"Very high probability that Nifty can be in the range of 29,000-30,000 by next Samvat," Vikas Khemani, Founder and CIO, Carnelian Asset Management and Advisors, said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
In the new Samvat, according to him, the biggest market surprise could be significant FII flows. "Fed rate cut will lead to flows towards emerging markets and India will be a big beneficiary of that," he said.
After nearly four years of valuation de-rating in the IT sector, he believes the sector now offers an attractive counter-opportunity. "Much of the pessimism — including concerns around AI, slowdown in IT spending, a potential US slowdown, and H-1B visa constraints — appears largely priced in," he said.
Do you believe the market could deliver around 15% returns in the new Samvat, supported by earnings growth and an economic recovery, as some experts anticipate?
Yes. There is a very high probability that the Nifty can remain in the range of 29,000-30,000 by the next Samvat. We’ve seen a combination of rate cuts, liquidity support, tax benefits, and higher government spending — all of which are positive for growth.
Lower inflation, stable interest rates, and better fiscal discipline are also creating the right conditions for sustained market levels. We continue to believe that India’s growth story is intact and that equity markets have more room to grow as earnings improve.
If you were to categorise sectors like Diwali crackers — such as bombs, sparklers, chakris, and rockets — which sectors would fall under each category, and why?
There will be lot of sparkle in the consumer discretionary & auto space, banks (both private and public), pharma & CDMO. Some manufacturing-oriented stocks, which took hit due to the ongoing tariff embargo, can be rocket if US deals get done.
Will global markets continue to be influenced by the 'Trump factor' in the new Samvat as well?
From a global perspective, we are in a period of readjustment of the global order. The equation between US and China will remain volatile. Everything is collateral damage in the process. The uncertainty due to the “Trump factor” will continue to play though sensitivity to some of his announcements have gone down. His policy direction on trade, tariffs, immigration, and foreign relations could drive volatility across equities, commodities, and currencies.
Do you have any contrarian bets for the new Samvat?
After nearly four years of valuation de-rating in the IT sector, we believe the IT sector now offers an attractive contra opportunity. Much of the pessimism — including concerns around AI, slowdown in IT spending, a potential US slowdown, and H-1B visa constraints — appears largely priced in.
IT sector companies continue to maintain strong margins, and large-cap names are now trading at reasonable valuations. Recent TCS, HCL Tech, LTI Mindtree results were a beat on expectation. The key missing element earlier has been earnings growth, despite robust order books.
Historically, when the business cycle is at its weakest, growth visibility is limited, negative sentiment dominates — but these are often the best times for long-term investors to find value opportunities.
Do you expect stronger momentum in earnings and economic growth in the new Samvat compared to the previous year?
Yes, earnings and economic growth are expected to gain stronger momentum in the new Samvat. Rising capex, steady government spending, improving consumption, and resilient domestic demand are likely to drive this growth. With moderating inflation and healthy corporate fundamentals, Samvat 2082 is set to see a broader and more robust recovery than the previous year.
What could be the biggest surprise for the market in the new Samvat?
The biggest market surprise in the new Samvat could be significant FII flows. Fed rates cut will lead to flows towards Emerging markets and India will be big beneficiary of that. Everything else remain same, change in FII flows can rerate markets.
What do you see as the biggest challenges for the market in the new Samvat — both on the global and domestic fronts?
Globally, US markets are at all-time high, inflation remains elevated. There could be risk for US growth. Any negative surprise from US can have global implications. Markets may face volatility from geopolitical tensions, US policy unpredictability, interest rate movements, commodity price swings, and slowdowns in major economies.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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