India has posted a GDP growth of 6.1 percent in the January-March period as against 4.4 percent in the preceding quarter. For the entire FY23, the growth rate came in at 7.2 percent, which is higher than the estimates of 7 percent, but slower as compared to 9.1 percent clocked in FY22.
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India GDP LIVE | FY23 growth shows economy resilient amid global challenges, says PM Modi
"The 2022-23 GDP growth figures underscore the resilience of the Indian economy amidst global challenges. This robust performance along with overall optimism and compelling macro-economic indicators, exemplify the promising trajectory of our economy and the tenacity of our people," Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted.
India GDP LIVE | India's Q4 growth 'amongst strongest lift for the quarter in Asia', says Singapore-based DBS Bank's senior economist
"India's January-March 2023 GDP growth posted a sharp upside surprise, amongst the strongest lift for the quarter in Asia and displaying resilience in the face of negative terms of trade shock as well as a difficult global geopolitical backdrop last year. There was broad-based lift amongst the segments, especially stronger outturns by farm and services output. On the expenditure end, capital formation was one of the key support pillars, while private consumption grew at a more moderate pace. Double-digit nominal GDP growth of 16% was supportive of deficit and debt-to-GDP ratios. A strong GDP beat will provide the central bank headroom to extend its pause in June," saidRadhika Rao, senior economist, DBS Bank, Singapore.
India GDP LIVE | Economy holding up better than expected, says Capital Economics' Shilan Shah
“On balance, it seems that the economy has been holding up better than we had been expecting. Looking ahead, we expect a slowdown in growth in q/q terms over the coming few quarters. After all, lending rates are still drifting upwards, fiscal policy will turn slightly less supportive, and the external backdrop is weak. Even so, the strength at the start of the year means we now expect the economy to grow by 6.3% in 2023, from 6.0% previously," saidShilan Shah, Deputy Chief EM Economist, Capital Economics.
India GDP LIVE | Current growth momentum may come under pressure going forward, says EEPC India chief
While India's growth numbers for the January-March period, as well as the entire FY23 show that the country remains a bright spot in the world economy, the recessionary trends in some of the advanced economies, however, suggest that the current growth momentum "could come under pressure going forward",EEPC India Chairman Arun Kumar Garodia said.
"We have already seen India's goods exports slowing down. As a result of subdued demand from major markets, engineering goods exports have been in the negative zone for some months. Although we remain optimistic it will be early to expect a strong rebound in demand from these markets. We hope that robust domestic demand would support the engineering sector by negating some of the adverse effects of global slowdown," Garodia added.
India GDP LIVE | 'Some moderation in growth expected in FY24', says India Ratings & Research's Soumyajit Niyogi,
“Some moderation in growth is expected in FY24 given the uncertainty of the monsoon and as the global economy is facing challenges. However, it may not be severe. Our expectation is around 6 percent real GDP growth for FY24. Demand, financing conditions and external demand might not be so supportive,"said Soumyajit Niyogi, Director, Core Analytical Group at India Ratings & Research.
India GDP LIVE | Risks to growth forecast of 6.5% for FY24 'now more evenly balanced': CEA
"We are now prepared to say that risks to our GDP growth forecast of 6.5 percent for 2023-24 are now more evenly balanced than a few months ago when downside risks to the forecast were greater," CEA Nageswaran told reporters.
India GDP LIVE | On track to achieve fiscal deficit target of 5.9% in FY24: CEA
"India is on track to achieve the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 percent of GDP in 2023-24," Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said. The fiscal deficit target of 6.4 percent of the GDP was successfully met in FY23, as per the data released today.
India GDP LIVE | CPI inflation may return to RBI's target of 4% in FY24: CEA
"There is a very high chance CPI inflation will return to RBI’s medium-term target of 4 percent in 2023-24," Chief Economic AdviserV Anantha Nageswaran said, while briefing the press. The inflation rate had soared up in the post-pandemic period and following the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine war, but has now relatively cooled off. The retail inflation rate had came in at 4.7 percent, an 18-month-low, in April.
India GDP LIVE | Seeing strong recovery in rural demand, says CEA
"We are seeing indications of strong recovery in rural demand," the chief economic adviser said, while addressing the press following the release of the GDP data. The agricultural sector, which forms the backbone of the rural economy, grew at 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter of FY23.
India GDP LIVE | Capacity utilisation already crossed 75% in several sectors: CEA
The capacity utilisation has already crossed 75 percent in several sectors, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said, while commenting on the GDP data for FY23.
The CEA, while briefing the reporters, also pointed out that total employment in the hotel industry was 40 million before the pandemic. This fell to 29 million during the pandemic but has now increased to 45 million.
India GDP LIVE | Private consumption as percentage of GDP at 16-year high: CEA
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran told reporters that private consumption as a percentage of the gross domestic productwas at a 16-year high in 2022-23. The double-digit growth in tractor sales bodes well for the agriculture sector, he added.
India GDP LIVE | Upward revision to 7.2% growth rate for FY23 possible in revised estimates, says CEA Nageswaran
"I think I can stick my neck out and say that when the revised numbers for FY23 are released next year, there might be an upward revision to the 7.2 percent GDP growth figure,"Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said, while briefing the reporters on the GDP data released by the NSO today.
India GDP LIVE | Q4 data shows Indian economy 'moved on a faster clip', says ASSOCHAM Secretary General
"GDP data for 2022-23 is a clear sign that the Indian economy has moved on a faster clip from the 4th quarter of FY23 in key sectors like manufacturing, construction and financial services.Going forward, we expect the momentum to continue given softening of raw material prices including crude oil and peaking of interest rates,"ASSOCHAM Secretary GeneralDeepak Soodsaid.
From two consecutive quarters (minus 3.8 per cent in Q2 and minus 1.4 per cent in Q3) , manufacturing showed a smart turnaround with a 4.5 per cent growth in the last quarter of FY23, Sood pointed.
"This gives us confidence that manufacturing would continue to regain traction. This bodes very well for the economy, particularly in creation of new jobs," he added.
The ASSOCHAM also noted signs of investment picking up, as visible in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation, reviving its share in the GDP to 35.3 per cent in the last quarter from 31.7 per cent in Q3, Sood further said.
India GDP LIVE | ICRA projects FY24 growth at 6%
"ICRA projects growth of real GDP in FY2024 at 6.0%, with a downside risk of up to 50 bps in the event that an El Nino affects the monsoon rains,"Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head, research ICRA,said.
At the same time, frontloaded capital expenditureby the Government of India and the states, and a rapid execution of infrastructureprojects could provide an "upside to our GDP estimates for the fiscal", she said, adding that"we foresee the nominal GDP growth at 10.0% for FY2024".
"Inflation is expected to moderate in FY2024 relative to FY2023 which is a positive for household budgets and consumption. However, the rise in home loan EMIs and its impact on the budgets of urban households and their consumption demand, contraction in exports and their impact on employment, and the impact of a potential El Nino on crops, food prices and farm incomes remains to be seen," Nayar further noted.
India GDP LIVE | ICRA chief economist on Q4 growth numbers
"The positive surprise in the GVA growth for Q4 FY2023 relative to our forecast was largely driven by the industrial sector. Manufacturing growth rebounded to a YoY growth of 4.5% in Q4 FY2023 after having contracted in each of the last two quarter, amid an uptick in the YoY growth in manufacturing volumes as well as an improvement in margins during the quarter, partly on account of a sustained moderation in input costs.Growth in the construction segment rose to a robust 10.4% in Q4 FY2023 from 8.3% in Q3 FY2023, surpassing the performance of the other sub-sectors of the GVA," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head - Research and Outreach, ICRA.
India GDP LIVE | 'GDP data validates recent growth optimism for India'
"The GDP data does validate the recent growth optimism for India, despite global headwinds. This is not to say that the growth outlook is without risks - particularly in regards to the monsoon progress and recession risks globally. We expect GDP growth at 5.8%-6% for FY24 with some upside to this forecast now emerging," HDFC Bank Principal Economist Sakshi Gupta said.
India GDP LIVE | Growth numbers show resilience of Indian economy despite global slowdown: Kotak Mahindra Bank chief economist
"The sharp upside to the GDP growth suggest the resilience of the Indian economy despite the global slowdown. However, we remain watchful on the sustainability of the strength especially when much of the non-agricultural growth has been led by public investment while consumption remain tepid," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank.
India GDP LIVE | Growth numbers surpassing estimates is not surprising, says Hedonova CIO
"The GDP figures surpassing expectations doesn't surprise me. The Rupee has shown relative weakness against the dollar over the past year, while there's been a significant upsurge in export volumes. Moreover, we have been able to decrease our oil import expenses due to our advantageous ties with Russia. This scenario has resulted in a decrease in the balance of payments account, thus contributing to a boost in GDP," saidSuman Bannerjee, CIO, Hedonova, a US-based hedge fund.
India GDP LIVE | Nominal GDP at current prices grew at 16.1% in FY23: Statistics Ministry
"Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹272.41 lakh crore, as against ₹234.71 lakh crore in 2021-22, showing a growth rate of 16.1 percent," the statistics ministry said.
India GDP LIVE | Real GDP attains level of Rs 160 lakh crore: Statistics Ministry
"Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of ₹160.06 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2021-22 of ₹149.26 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.2 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2021-22," the statistics ministry said in a release.
India GDP LIVE: Here's the sector-wise growth rate clocked in Q4FY23
- Agricultural sector grew at 5.5percent.
- Mining sector recorded a growth of 4.3 percent.
- Construction sector at10.4 percent.
- Electricity at 6.9 percent.
- Manufacturing at 4.5 percent.
- Financial sector at 7.1 percent.
- Trade & Hotels at 9.1 percent.
India GDP LIVE: Growth rate beats estimates
India has posteda GDP growth of 6.1 percentin the January-March period as against4.4 percentin the preceding quarter. The growth rate in Q4 has beaten estimates, as the RBI had earlier projected a growth of 5.1 percent during the quarter.
The growth rate of 7.2 percent for the entire FY23 is also higher than the central bank's estimate of 7 percent. However, the pace of growth was slower as compared to 9.1 percent recorded in FY22.
Just In | India's GDP grows at 7.2% in FY23, 6.1% in Q4: Official data
The country's gross domestic product or GDP grew by 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23, as per the official data shared by the National Statistical Office. For the entire FY23, the growth rate came in at 7.2 percent.
India Q4 GDP LIVE:
A growth rate of 5.1 percent in January-March period, as projected earlier by the RBI, would mean the statistics ministry's first provisional estimate of the full year's GDP would match its second advance estimate of 7 percent.
India Q4 GDP LIVE: NSO to release January-March GDP growth data at 5:30 pm
The National Statistical Office (NSO) is scheduled to declare the gross domestic product growth rate for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23, along with the growth rate clocked during the entire FY23, at 5:30 pm. Stay tuned here for the latest updates.
Core industries growth edges down to 3.5% in April
Ahead of the January-March GDP growth numbers, the data on eight core sectors' growth was released. The core sectors grew at 3.5 percent in April 2023, which is slightly lower as against 3.6 percent in the preceding month.
India Q4 GDP LIVE: Consumption seen recovering
On the expenditure side, private final consumption expenditure is seen recovering after its collapse in October-December when it posted an increase of a mere 2.1 percent in the key festival period, down from 8.8 percent growth in July-September.
"Urban sector continues to lead the recovery with FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) urban sales volume rising 5.3 percent in Q4FY23," Gaura Sen Gupta, India economist at IDFC First Bank, said.
According to QuantEco Research, India'surban consumption ended 2022-23 at a three-and-a-half-year high, with rural consumption also showing signs of consolidating.
India Q4 GDP LIVE: Agriculture sector seen growing at 3-3.5%, industry growth likely to be subdued
The agriculture sector is seen growing by 3-3.5 percent, say experts, whereas, theindustry growth is expected to have been more subdued, but likely picked up from the last quarter of 2022. Rahul Bajoria, Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics Research at Barclays, expects the manufacturing sector to have expanded by 1.5 percent in January-Marchafter contracting by 1.1 percent in October-Decemberand 3.6 percent in July-September.
India Q4 GDP LIVE: Services sector likely to be the key driver of growth
The services sector is likely to have been the key driver of growth in January-March, with S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) averaging 58.1 in the quarter, against 56.8 in October-December, and 53.6 in January-March 2022.
Further, India's net services exports stood at $41 billion in January-March 2023 – up 6.1 percent from the previous quarter and a massive 45.1 percent higher than in January-March 2022.
India Q4 GDP LIVE: What RBI Governor said on Q4 GDP growth
"All economic indicators in Q4 of last financial year (January-March), they show that economic activity sustained momentum. In fact, all the high-frequency indicators, about 70 of them which we monitor at the Reserve Bank of India, almost in all of thesehigh-frequency indicators the momentum was maintained in Q4," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on May 24.The central bank has estimated the GDP to have grown by 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter, and by 7 percent in the entire FY23.
April 2023 fiscal deficit numbers released
The Centre's fiscal deficit during the month of April 2023, which is the first month of the current fiscal, came in at Rs 1.34 lakh crore. This is 7.5 percent of the fiscal deficit target set for FY24.
Just In: Govt meets FY23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4% of GDP
The Centre has met the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 percent of the GDP for FY23, as per the official data that was disclosed shortly before the release of the Q4 growth numbers. The fiscal deficit for the entire year came in at Rs 17.33 lakh crore, beating therevised target by Rs 22,188 crore.
The FY23 capital expenditure exceededgovernment'srevised target of Rs 7.28 lakh croreby Rs 8,551 crore, the data showed.
India Q4 GDP LIVE: What poll suggests?
As per 15 economists who shared their views in a Moneycontrol poll, the country's gross domestic product is expected to have grown by 5.1 percent in Q4FY23. The growth rate is higher as compared to 4.1percent clocked in the year-ago period, and 4.4 percent recorded in the December 2022 quarter.
For the full year ended March 2023, economistssee a GDP growth of 7 percent.
Highlights of India's FY23 GDP performance so far
- Q1: The country's gross domestic product in the April-June 2022 period had grown by 13.5 percent, largely due to a low-base effect.
- Q2: In the second quarter of the July-September period, the GDP grew at 6.3 percent.
- Q3: The growth rate declined to 4.4 percent in the third quarter or the October-December period.
India Q4 GDP LIVE:
While the growth rate for the fourth quarter of FY23 will be released at 5:30 pm, Chief Economic AdvisorV Anantha Nageswaran is expected to brief the media on the GDP data at 6:30 pm.
Data on fiscal deficit, core sector growth to be released ahead of Q4 GDP growth rate
The data on the fiscal deficit clocked in FY23 and in April 2023 -- the first month of FY24 -- is due to be released anytime from now. The data on the core sector growth for the month of April is expected to be out at 5 pm, shortly before the release of Q4 GDP growth numbers.
India Q4 GDP LIVE:
The rate of economic growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23, along with other details related to the gross domestic product (GDP) growth clocked in the January-March period, will be shared by the National Statistics Office (NSO) at 5:30 pm today. Stay tuned here for the all updates.
