The week beginning June 12 is packed with important national and global macroeconomic data releases that could have an impact on trading on Dalal Street.
In India, CPI inflation (for May), industrial production, and manufacturing production data (for April) will be released on June 12. WPI inflation readings for May will be released on June 14.
On the global front in the next week, inflation data releases for the US (June 13) and Eurozone (June 16) for May are important. In addition, global markets are waiting for the interest rate decisions from the central banks of the US (June 14), Europe (June 15), Japan (June 16), and UK GDP numbers for April (June 14).
Additionally, the latest unemployment reports from the UK (June 13) and China (June 14) are important. Also, in the upcoming week, trade data will come out from Japan (June 14) and Eurozone (June 15).
Let's take a look at the key economic data releases in the upcoming week:
June 12 (Monday)
India CPI May
India's headline retail inflation rate dropped sharply for the second month in a row, hitting an 18-month low of 4.7 percent in April.
India Industrial Production April
India's industrial output grew by 1.1 percent in March - the slowest pace in five months. At 1.1 percent, the March IIP growth figure is well below the consensus estimate of 3.2 percent.
June 13 (Tuesday)
UK Unemployment Rate April
The unemployment rate of the United Kingdom was 3.9 percent in March 2023, an increase on the previous month, when it was 3.8 percent.
US CPI, Core CPI May
US consumer prices on a monthly basis overall increased 0.4% from a year earlier in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in March. On a yearly basis, the all-items index edged up 4.9% in April; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending April 2021.
June 14 (Wednesday)
India WPI Inflation May
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation slipped into negative territory for the first time since July 2020. The inflation came in at -0.92% in April falling largely due to base effect.
The food price inflation in April dropped significantly to 0.17 percent from March's 2.32 percent. The manufactured products inflation declined 2.42 percent slipping deep into the negative zone while primary articles and fuel & power inflation in at 1.6 and 0.9 percent respectively.
UK GDP April
UK's economy witnessed an unexpected contraction of 0.3% in March after showing no growth in February 2023. While industrial output (0.7%) and construction (0,2%) grew, the services sector dropped 0.4%. GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to March 2023.
US Fed Interest Rate Decision
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make the big monetary policy decisions in its meeting scheduled next week (June 13-14). Policymakers will announce their outlook on June 14.
In its last meeting (May 3), Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates by 25 basis points to to the 5.00%-5.25% range.
China Unemployment Rate May
China's job market showed improvement in April as the nation's economy is rebounding. The surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2 percent in April, down 0.1 percentage point from March.
June 15 (Thursday)
India Imports, Exports, Trade Balance May
India's exports dipped by 12.7 percent year on year to $34.66 billion in April this year from $38.38 billion recorded last year. Imports too declined by 14 percent to $49.9 billion as against $58.06 billion recorded in the same month last year. And, the trade deficit widened to $15.24 billion in April 2023 against $18.36 billion a year ago.
ECB Interest Rate Decision June
In the last meeting, Governing Council raised the three key European Central Bank interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 3.75%, 4.00% and 3.25% respectively, with effect from May 10 2023.
BoJ Interest Rate decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) last made no changes to its yield curve control (YCC) policy that sets a short-term interest rate target of -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around zero. But the central bank modified its guidance on the future policy path and removed a pledge to keep interest rates at "current or lower levels." All eyes are now on what the central bank announces on June 16.
June 16 (Friday)
India Bank Loan and Deposits Growth
According to figures from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), bank loans grew 15.4 percent year-on-year in the fortnight ending May 19, compared to 12.1% from the same period in the last year. In absolute terms, credit outstanding stood at Rs 138.9 lakh crore as of May 19, rising by Rs.18.6 lakh crore from May 20, 2022, vs 13.0 lakh crore in the same period from the last year. Deposits stood at Rs 183.7 lakh crore increasing 10.9 percent year-on-year for the period.
Eurozone CPI, Core CPI May
According to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, Euro area annual inflation was expected to be 6.1% in May 2023, down from 7.0% in April. The core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also eased more than anticipated, falling to 5.3 percent from 5.6 percent.
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