The market rebounded nearly 1 percent in the truncated week ended October 3, especially after sharp fall of 2.7 percent seen in previous week, raising some hope for further recovery. This was a relief rally after the RBI Policy, wherein the central bank raised FY26 economic growth forecast to 6.8 percent along with reforms for banking sector. Hope for further rate cuts by US Federal Reserve, auto sales numbers, and sharp fall in oil prices also lifted sentiment, while the gold futures continued to see strong demand, hitting record high of $3,923.3 per troy ounce during the last week.
In the coming week starting from October 6, the market is expected to be positive with focus on corporate earnings and management's commentary about second half of FY26, IPO market, FOMC minutes, Powell speech, India-US trade deal related developments (if any), and US shutdown related updates especially after the Senate's failure to pass funding bills on Friday.
The Nifty 50 rallied 240 points (0.97 percent) to close at 24,894, and the BSE Sensex soared 781 points (0.97 percent) to 81,207, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices outperformed benchmark index, rising 2 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively.
"Overall, sector momentum has turned positive after GST rate cuts. Positive momentum is likely to sustain in the market, aided by accommodative monetary policy, a supportive monsoon season, and festive-led demand recovery," Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.
According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the market momentum is expected to be supported by strong H2FY26 earnings and seasonal demand tailwinds, though global trade developments and US policy actions could inject short-term volatility.
"The Fed’s recent 25-bps rate cut, coupled with prospects of further easing, is likely to bolster FII inflows into emerging markets. Notably, India’s valuation premium over its EM peers has moderated, creating room for incremental foreign allocations and reinforcing a constructive near-term outlook," Vinod said.
Here are 10 key factors to watch out for next week:
The quarterly earnings season for Q2FY26 is set to kick off by the IT leader Tata Consultancy Services next week on October 9. Overall, the results season is expected to be a mixed bag, according to experts.
In addition, Avenue Supermarts, Tata Elxsi, GM Breweries, Ashiana Ispat, Eimco Elecon, Evoq Remedies, Triton Corp, AAA Technologies, Elecon Engineering Company, Hathway Bhawani Cabletel & Datacom, Oswal Overseas, Pro Fin Capital Services, Sayaji Hotels (Pune), and Vivid Mercantile will also release their earnings scorecard in the coming week.
FOMC Minutes
Globally, the minutes of US Federal Reserve's policy meeting held in September will be closely watched. The central bank cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps in the said policy meeting to 4.00-4.25 percent range, which was the first cut in current calendar year. The Fed signals two more rate cuts in last two meetings of 2025.
Further, the speech by several Fed officials during the week including Stephen Ira Miran (who was the only official favoured for 50 bps cut in September meeting against majority for 25 bps cut) on October 8, and Chair Jerome Powell on October 9 will also be eyed.
Overall, the focus will be on further rate cut trajectory, comments on labour data and economic growth amid Trump tariffs.
Global Economic Data
Apart from FOMC minutes, the market participants will also keep an eye on the data points like consumer inflation expectations for September, and weekly jobs data from the United States.
Further, retail sales for August by Europe, monthly household spending and PPI by Japan will also be watched.
Domestic Economic Data
Back home, HSBC Services PMI final numbers for September month will be announced on October 6. As per preliminary estimates, services PMI fell to 61.6 in September compared to 62.9 in previous month.
Further, bank loan and deposit growth for fortnight ended September 26, and foreign exchange reserves for week ended October 3 will be released on October 10.
Next the focus will remain on activity at the institutional desk as the persistent selling by FIIs (foreign institutional investors) continued in the Indian equities but at the same time, DIIs (domestic institutional investors), which have been net buyers since August 2023, continued to compensate the FII outflow. It means the former's selling capped the upside, however, later one provided healthy support to the market.
FIIs have net sold Rs 8,347 crore in the week passing by, however, DIIs net bought Rs 13,013 crore worth shares during the same week.
Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee weakened further despite buying interest at lower levels. The currency depreciated by 0.09 percent to Rs 88.71 against the US dollar amid US tariff concerns but supported by RBI policy measures. This was despite the US dollar index trading in the 96-99 range for several weeks, ending the week 0.48 percent down at 97.71.
The coming week is set to be the record week for the primary market as seven public issues - Tata Capital, LG Electronics India, Rubicon Research, Canara HSBC Life Insurance Company, Canara Robeco Asset Management Company, Anantam Highways Trust, and Mittal Sections - worth more than Rs 30,000 crore will hit Dalal Street. The last record week was in October 2024 which made by passenger vehicle maker Hyundai Motor India alone with its Rs 27,859 crore fund-raise.
Meanwhile, workspace solutions provider WeWork India Management, Shlokka Dyes, Greenleaf Envirotech, DSM Fresh Foods and NSB BPO Solutions will close their IPOs next week.
On the listing front, total 28 new companies will be available for trading on the bourses next week including six from the mainboard segment - Pace Digitek, Glottis, Fabtech Technologies, Om Freight Forwarders, Advance Agrolife, and WeWork India Management.
The remaining 22 companies listing next week are from the SME segment, which are Bhavik Enterprises, Manas Polymers & Energies, Ameenji Rubber, M P K Steels, Rukmani Devi Garg Agro Impex, KVS Castings, Dhillon Freight Carrier, Suba Hotels, Om Metallogic, Vijaypd Ceutical, Sodhani Capital, Chiraharit, Sunsky Logistics, Munish Forge, Infinity Infoway, Sheel Biotech, Zelio E-Mobility, B.A.G.Convergence, Valplast Technologies, Greenleaf Envirotech, Shlokka Dyes, DSM Fresh Foods, and NSB BPO Solutions.
Technical View
Technically, the Nifty 50 needs to sustain above the previous week's high (24,905) which coincides with the midline of Bollinger bands as above it 25,000, 25,250 and 25,450 are the hurdles to watch. Until then, it may see consolidation with crucial support of 24,588 (the low of previous week). The index formed bullish candle with lower shadow on the weekly charts, indicating buying interest at lower levels, while the MACD still sustained bearish crossover above zero line but histogram remained below zero line. The RSI also showed negative crossover, which may need to surpass 60 zone for further uptrend with bullish crossover.
F&O Cues
The weekly derivative data indicated that the Nifty 50 is expected to be in the 24,800-25,100 range in the near term with 24,500-25,500 being broader trading range.
The 25,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 25,500 and 24,900 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,500, 24,900 and 25,100 strikes, while the maximum Put open interest was placed at the 24,800 strike, followed by the 24,700 and 24,600 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 24,900, 24,800 and 24,850 strikes.
India VIX
Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, fell sharply by 11.95 percent for the last week to 10.06, giving the comfort for bulls.
Corporate Action
Here are key corporate actions taking place next week:
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
