The national weatherman on Monday said India will receive "deficient" monsoon in its second half season prediction. GP Sharma of Skymet says August will receive rainfall that is 92 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
While Maharashtra, parts of Central India will receive normal rainfall due to low pressure system forming, it has not helped allay any fears of an El Nino phenomenon.
El Nino is an oceanic phenomenon that leads to warm phase or warm water temperatures around the Pacific coast of South America. The phenomenon is said to disrupt rainfall patterns globally and also lead to parching or parts of Asia and Australia. It also results in trigger storms and floods in other regions.
IMD director DS Pai says the phenomenon is strengthening in the coming days and its impact will be seen in the second half of the season.
Below is the verbatim transcript of DS Pai and GP Sharma’s interview with Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.
Latha: If you can just give us what you are expecting in August and September, the overall average is going to be 88?
Pai: Actually yesterday, we released the forecast for the second half. As per our report, second half rainfall, that is during August and September, it is likely to be 84 percent of the long-term average.
Latha: What is your take on the same thing? Are you expecting, are you still sticking to your 102 percent?
Sharma: We have revised the monsoon figures. That was about 4-5 days back and we have expected now the monsoon season rainfall at, we have put it as 98 percent, also subject to seeing what the performance of August comes of the week and if required, we have a fresh look that is sometimes in the third week of August as well. But as of now, we have said that it should be about 98 percent of the LPA which is a normal thing and we have also given our monthly figures for the month of August as well as September.
Latha: And how much is that?
Sharma: In the beginning itself, April itself, we put June as a good month and even July also fairly okay. August, September, we had given it in the beginning itself, less than the normal, that is less than the 100 percent average as such. Earlier, we had given about 99 percent for August, but we have downgraded that August to 92 percent of the LPA and September, we still have hopes, we still put it at 110 percent or so. But then, we will have fresh look, as I said earlier, at around third week or so, third or fourth week of August.
Sonia: So, downgraded the August forecast to 92 percent of LPA. How much has the El Nino strengthened and how high is the possibility of scaling down your overall forecast of 88 percent because of the strengthening of El Nino?
Pai: There is almost 100 percent sure that El Nino is [Audio not clear] during the remaining part of the monsoon season and also during the post monsoon and also we are expecting very high probability for El Nino to strengthen further. So, we are expecting El Nino to impact monsoon.
Latha: Can you give us the fortnight-wise performance? How is the first half of August to perform, second half, first half of September and the second half? And usually how does that affect the crop cycle?
Pai: Generally, August in the middle of harvest, it is most prone for breaks in the monsoon. So, we are expecting again, this year also, that middle it will tend to continue, there can be a dry spell.
Latha: Does that affect crops because the sowing is over?
Pai: We have taken already some collective factor and, they can still manage. The next 5-6 days, he rainfall activity is likely to be in central India because of this low pressure system which is moving. Now over the Maharashtra, we are expecting good rainfall today over Maharashtra and tomorrow also. And for other regions, that will be subdued. And by August 10, we are expecting that to move to a break type of situation.
Sonia: The crops sowing had been impacted in a lot of key states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, North Karnataka, etc. but given what we have seen in the months of July in terms of rainfall, have we seen any recovery at all?
Sharma: July, as e know, that last week of July was very good as far as the crops are concerned over most parts of the country. The deficit area, yes, they were almost rain-parched area. So that is parts of Maharashtra and I will say, Rayalaseema which is part of Andhra Pradesh and parts of Northern Karnataka. These are the three areas which are desperately needing some rains or so and as the Mr Pai has brought out, we can expect good showers over Maharashtra, which is already having good rains now and Marathwada also having, and then next 48 hours or so, we can expect good rains over these parts which were badly needing it, including Madhya Maharashtra. Also the good news is Rayalaseema, which was a turmeric belt and other ones, otherwise also, that was very badly needing some rains and parts of Rayalaseema will be getting good rains not. At least it will be a breather, it will be a relief for these pockets including for Karnataka which will have rains now in the next about two days or so.
That is good news, so sowing will not get impacted as it has done quite well and for the crops also I will put it, it is not a worst case scenario now. Now the recovery could take place now with this belt which is because of the low pressure over Maharashtra adjoining area.
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