India Q4 GDP Highlights: Economy tops 8% in FY24; FM says growth momentum to continue in third term of PM Modi

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India Q4 GDP Live updates: Growth momentum will continue in the third term of PM Modi-led govt
"Today's GDP data showcases robust economic growth with a growth rate of 8.2% for FY 2023-24 and 7.8% for Q4 of FY 2023-24. This remarkable GDP growth rate is the highest among the major economies of the world. It is worthwhile to note that the Manufacturing sector witnessed a significant growth of 9.9% in 2023-24, highlighting the success of the Modi government's efforts for the sector. Many high-frequency indicators indicate that the Indian economy continues to remain resilient and buoyant despite global challenges. India’s growth momentum will continue in the third term of PM Shri @narendramodi-led government." tweets Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Growth projections from global agencies indicate India will grow by 7% in FY25, say sources

India's economic growth for FY24 topped 8 percent, giving a boost to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government a day ahead of final phase of voting in Lok Sabha Elections. The counting of votes will take place on June 4.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Growth prospects appear bright, though external factors pose a downside risk, say sources

Sources told Moneycontrol

--Forecast of a normal monsoon bodes well for the agricultural sector.

--Domestic economic activity remains resilient, backed by strong investment demand and upbeat business and consumer sentiments

--Strong corporate and bank balance sheets

--Government’s continued Capex push.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: What analysts say

--Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head Research and Outreach, Icra

"With transient factors likely to dampen growth in the first half of FY25, we expect the GDP growth to decelerate from the 8.2% recorded in FY24."

--Sachchidanand Shukla, Group Chief Economist, Larsen & Toubro

"Broader story of sustained investment growth and subdued consumption along with flattish government expenditure continues."

--Sakshi Gupta, Principal Economist, HDFC Bank

"GDP growth surprised again with the wedge with gross value added (GVA) continuing to remain high due to higher growth in net taxes."

"Sector wise, manufacturing and construction growth continued to remain strong. On the expenditure side, consumption growth edged up from the previous quarter, although remained in low single digits."

"Going forward, we expect the wedge between GDP and GVA to start normalising from the second quarter of FY25 as government spending goes up, and expect overall GDP growth of 6.5% for FY25."

--Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers

"This year, we expect a meaningful pickup in private consumption and a possible modest deceleration in investment growth. With robust growth and declining inflation, the Indian economy is in an enviable position, poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world."

"While these strong growth figures may present a challenge for the Reserve Bank of India in its monetary policy decisions, slower inflation and ongoing fiscal consolidation should pave the way for modest rate reductions in the first half of 2025."

"This emerging scenario bodes well for the Indian equity market."

--Garima Kapoor, Economist, Institutional Equities, Elara Securities

"The high-frequency indicators during the first two months of this financial year suggest FY25 has started on a relatively stable footing."

"Although the capex momentum has moderated owing to elections, basis the pipeline of approvals/sanctions, we expect private capex to pick up gradually from the back half."

"Amid subdued core inflation prints and forecasts of normal monsoon, there should a fillip to consumption demand hereon. We expect FY25 GDP growth of 7%."

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Centre spends 99% of capex target at Rs 9.48 lakh cr in FY24

The Union government spent Rs 9,48,506 crore on capital expenditure in 2023-24 as against the revised estimates of Rs 9,49,555 lakh crore for 2023-24, showed government data.

After briefly getting affected due to heavy monsoon in the country in July and August last year, execution of formation work gathered pace in September.

In the month of March last year, Centre utilised Rs 1,42,893 crore as compared with Rs 1,49,292 crore in March last year, indicating a faster pace of approvals and implementation ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Read more here

India Q4 GDP Live updates: FY25 has started on a relatively stable footing, says analyst

Garima Kapoor, Economist, Institutional Equities, Elara Securities

"The high-frequency indicators during the first two months of this financial year suggest FY25 has started on a relatively stable footing."

"Although the capex momentum has moderated owing to elections, basis the pipeline of approvals/sanctions, we expect private capex to pick up gradually from the back half."

"Amid subdued core inflation prints and forecasts of normal monsoon, there should a fillip to consumption demand hereon. We expect FY25 GDP growth of 7%."

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Economic growth highest among large economies globally

India's economic growth for the full fiscal year 2023/24 was revised up to 8.2%, the highest among large economies globally, from an earlier government estimate of 7.6%.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Fiscal deficit at 5.63% for FY24, says FinMin

At 5.6 percent, the Indian government's fiscal deficit for FY24 was lower than the revised estimate of 5.8 percent of GDP, due to strong revenue collection and lower subsidy spending.

In the interim Budget for FY25, the finance ministry made a downward revision in the fiscal deficit target for 2023-24 at 5.8 percent from 5.9 percent of the GDP.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: GVA grows 7.2% in FY24
"This GVA growth has been mainly due to significant growth of 9.9 per cent in manufacturing sector in 2023-24 over a contraction of (-)2.2 per cent in 2022-23 and growth of 7.1 per cent in 2023-24 over 1.9 per cent in 2022-23 for mining sector," the government said in a press release.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Nominal GDP sees 9.6% growth rate for FY24

Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24 over the growth rate of 14.2% in FY 2022-23

Growth rates in Nominal GVA and Nominal GDP for Q4 of FY 2023-24 have been estimated at 8.0% and 9.9% respectively

India Q4 GDP Live updates: GVA grows 7.2% in FY24

GVA has grown by 7.2% in 2023-24 over the growth rate of 6.7% in 2022-23

Q4 GVA at 6.3%

Just In
India's FY24 fiscal deficit at Rs 16.54 lakh crore, 95.3% of the revised estimates

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Economy grows 7.8% in March quarter; FY24 growth at 8.2%
India’s Gross Domestic Product or GDP for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023-24 grew at 7.8%. The full fiscal year real GDP growth provisionally stands at 8.2%.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Forex reserves dip $2 billion

--Total reserves in week-ended May 24 down $2.02 bn at $646.67 bn

--Foreign currency assets in week-ended May 24 down $1.51 bn at $567.50 bn

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Core sector growth accelerates to 6.2% in April; key numbers here

--The eight core sectors include coal, oil, natural gas, power, refinery products, steel, cement, and fertilisers.

--Coal production grew 7.5 percent, while electricity generation rose 9.4 percent. In March, coal production rose 8.7 percent and electricity generation grew 8.6 percent.

--Steel production grew 7.1 percent year-on-year in March, against a 6.4 percent increase a month earlier. Natural gas output registered a growth of 8.6 percent in April, while it rose 6.3 percent in the previous month.

--Cement production rose 0.6 percent in April year-on-year, its growth slowing compared with March's 10.6 percent rise. Crude oil production rose 1.6 percent in April, compared with a 2 percent growth a month earlier.

--All sectors but fertilisers registered growth.

--Fertiliser production registered a fall of 0.8 percent in April, compared with a fall of 1.3 percent in March, while refinery products rose 3.9 percent, against a 1.5 percent rise in the previous month.

Just in: Core sector data
Core sector growth at 6.2% in April versus 6.0% in March

India Q4 GDP Live updates: What analysts are saying

"Sustained momentum in domestic demand is likely to have underpinned the stellar performance of the economy," said Ankita Amajuri, economist at Capital Economics, which expects 7.5% growth in March quarter.

High-frequency indicators data for April including auto sales, housing loans and fuel consumption reflected strong urban demand, though there were concerns about weak rural demand despite forecasts of a normal monsoon this year.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Amitabh Kant predicts India will contribute 30% of global GDP growth between 2035-2040

"By 2027, we will overtake Germany & Japan. Analysts are right in saying that 30 percent of the global GDP growth will come from India between 2035-2040," stated Amitabh Kant, G20 India Sherpa and former chief executive officer of NITI Aayog.

Kant highlighted India's significant strides in economic reforms, which have transformed the nation from being part of the "fragile five" to ranking among the world's top five economies. "Because India has carried a huge amount of structural reforms, it has moved from fragile 5 to top 5 and has grown at about 8.4% in the last 3 quarters," he noted.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: GDP growth likely to be 6.2% in Q4; 7% in FY24, says Ind-RA

India Ratings and Research expects the country's GDP growth rate for the March quarter at 6.2 per cent and around 6.9-7 per cent for the 2023-24 fiscal, its principal economist Sunil Kumar Sinha said.

The Indian economy grew 8.2 per cent in the June quarter, 8.1 per cent in the September quarter and 8.4 per cent in the December quarter of 2023-24.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: SBI Research says growth likely to touch 8% in FY24

India is expected to achieve a GDP growth rate of 7.4% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023-24, according to a report by SBI Research. The report also anticipates an overall GDP growth rate of 8% for the entire fiscal year.

The SBI report highlights that leading indicators indicate a consistent growth trend across both urban and rural areas. "Passenger vehicle sales, airport passenger traffic, GST collection, credit card transactions, petroleum consumption, and toll collection are all indicating improving urban economic momentum," the report stated.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: India likely to report close to 8% economic growth for FY24, says Bloomberg

India Q4 GDP Live Updates: India is expected to report economic growth close to 8 percent for the fiscal year ending in March, providing a significant boost to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government as elections draw to a close. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, official data scheduled for publication on Friday will likely indicate that Asia's third-largest economy grew by 7 percent in the first three months of the year, resulting in a growth rate of 7.9 percent for the financial year through March.

While the quarterly growth figure is anticipated to be lower than the preceding quarter's remarkable 8.4 percent expansion, which was driven by one-off factors, it is still expected to surpass the government's prediction of 5.9 percent.

India Q4 GDP Live updates: Goldman Sachs revises growth forecast upwards

The US-based Goldman Sachs revised its GDP forecast for India by 10 basis points to 6.7 percent expecting a sustained growth momentum with additional fiscal space on account of a bumper dividend transfer from the central bank.

GS expects the Reserve Bank of India to go for a rate cut in the October-December quarter as it forecast an uptick in core goods inflation due to a rise in manufacturing costs.

“Going forward, we expect investment growth momentum to sustain with extra fiscal space for infrastructure spending given a higher than expected dividend transfer by the RBI. As a result, we recently revised our growth forecasts for 2024 slightly higher by 10 bps to 6.7 percent,” Andrew Tilton, head of emerging markets economic research at Goldman Sachs said in a note co-authored with Santanu Sengupta and Arjun Varma.

India Q4 GDP Live: GDP growth for Q4FY24 projected at 6.1-6.7%, lower than the plus-8% of previous three quarters

India's GDP in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 is anticipated to have grown between 6.1% and 6.7%, a decline from the over 8% growth rate observed in the previous three quarters, PTI reported

India's GDP grew 8.4 percent in the December quarter, the highest in six quarters. Last time India's economy grew at a faster clip was in the first quarter of 2022-23, when it clocked a growth of 13.1 percent, which was later revised down to 12.8 percent.

Read more here.

India Q4 GDP Live: Retail inflation marginally eases to 4.83% in April, but food prices continue to rise

India's headline retail inflation stayed largely unchanged at 4.83 percent in April, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on May 13.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in March was at a 10-month low of 4.85 percent.

Full report here.

India Q4 GDP Live: S&P Global will likely raise India's rating within 2 years, notes Citi

Citi expects S&P Global Ratings to upgrade India's sovereign rating by late 2026, driven by the ratings agency's confidence in the nation's macroeconomic drivers and the flow of economic and political cycles.

S&P recently revised India's sovereign rating outlook to 'positive' from 'stable,' citing the country's robust economic fundamentals. However, it maintained the rating itself at 'BBB-'.

"In the past, S&P had a positive outlook on India in mid-2004 and mid-2006. In both instances, an actual rating upgrade happened within six months," noted Citi economists in a statement.

India Q4 GDP Live: Will the economy show robust growth? What RBI says

Real GDP growth is robust on the back of solid investment demand, which is supported by healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, the government’s focus on capital expenditure and prudent monetary, regulatory and fiscal policies, the RBI said in its annual report.

RBI retained the GDP growth projection at 7 per cent for 2024-25 fiscal on the back of expectations of a normal monsoon, moderating inflationary pressures, and sustained momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors. In its April monetary policy, RBI said that the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7 percent with Q1 at 7.1 percent; Q2 at 6.9 percent; Q3 at 7 percent; and Q4 at 7 percent.

India Q4 GDP Live: Former RBI guv Raghuram Rajan on India's growth

Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has said India's economy needs to grow by around 9%-10% annually for next couple of decades to create good jobs for millions of educated young people and achieve the target of becoming a developed country by 2047.

India is among the world's fastest-growing economies but growth is below what is needed to create jobs in the economy, some economists say.

India Q4 GDP Live: S&P on economic growth prediction

Recently, S&P Global Ratings raised its sovereign rating outlook for India to "positive" from "stable", adding that regardless of the outcome of national elections it expected broad continuity in economic reforms and fiscal policies.

It expects the Indian economy to grow at 6.8% in the current fiscal year starting April, and close to 7% annually over the next three years.

India Q4 GDP Live: GDP growth in Q3 accelerated to 8.4%, beating estimates

In October-December quarter, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed robust growth, accelerating to 8.4 percent as against a survey that had pegged the growth to slow down to a three-quarter low of 6.5 percent.

At 8.4 percent in Q3, the latest quarterly GDP growth rate was the highest in six quarters. Last time India's economy grew at a faster rate was in the first quarter of 2022-23, when it grew by 13.1 percent, now revised down to 12.8 percent.

India Q4 GDP Live: Economy seen growing at slower pace at 6.7% in March quarter

India's economy is expected to have grown at a slower pace in the January-March quarter than the previous three months, dampened by a moderation in manufacturing and urban spending, but economists see economic momentum remaining strong in Asia's third-largest economy.

The median forecast from a survey of 54 economists by news agency Reuters put GDP growth at 6.7% year-on-year for the three months, the fourth quarter of India's 2023/24 fiscal year, lower than the higher- than-expected 8.4% expansion in the previous quarter.

India Q4 GDP Live: RBI projects India's economy to grow at 7%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its annual report, projected Indian economy to grow at 7 percent in the current financial year. The central bank said that the Indian economy expanded at a robust pace in 2023-24, with real GDP growth accelerating to 7.6 percent from 7 percent in the previous year – the third successive year of 7 percent or above growth.

Real GDP growth is robust on the back of solid investment demand, which is supported by healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, the government’s focus on capital expenditure and prudent monetary, regulatory and fiscal policies, the report added.

Read more here

India Q4 GDP Live updates: When will the GDP numbers be released?

--India's GDP numbers for the quarter ended March 2024 and for the full year 2023-2024 will be released on May 31 at 5:30 pm. Catch all LIVE updates here.