities estimates that investors are paying under Rs 1,000 crore for the Instamart business and sees room for gradual loss reduction. Their target price is Rs 400/share, based on FY27 valuations.
For NTPC, Nuvama said consolidated Q4FY25 PAT rose 27% YoY on strong JV and subsidiary performance, even though standalone earnings were flat. NTPC’s group generation rose 2% in Q4, and the company has over 34GW of capacity under construction, including 14.6GW of renewable projects. Nuvama values NTPC Green at a 30% discount to current market price and retains a ‘BUY’ with a target price of Rs 404.
Retail and HNI investors, in particular, are more valuation-sensitive now. “They often rely on grey market trends and recent listing history to decide. When things turn shaky, demand can disappear quickly,” Jasani said. As more IPOs prepare to hit the market in the second half of 2025, investor sentiment remains cautious. The hope is that companies will take note — and price offerings more realistically, keeping near-term value and longer-term performance in balance.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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