August WPI likely at 5.8%: CNBC-TV18 Poll

A CNBC-TV18 Poll is expecting the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for August to come at 5.8 percent. This data is likely to be flat month-on-month as the July WPI came in at 5.79.

However, the macro data is likely to be range bound between 5.5 and 6.1 percent.  The reason for this wide range is the impact of fuel inflation. Economists are divided on how exactly the fuel inflation as well as the rupee depreciation could impact WPI inflation in August. Also read: 5-6% GDP may be new normal for India: Amansa Capital

A high base effect too is adding its weight to the elevated WPI number as in the same month, last year the WPI came in at 8 percent. Hence, there is no respite WPI inflation despite the fact that it might come in flat month-on-month.
Primary inflation could see some amount of respite because of cooling down of vegetable prices. There is no estimates for core inflation but core inflation has been spiking up on a month-on-month basis in the previous month. So, it could either be flat to a little higher in this month.
Last month, the WPI came in at four month high and this will be one of the crucial indicators on how the September 20 policy could also pan out.
To put things into perspective, CPI came in a bit better than expectations but it was still elevated above 9 percent mark.