The market is divided on the US Federal Reserve hike on Thursday. News agency polls show a small majority expect a hike; CNBC CFO poll shows less than 25 percent expect a hike; CME Fed Funds Rate Futures likewsie shows expectations of a hike are at around 22 percent.
Polls Galore: Will Fed Hike* Reuters poll shows a small majority expect a rate hike* Bloomberg poll: 56 percent expect hike in September; 14 percent say October; 25 percent say December* CNBC Global CFO Council Poll says 22 percent expect hike in September, 6 percent in October, 28 percent in December* CME Fed Funds Rate Futures show less than 22 percent expect a hike
So what does it mean for the Indian markets?
SCENARIO ONE: Fed hikes and says will be data dependent.
Best for risk assets, rupee, Nifty, bonds will rise
SCENARIO TWO: Fed does not hike but indicates it was a close call
Impact: Status quo to marginally negative
SCENARIO THREE: Fed hikes and hints it may hike again
Bad for rupee, Nifty, bonds
SCENARIO FOUR: Doesn’t hike and sounds very iffy on economy
Markets may fall further.
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