China ramped up support for its currency via the daily reference rate after the Federal Reserve’s caution over future interest rate cuts boosted the dollar and sent the offshore yuan to a one-year low.
The People’s Bank of China set the so-called fixing at the strongest bias since July versus the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey on Thursday. That sent the offshore yuan 0.2% higher.
The move is a sign authorities are ramping up support for the yuan in the face of the dollar’s resilience and growing expectations that China will tolerate a weaker currency to mitigate the impact of US tariffs on the nation’s exports. PBOC monetary department head Zou Lan said on Friday that FX policy will aim to “vigorously counter external impacts.”
“The fixing gap widening mirrored the mounting FX depreciation pressure due to dollar strength and PBOC’s escalating efforts to defend the currency,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asia FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. “As the PBOC shows its strong commitment to limit yuan depreciation this year, the relatively steady onshore yuan is expected to pull the offshore yuan back to near 7.3 level by year end.”
The central bank had been supporting the yuan with stronger-than-expected fixings since Donald Trump won the US election, setting a soft red line around 7.2. The daily rate, which limits moves in the onshore yuan by 2% on either side, is the PBOC’s most frequently-used tool to manage the currency.
PBOC set the fixing 1,232 pips stronger than estimated on Thursday as the dollar surged after the Fed signaled slower rate cuts next year. Fed’s hawkish outlook also took a toll on other Asian currencies, with the Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht down around 1% each.
Chinese state banks sold dollars after the onshore market opened, according to traders who asked not to be identified as they are not allowed to speak publicly. Offshore branches of big banks also reduced yuan lending in the swap market, resulting in tighter liquidity offshore, the traders said.
“The PBOC will continue to restrain the upside pressures on USD/CNY for now,” said Alvin. T. Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “But I think the exchange rate will break to new highs in 2025 on the outbreak of a second US-China trade war,” he said.
Along with trade tensions with the US, the world’s second largest economy is also challenged by a prolonged property crisis and souring consumer sentiment. To rejuvenate growth, top officials last week signaled bolder economic support next year, embracing a “moderately loose” monetary policy and pledging “more proactive” fiscal policy.
Expectations the PBOC will cut interest rates is also dragging down Chinese bond yields, which is exacerbating the nation’s yield gap with the US and the yuan’s losses.
BNP Paribas SA, UBS AG and Societe Generale SA all predict the onshore yuan will weaken beyond last year’s record low of 7.3510 some time in 2025.
The onshore yuan is set to fall for the seventh straight session. It was down 0.2% to 7.2987 per dollar at 10:41 am in Shanghai.
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