Daily Voice: SEBI’s REIT reclassification a pivotal shift, says WhiteOak Capital's fund manager

Overall, these regulatory changes are constructive for India’s IPO and primary market ecosystem, particularly for large issuers. By easing structural barriers, lowering the cost and risk of going public, and broadening institutional participation, they are likely to enhance the appeal and depth of the domestic capital markets. The elongation of the time to achieve the MPS (minimum public shareholding) requirements post listing, will reduce the selling pressure on large issuers and provide the market the window to absorb the supply overtime. The changes in anchor limits should add to the overall stability and confidence in the IPOs.

SEBI’s recent amendments mark a pivotal shift in the Indian investment landscape by reclassifying REITs as equity and broadening the scope of strategic investors.

Do you expect a significant increase in volume growth for companies benefiting from GST rate rationalisation?

Rate rationalization will simplify and streamline the GST structure, with an immediate positive impact on consumption demand. The focus on providing relief to the middle class is particularly encouraging, as it should support consumer sentiment through improved affordability and effective pass-through of benefits. The reduction in GST rates for select categories in durables and autos—from 28% to 18%—is especially welcome and could translate into higher volume growth in these segments, particularly in the run-up to the festive season.

In consumer staples, however, the rationalization is more likely to ease household budgets rather than materially accelerate volumes, implying that the benefit here may be felt more in consumer wallets than in company toplines.

Are you betting big on the premiumisation theme in your AMC portfolios?

India is projected to be the fastest growing major economy in the world and as per estimates by leading global agencies, India will be the third largest economy by 2030. By the end of this decade, India is projected to have a per capita income of US$5,000 and logical to assume that the disposable surplus that would be left with households after they meet their basic consumption needs would see a non-linear growth which will eventually find its way into more and/or better consumption.

A potential multi-decade growth opportunity is unfolding as per capita incomes rise creating inflection points for various categories where India is at the lower end of the consumption curve. Driven by the lowest data costs globally, internet has democratised aspirations across 200mn+ households which are at an early stage of adoption of many discretionary goods. The Indian consumer is increasingly more aspirational and expressive. Apart from demographics and rising income levels which are reasonably well understood, a higher female labour force participation is revolutionising the demand landscape silently.

While premiumization is evident across multiple categories, it is difficult to identify a single segment as the primary beneficiary. That said, consumer discretionary categories are likely to benefit disproportionately, given their higher sensitivity to aspirational spending and lifestyle upgrades. Although we are not positioning for this trend from a top-down perspective, we do find a greater number of opportunities on a bottom-up basis within consumer discretionary, which has historically been an alpha-rich segment of the market.

Do you think the market is slightly underestimating the impact of the GST rejig? Do you also see the market touching record highs by October, considering the positive sentiment around the India-US trade deal?

Markets function as powerful discounting mechanisms, often embedding future growth and policy changes well before they materialize in fundamentals. Thus, while we were not too bearish when President Trump announced penalty tariffs on India, we are neither too bullish post the GST rate cuts. In any case, our belief has been that in the very near term the market is impossible to predict, hardly any different than a coin flip.

Over the long term, markets worldwide have tended to deliver returns that are more or less in line with nominal GDP growth rate plus dividend yield. India’s nominal GDP growth rate is expected to be low double digits going forward and similar would be our expectation for the market return in rupee terms.

So far at this stage it seems that the GST rate rationalisation could offset some of the tariff related headwinds. Any positive news on tariffs would simply remove the additional penalty, but the base 25% rate would still remain in place which means India is unlikely to be better or worse off than peers.

Will IT and pharma continue to be strong sectors to buy?

While not taking a top-down view, IT and pharma are sectors where we generally find more bottom up opportunities. They are also heterogenous – with a diverse pool of companies with different investment drivers. The research team at WhiteOak is well-equipped to spot opportunities in these alpha rich segments of the market given the deep-domain expertise and global investing experience.

We pick great businesses run by a strong management teams and are available at attractive valuations to build our portfolio rather than take sector level calls.

Do you think foreign investors will hold back until they see clearer signs of growth?

We see the recent narrative around the growth slowdown as just a part of a normal business cycle. Over the years, there have been periods of slower economic and earnings growth, followed by times of faster growth. Domestic systemic liquidity position which was challenging a few months back seems to have eased significantly. India still remains the fastest growing large economy with 12-13% earnings growth expectations with a market diversity which is second only to the US.

The FII basket is also large – While India-dedicated flows have moderated, within the broader EM and Asia allocations there has been a visible rebalancing in favour of China. That said, FIIs continue to acknowledge India as a market which provides a very fertile ground for stock selection based alpha generation.

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