As nations converge in Glasgow to find a solution to the climate change crisis, much of the spotlight is on India. In an exclusive interview, Ulka Kelkar, Director-Climate, World Resources Institute India, takes Moneycontrol through the opportunities, challenges and responsibilities that make for India's unique position as it enters the 26th edition of the Conference of Parties (COP26) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Talks on climate cannot be held in isolation, and issues affecting economic recovery, health and jobs would remain key issues much as carbon emissions and greenhouse gases, she said.
Edited excerpts.
COP26 is being defined by the global mood of geopolitical institutions. Where does India stand at the Summit in Glasgow?
When these summits first started in the late 90s, India was very much a developing country. There was only one big bloc called the G-77 with China and all the developing countries. But, now, India is in an unique position, whereby our per capita emissions of carbon are lower than the world average, and even lower than many developing countries. Being a big country, our emissions tend to, on aggregate, look big. But, in terms of our development, or energy use, we are way lower than countries like China.
On the other hand, our past emissions are very low, meaning we have not contributed to the problem. But, our future emissions are projected to grow to be one of the largest as our economy develops. That is why a lot of responsibility and therefore a lot of the spotlight falls on us.
The other way of looking at it is that we are highly vulnerable to climate change. Whether it is our agriculture, coastal areas, Himalayan water resources, heat stress, all are extremely vulnerable to climate change.
We are in this unique position where we have a lot at stake. In that sense, we are like these smaller developing countries for whom it is almost a matter of survival. But, we also have a lot to gain from choosing a climate-friendly path to development. Over the next two decades, we can start producing green steel, become a major hub for e-vehicle manufacturing and harness a massive amount of renewable energy.
What is it realistically that COP26 is looking to achieve that the previous 25 meetings have not been able to ? What has changed?
There have been 25 COPS before this one. But, that is the design of the process. It's because climate change is a problem that is so connected to our economy, from the way we produce energy to the way we manufacture goods and we live in our cities. It cannot be solved with a single one-time agreement.
That's why it happens under this United Nations Framework, where every country in the world comes together once a year. Also, only if each country agrees to every word of the agreement does it pass. Because climate change is a global problem, any one country doing its own thing will not solve it.
The reason why this COP is particularly important is because where we are right now is a kind of a combination of three things. One, there has been some progress. Before the Paris Agreement of 2015 was agreed on, it looked like the world was headed towards a four degrees Celsius warming by the end of the century, which would be catastrophic.
After the Paris Agreement, when countries made pledges, we were headed for three degrees Celsius of warming. As of today, based on what countries have announced, we are headed towards two degrees Celsius of warming. Of course, they have to implement their announcements. So there is progress.
But, the second thing is that there is not nearly enough progress. We actually want to make sure that we go below two degrees Celsius of warming, and try very hard that the warming is not more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is important because many of the effects of climate change will start getting felt at even one-and-a-half degrees of warming, and particularly for very sensitive locations like coastal areas, small islands and the Himalayas.
What do you think would be considered a success after this meeting?
The success of this COP will really hinge on all countries announcing more action plans to cut their emissions rapidly, especially over the next 10 years. We are in this very decisive decade right now, whereby if we do not take action now in the 2020s, then after that it will become more difficult and more expensive to stay within the 1.5 degree Celsius rise target or 'safe warming'.
The second measure of the success of this COP 26 would be finding ways to finance these kinds of actions. Developed countries have not given enough funding to developing countries.
Do you think nations, whether developed or developing, would have to prioritize spending on healthcare in the short term rather than on climate change ?
This is what people have been talking about, for almost two years now, ever since the COVID-19 pandemic first hit. The pandemic has shown us that climate, nature, health, and jobs are very closely linked. So, we cannot discuss climate action in a vacuum anymore. Last year's COP could not happen because of the pandemic, which is why the stakes are even higher this year.
At this COP, there are a few things that have come to the forefront. One is that we must use this opportunity to build back better. This means whatever measures countries put in place such as recovery or stimulus packages and their future infrastructure investments, they should choose to prioritize green sectors like renewable energy, and not bail out dirty polluting, sunset industries.
The second aspect is recognizing that as you invest in new green infrastructure and renewable energy, you will create new jobs and jobs in sunrise industries. So we have something which is not a cost or a trade-off. As one small example, during the pandemic, rural hospitals in Jharkhand which were spending a lot of money on diesel to run their ventilators were able to switch to renewable energy such as solar, save a lot of their costs and divert that money towards health needs.
How well-positioned is India in this regard? Do you you see a situation where there could be less outlay towards climate change given the needs of more healthcare ?
I think the most efficient way to do this is by mainstreaming climate considerations into every sector’s budget. For example, if you want to invest in a new power plant to bring energy, do you choose to generate that electricity from a thermal power plant or do you choose a renewable power plant?. Purely on cost considerations right now, renewables are becoming competitive with coal.
Similarly, with transport, we are talking now of whether in the transport budget you can bring in a sales mandate or subsidies for electric vehicles, which are less polluting. So, it is not really a matter of dividing up the pie, but instead expanding the pie and making sure that you bring in climate considerations at the decision-making stage itself.
We are talking about transitions that will start now but will take decades. So there is enough time for industry to plan and to respond in a way that addresses both climate and considerations. It does not have to be an abrupt transition, whereby one year worth of economic recession changes the calculation completely.
Do you think this COP could finally see an agreement being reached whereby the developed economies finally agree to the development finance they have promised to developing nations ?
This is something which was very much in every agreement that has been signed till now, stating that the developed countries will pay for climate action in the developing countries. The problem is how much?. So in 2009, all countries agreed that developed countries would pay developing countries a sum of $100 billion every year between 2020 and 2025.
Now as of 2020, countries did not reach that number. Also, whatever money has come, it has come not only in the form of grants, which is required for things like adaptation in agriculture, health and water, but in the form of loans and investments.
The latest report that came out just two days ago says that the $100 billion figure will be met three years later, only in 2023. This has become a sign of mistrust in that, why are countries whose economies are, in the trillions of dollars, finding it so difficult to collectively find $100 billion to give to the developing world.
Also, this figure is only a fraction of what is actually required for climate action. So it was also agreed that a new round of negotiations will start at this COP on what the next goal should be. And the next goal should be in the trillions rather than the billions.
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