India is expected to witness higher crop production in 2025 on account of above-average rainfall predictions and early onset of monsoons but final output would highly rely on spatial distribution across the country, a senior government official told Moneycontrol.
Early monsoons do not necessarily always translate into higher production, though such results are probable and expected by the government, the official said. The official added that caution needs to be exercised in such conditions as some areas might be prone to flooding or drought, resulting in crop destruction.
This year, the southwest monsoon hit Kerala on May 24, eight days ahead of the normal date of arrival, the earliest since 2009. The onset of the rainy season is usually recorded around June 1 when it crosses the coast into Kerala.
The early onset this year resulted in early sowing of kharif crops in the country, raising hopes of a better harvest this season. According to experts, the overall area under sowing is at 40 percent of the normal area sown in 2025 so far, as against 36 percent last year.
“Sowing began a little early this year due to the early monsoon onset, and has now stayed elevated as the monsoon has also picked up. Total area under sowing (43.7 million hectares), as on July 4 was sharply higher than last year (by 11 percent). Sowing of rice (6.9 million hectares; 7 percent higher), pulses (4.3 million hectares; 35 percent), coarse cereals (7.7 million hectares; 21 percent) and oilseeds (10.8 million hectares; 14 percent) have all surged in the last week. Among non-food crops, cotton (8 million hectares; 1 percent) remains healthy, while jute (0.5 million hectares; 3 percent lower 0n-year) has lagged,” said Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global.
India is expected to witness an above-normal monsoon in 2025, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said in April.
Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall (June-September) over the country as a whole is likely to be 105 percent of the long-period average (LPA), which is 87 cm, with a model error of +/-5 percent, the weather department had said during its first estimate for southwest monsoon.
The season is crucial for India's farm sector, which supports the livelihood of about 42.3 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 percent to the country's GDP. In India, kharif or fain-fed crops are sown with the onset of the monsoon, between June and September, and are harvested at the end of the season. The main kharif crops are rice, maize, cotton, sugarcane, groundnut, and various pulses and oilseeds.
To be sure, in 2024, monsoon had over-extended into October in India, flooding several regions and damaging crops.
According to IMD data, India in 2024 recorded rainfall to the tune of 108 percent of LPA (above normal), 95 percent of LPA (below normal) in 2023, 108 percent of LPA (above normal) in 2022 and 105 percent of LPA (above normal) in 2021.
Monsoon spatial distribution
While overall rainfall remains healthy in India so far, the spatial divergence may be a cause for concern for the agricultural sector.
According to a July 10 IMD report, India witnessed the second consecutive week of excess to large excess rainfall activities over central and adjoining northwest India.
In terms of geographical distribution, the weekly cumulative rainfall exceeded 100 percent in India for several regions including East Madhya Pradesh (199 percent), Saurashtra and Kutch (150 percent), Vidarbha (130 percent), West Rajasthan (106 percent), and Chhattisgarh (100 percent), the report said. The week under consideration was from July 3 to 9.
“The monsoon's spatial distribution is uneven with 44 percent of the country by area receiving excess to large excess. For now, no adverse impact is indicated by retail daily food prices,” said Guara Sen Gupta, chief economist, IDFC First Bank.
Emkay noted that the spatial divergence has risen in the country again. While north and west India (32 percent above the long-term average or LTA) and Central India (38 percent above LTA) have seen healthy rains so far, the southern peninsula (7 percent below LTA) has had deficient rains, along with east and Northeast India (22 percent below LTA). The cumulative rainfall as on July 12 was 11 percent higher than the LTA, thus remaining above-normal, while rainfall for the week ended July 9 was 26 percent above LTA, Emkay said.
Experts also believe that rural demand would pick up this year with expectations of a higher crop output.
Gupta expects growth in agriculture GVA (gross value added)—which refers to the total value of goods and services produced in the agricultural sector after deducting the cost of inputs and raw materials—to rise to 6 percent in FY26 from 4.6 percent in FY25.
Meanwhile, the overall basin-wise reservoir levels are in surplus in 2025, and above last year’s level as well. As of July 3, the overall level is 75 percent above the LTA, and 93 percent above last year’s level, said Emkay.
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