World Bank cuts 2023 forecasts and warns of global recession

“The crisis facing development is intensifying” and the setbacks to global prosperity will likely persist, World Bank President David Malpass wrote in a foreword to the bank’s semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report. He said GDP in emerging-market and developing economies at the end of next year will be about 6% below the level expected on the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Spillovers from a period of pronounced weakness in the US, China and the European Union are exacerbating other headwinds faced by poorer nations, the lender said. While inflation is moderating, there are signs that pressures are becoming more persistent, with central banks having to raise interest rates faster than expected.

“The combination of slow growth, tightening financial conditions, and heavy indebtedness is likely to weaken investment and trigger corporate defaults,” the World Bank said. “Urgent global action is needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress.”

The lender, which is reviewing its operational model, said a focus on the following areas is critical given limited policy space:

National policymakers must ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups

Inflation expectations need to remain well anchored

Financial systems must continue to be resilient

The World Bank called for a “major increase” in investment for developing nations, including new financing from the international community and from the repurposing of existing spending, such as inefficient agricultural and fuel subsidies.

“Even though the world is now in a very tight spot, there should be no room for defeatism,” Malpass said. “There are significant reforms that could be undertaken now to strengthen the rule of law, improve the outlook and build stronger economies with more robust private sectors and better opportunities for people.”