Despite the RBI estimating India’s GDP growth at 7.2 percent GDP growth in FY25 and other international agencies also revising their projection upwards, the Economic Survey has projected a conservative estimate of 6.5-7 percent in the current fiscal. With the global environment posing several challenges and monsoon not progressing the way predicted, the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said that the Economic Survey was mindful of these risks and thus projects a ''doable'' growth estimate.
''We are not pessimistic, we are optimistic about growth. But we are mindful of challenges, about the way the monsoon has progressed. Given that we feel 7 percent is doable, but yet we want to be not necessarily cautious but prudent'' Nageswaran said at a press conference after the tabling of the Economic Survey in the Parliament by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
The Indian Meteorological Department had forecast that India is set to receive above-normal monsoon rains this year. The monsoon is, however, not progressing as the IMD predicted before the monsoon season began, the CEA said.
''We were more confident of 7 percent GDP growth when we wrote the interim economic survey in January. Since then the global environment has become even more polarised. We would rather be pleasantly surprised than be forced to face disappointment which is why we are projecting a GDP growth rate of 6.5-7 percent,'' he added.
The growth estimated by the Survey, released a day before Sitharaman presents the Budget for the ongoing financial year, is in line with the International Monetary Fund’s estimate of 7 percent.
One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
''The way the monsoon has been shaping up, the global geopolitical environment and financial markets risks rising in the developed world and its spillover impact on India. We will get where we want to get better if we are aware of the challenges we face, that’s the message of the Economic Survey,'' he said.
The Survey, supervised by the chief economic adviser gives a detailed account of the state of the economy, prospects, and policy challenges.
The Economic Survey noted that in view of the geopolitical challenges, heavy lifting has to be done on the domestic front to sustain this recovery.
The way the global factors are unfolding we do not have the luxury to choose a single approach. No economic approach for growth can be excluded, instead, all the factors combined including manufacturing, he said.
''We need all hands on the table, all approaches, whether from the government, private or social sector. We are facing a very challenging global environment, along with climate change, so we need to make sure we pursue all possible approaches without any doctrinal orientation or ideological orientation. Pragmatism has to be the policy mantra,'' he added.
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