The first estimate of the impact of El Niño on India’s monsoon is expected by April and much will depend on its timing. India should, however, be ready with a contingency plan to minimise the threat to its farm sector, experts suggested.
El Niño, which occurs every three to six years, is a phenomenon of abnormal heating up of the ocean surface that trigger a change in wind patterns and, in turn, impact weather across the world. The US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has indicated the possibility of El Niño conditions developing this year.
“There is a good possibility for formation of El Niño during monsoon this year. Not only El Niño but Indian Ocean Dipole and how many other systems will form will determine the rainfall," former India Meteorological Department scientist DS Pai told Moneycontrol.
"It's been three years since the last La Niña. Statistically, if El Niño is followed by La Niña, there is more possibility of less rainfall thereafter. There is a higher chance of below-normal rainfall this year. The El Niño impact can happen in the latter part of the monsoon season in August-September.” Pai is currently the director of Institute of Climate Change Studies.
La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño. In India, the last El Niño event of 2018 coincided with below-normal rainfall.
“If we get good rainfall in the beginning, we can manage with less rainfall in the latter part. We can have stored water in the first two months. But if the monsoon gets disturbed initially and persists in the second half, then things may get difficult. However, there is uncertainty on the impact of El Niño on monsoon and agriculture. First predictions will come around April,” Pai said.
There are three dimensions of rainfall - timing, total quantity and distribution. Even less rainfall may be more beneficial if its distribution is better.
“We don’t know yet in what way El Niño will impact. There may not be any adverse effect if there is less rainfall with good distribution. Cannot say El Niño is all bad news. We should have some contingency plan at district level with which we should be ready. The arrival of rainfall, if it gets delayed, then we need seeds of late sowing variety, or move from one crop to another. The plan is already in place,” NITI Aayog member Ramesh Chand told Moneycontrol.
Chand believes that the Indian agriculture is quite resilient now to such shocks and the share of the crop which is affected by rainfall is declining steadily. “The share of livestock and fishery is increasing in the agriculture sector. The matter of concern is that, like last year, if there is a sudden heat wave in March-end or April, then the wheat crop will be affected,” he said.
As far as the impact on rural economy is concerned, the NITI Aayog member said that even during Covid there was no effect on agricultural growth. Rural economy was affected much less than the urban economy.
Policymakers, however, should be alert and have safeguards against too much dependance on rainfall to minimise the El Niño impact.
Agriculture expert Vijay Sardana feels that the government’s Mission Amrit Sarovar of development of 75 ponds in each district will help reduce our dependance on rainfall.
“If water reservoirs’ situation is normal, then we can manage rainfall shortage in some areas. In other areas there will be a challenge. Price realisation in rural areas will be less if farm yield is less. However, at what stage the rainfall is impacted due to El Niño will be crucial. If El Niño forecasts emerge, the government should not push for exports in the agriculture sector before understanding local demands,” Sardana told Moneycontrol.
The government should be vigilant, initiate water conservation and management, and closely watch the monsoon while the maintenance of water bodies should be ready now, he said.
India has witnessed four good monsoons in succession. The probability of a fifth normal monsoon this year looks challenging because of El Niño. But the country seems to be better prepared and its agriculture more resilient to deal with the impact.
However, El Niño conditions remain a key monitorable to gauge its timing and precise influence on rainfall deficit and farm productivity.
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