Daily Voice: Bajaj Finserv AMC’s Nimesh Chandan flags 2 biggest market risks, spots 2 contrarian opportunities for Samvat 2082

The biggest risk in Samvat 2082, in my view, stems from global geopolitics and unresolved trade or tariff wars. These structural tensions can disrupt supply chains, impact commodity prices, and create volatility across currencies and equity markets. While reforms like GST 2.0 continue to strengthen India’s economic foundation, heightened global uncertainty could temporarily weigh on sentiment and market stability.

On the positive side, we believe India is entering an upcycle, supported by a revival in the domestic demand, which we shall see reflected in the corporate earnings and market performance.

What are your top sectoral picks for Samvat 2082, and what are the key drivers behind your choices?

We continue to remain bullish on Consumption. We also believe that Financial Services and other rate-sensitive sectors, given the stable interest rate environment and improving credit demand will do well. Within Financials, specifically banks and NBFCs stand to benefit from rising credit off-take, while insurance continues to see steady growth.

Real estate and home improvement sectors are also gaining momentum after an underperformance for the past two years, supported by urbanization trends, affordable housing demand, and a pick-up in the discretionary consumer spending.

How are global factors—such as a potential Trump, US Fed policy, and trade tariffs—expected to influence Indian markets in Samvat 2082?

We find that the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance and ongoing tariffs tend to influence market sentiment and capital flows more noticeably than they affect core economic fundamentals. At the same time, the government is stepping up its reform agenda, including measures like GST 2.0 and investment-friendly policies, which can help cushion any material impact of tariffs. Overall, while markets may react sharply to headlines, underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient.

Do you have any contrarian bets for Samvat 2082?

From a contrarian perspective, we are positive on the Home Improvement and Metals sector. In addition, certain Chemicals bets also stand out as good contrarian opportunities.

Given the presence of more tailwinds than headwinds, do you expect the markets to deliver 10–15% returns in Samvat 2082?

We expect a cyclical recovery in the economy, primarily driven by a revival in domestic demand. We shall see this recovery come through in corporate earnings over the next few quarters, supporting stronger business performance. As earnings improve, we anticipate this positive momentum to be gradually reflected in the equity markets.

Are you optimistic about the potential removal of the additional 25% tariff on Indian goods by the US in the new Samvat year?

The trade talks between India and the US are ongoing, with both governments signalling a constructive approach moving forward. While timelines remain uncertain, we expect the additional tariffs to be resolved, which should help ease trade-related pressures and support business sentiment.

Which sectors do you believe investors should avoid or expect to underperform in Samvat 2082?

We are currently underweight in IT Services and Utilities. Given that Indian IT is largely export-oriented, we are maintaining a cautious approach due to the persistent uncertainty around tariffs and a potential slowdown in the US economy.

Do you believe gold and silver will retain their appeal in the new Samvat year?

We expect gold to remain strong in 2026, supported by persistent ETF inflows and robust central bank buying. Emerging markets are increasingly reducing their reliance on the US dollar, accelerating gold accumulation as a neutral reserve asset. Central banks are purchasing around 80 tonnes per month, which is nearly five times their pre-2022 levels, creating a durable demand floor.

At the same time, rising fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and loose monetary policy are putting pressure on the US Dollar, with gold serving as a hedge against this loss of purchasing power. We have been bullish on Silver since the beginning of the calendar year. With a sharp rally in Gold as well as Silver, a correction, one can expect a pause or a correction for some time.

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