Shishir AsthanaMoneycontrol Research
Despite a tumultuous year for the Indian economy, the rupee has held on well. Doomsayers’ predictions of the currency touching 70 to a dollar based on expectations of record outflows did not materialise. The Reserve Bank of India deserves all credit for maintaining stability in the economy’s most volatile phase since the financial crisis of 2008.
The rupee depreciated by only 2.45 percent against the dollar starting the year at 66.20 and currently holding on at 67.83. It did, however, touch the 68.90 mark twice, first in February and then in late November.
The year 2016 was important as USD 34 billion in foreign currency non-residential (FCNR) deposits raised in 2013 were maturing. The year also saw outflows as the US. Fed started increasing interest rates. Further, demonetisation acted as the final blow for those investors who hoped that the economy, among the strongest in the world, would accelerate further.
As a result of these events debt outflows since November crossed a net of Rs 40,000 crore; the net figure for the whole of 2016 stands at an outflow Rs 33,925.40 crore. Equity markets, too, saw a net outflow of Rs 20,546.4 crore over the last two months but for the year the figure is a positive Rs 20,786.99 crore.
So, nearly USD 9 billion has left the country, around half of all outflows from emerging markets since November 9, the day after demonetisation, and the Trump victory in the United States, were announced. From a level of 66.70 just before the US election results and demonetisation were announced, the rupee touched a low of 68.87 before settling at the current level of 67.83, a reasonable fall in the circumstances.
Now, what is more important is how the rupee will behave in the days ahead, especially as the economy recovers from the de-mon shock.
The short-term view is bearish with rating agency CARE expecting the rupee to be around the 69-69.50 mark by March 2017.
While there is pessimism in Indian markets, foreign brokers feel India is the best currency market in Asia. The most marketed trade in Asian currency markets for 2017 by broking houses is going long on the Indian rupee and short on the Singapore dollar.
Goldman Sachs likes the rupee as it offers an attractive carry, strong external balance and falling inflation in India. Nomura feels that the Indian currency will outperform regional peers. Even as the global economy, apart from United States, show few signs of growth, India -- largely a domestic story -- is one of the few linear and independent growth stories in the world.
According to a Bloomberg survey the rupee is expected to earn 5.9 percent, including interest, by end 2017, the highest total return in Asia.
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