Eco to grow by 8.6% in 2010-11; inflation a concern: CSO

Chief Statistician TCA Anant has said that had the GDP estimates been calculated on the 7.4% (before it was revised to 8% resulting in a higher base) "you would find out that the growth rate would have been over 9% for 2010-11."

"There is a likely possibility that there would be further downward revision of the overall GDP for 2010-11," Samiran Chakrabarty, chief economist, Standard Chartered said. Commenting on the growth estimates, FICCI secretary general Amit Mitra the numbers are "quite encouraging". "The concern is that manufacturing growth projections are same as the growth rate of last year, though there has been some improvement in services," he added. The estimates for manufacturing sector expansion at 8.8% this fiscal is same as that it was in 2009-10. Abheek Barua, Chief Economist with HDFC Bank said the GDP estimates show there is a deceleration in the industry in the second half of the fiscal. "This (deceleration) could intensify in the next fiscal year," he said. The CSO data further said the net national income (NNI) at factor cost (2004-05) is likely to be Rs 42,69,994 crore during the current fiscal, as against the previous year''s quick estimate of Rs 39,46,540 crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 8.2% during 2010-11 in comparison to the growth rate of 7.5% in the year ago period. The per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2010-11 is likely to attain a level of Rs 36,003 as compared to the quick estimates for the previous year of Rs 33,731. The global financial crisis pulled down the growth of the Indian economy to 6.8% in the 2008-09 fiscal from over 9% in the preceding three years. The advance GDP estimates are released before the end of a financial year to enable the government to formulate various estimates for inclusion in the Budget.