Timely and well-distributed monsoon rainfall across northern and western India has boosted kharif sowing, raising hopes of a stronger harvest this year.
Rice sowing grew 12.4 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from 11 percent growth recorded just a week earlier, according to data reviewed by Moneycontrol. Sowing of coarse cereals also remained upbeat, rising 13.6 percent from a year earlier, aided by above-normal rainfall in Rajasthan and adjoining regions.
A strong harvest could help ease food inflation further, improve rural incomes, and support consumption, a key driver of India’s economic growth. Cooling food prices may also give the central bank more room to consider cuts in interest rates, though much of this will depend on how rainfall patterns play out in the weeks ahead in key farming regions.
Pulses sowing rose 2.3 percent, but oilseeds acreage contracted by 3.7 percent, indicating uneven momentum across crops. Jute and cotton sowing was also down from last year’s levels. As of mid-July, total kharif acreage was 4.1 percent higher than a year earlier, easing from the 6.7 percent growth in the previous week.
Tur cultivation under pressure
To be sure, while overall pulse acreage improved, tur (pigeon pea), a key kharif crop, remains a concern. Tur sowing was down 5 percent from last year.
Karnataka accounts for the largest share (29 percent) of tur output, but Telangana and Andhra Pradesh also have a significant share at 13 percent combined. Both these states have faced rainfall deficits of over 20 percent so far, even as the country overall has received 7 percent excess rainfall.
Tur or arhar has highest weight among pulses in the inflation basket. The staple alone accounts for 27 percent share in pulses basket.
Telangana also accounts for 9.4 percent of the country’s rice sowing and 11.5 percent of oilseed acreage, underscoring the importance of its weather and water availability to national trends.
Despite lower rainfall, reservoir levels in the region may help offset concerns. As of mid-July, Andhra Pradesh’s reservoirs were at 271 percent of the 10-year average, while Telangana’s were 5 percent higher.
In contrast, Madhya Pradesh, which contributes a fifth of India’s pulses acreage, has received 62 percent more rainfall than its long-period average, boosting sowing prospects.
Excess rainfall
Of India’s 36 states and Union Territories, eight have received below-normal rainfall, while seven have seen excess or large excess rains.
If current sowing trends continue, India’s kharif output may exceed last year’s levels, which could help keep food inflation in check and support rural consumption in FY25.
India’s inflation declined to its lowest level in six-and-a-half years of 2.1 percent, as food items slipped into deflation for the first time in 74-months.
India’s rural performance was one of the bright spots in GDP in FY25, with the sector recording its fastest pace of growth (4.63 percent) in five years.
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