The upcoming budget may see an enhanced focus on farmers and women, given the recent political context of the BJP losing its absolute majority in the general elections and upcoming assembly elections in a few states.
Two people aware of the budget discussions told Moneycontrol that the annual payout to farmers under the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi could increase to Rs 12,000 .
Currently, an income support of Rs 6,000 is given per year in three equal instalments to all land holding farmers. The government could take this up to Rs 12,000 a year. Further, instead of quarterly payouts, a cash transfer of Rs 1,000 could be made every month.
The budget could also announce a scheme under which Rs 1 lakh would be transferred to women below the poverty line.
The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, a rural housing scheme, has been a success story for the government. The Budget could see an enhanced focus on the scheme. As of June 12, 2024, 2.94 crore houses have been sanctioned and 2.62 crore houses have been completed.
Modi 3.0 will be presenting its first budget against a changed backdrop – the ruling BJP has come to power without an absolute majority, losing seats in traditional strongholds like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Haryana besides Karnataka.
Further, the BJP is facing state elections a few months from now. Haryana and Maharashtra go to polls in November; Jharkhand and Delhi go to polls in January and February early next year.
Feedback from cadres
This time around, the budget is likely to incorporate feedback coming from the party cadres of the need to reach out to the farmers, youth, and women. The kisan, yuva and mahila constituencies could thus be the major focal point of Budget 2024-25.
The people cited told Moneycontrol that the government is concerned about the next set of state elections. Importantly, the recent results of Assembly bypolls in which the opposition INDIA bloc won 10 of the 13 seats, while the BJP won two. This has only perhaps reinforced the immediate need to connect with these three crucial constituencies.
Women are a constituency that the Modi government is hoping to attract. A CSDS analysis of voting patterns shows that 37 percent of men and 36 percent of women voted for the BJP this time.
During the 2019 general elections, BJP’s success was seen to be linked to its popular welfare schemes specifically targeted towards women such as free LPG.
Recently, Shivraj Singh Chauhan's Laadli Bhena Scheme, which was introduced days before voting in the election in Madhya Pradesh (MP), was cited as one of the reasons for a spectacular win by the BJP in the state.
The budget could well likely be a mix of socialism, populism, and prudence with a clear outreach to crucial constituents that are important for the BJP to win over.
Building bridges with farmers
The Modi government’s relationship with farmers has been somewhat tumultuous. The government's move to bring in three new farm laws in 2021 led to protests that lasted a year. While the government decided to drop the farm laws in early 2022, a section of farmers have sought legal guarantees for a minimum purchase price for all crops.
Farmers, especially in the northern states, have been complaining about falling incomes. A big chunk of India’s population, nearly 55 percent, depends on agriculture.
The Modi government had promised to double farm incomes at the start of his tenure. With a new agriculture minister, Chauhan, who is widely seen as having scripted a turnaround in Madhya Pradesh for farmers, in charge, the expectation is that he will be able to rebuild the broken bridges with the farmer community.
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