Diversified FMCG-to-cigarettes conglomerate ITC will report its earnings for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2025 on May 22, 2025. The FMCG player is likely to report the highest revenue among all its listed peers.
According to a Moneycontrol poll of nine brokerages, ITC is likely to report revenue of Rs 17,371 crore, rising 4.8 percent year-on-year compared to Rs 16,579 crore in the January to March quarter of FY24.
However, it should be noted that the numbers are not strictly comparable. The March 2024 figures include the ITC Hotels numbers, which has now been spun-off into a separate entity. On a comparable basis, sales growth for the quarter should be between 6.5 to 8 percent, according to brokerages.
Net profit is likely to come in at Rs 4,906 crore in Q4FY25 as against Rs 5,022 crore in the year-ago period, a degrowth of 2.3 percent.
Earnings estimates of analysts polled by Moneycontrol are in a diverse range. The most optimistic estimate sees ITC’s net profit rising two percent year-on-year, while the most negative projection sees a fall of 7.6 percent in net profit for the quarter.
What factors are impacting the earnings?
Cigarette volumes: For the quarter ended March, cigarette volumes are likely to rise in the range of 2 to 6.5 percent, according to most brokerages. ITC is also seeing fierce competition from peers in this sector. "The cigarette business is expected to show stable volumes and pricing, with the portfolio continuing to grow, aided by improvements in the product mix," said Motilal Oswal.
FMCG under pressure: The FMCG business is likely to see weak sales and margins in Q4FY25. Teh segment's EBITDA margins are likely to decrease sharply due to RM inflation in palm oil and wheat.
Segments performance: The paper segment remained weak as an influx of cheap Chinese paper has prompted regional players to offer more discounts to customers. The FMCG business continues to see pressure in urban demand. The agriculture segment performed well during the quarter, added Motilal Oswal.
Margins: EBITDA margin to contract due to the inflationary pressure related to the RM index
of the cigarette and FMCG business and adverse business mix, i.e., higher salience from the agriculture segment.
What to look out for in the quarterly show?
Analysts will closely monitor demand in metro areas compared to the rural outlook, along with the competitive intensity.
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