Buy Triveni Turbine; target of Rs 620: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Triveni Turbine

TRIV’s 1QFY26 performance was hit by deferred dispatches and order execution, as geopolitical tensions led to inspection delays from international customers. Revenue stood at INR3.7b (-20% YoY). Domestic/export sales declined 24%/15% to INR1.9b/INR1.8b. Exports as a % of sales increased to 49% in 1QFY26 compared to 47% in 1QFY25. The EBITDA at INR736m declined 23% YoY, while the EBITDA margin contracted 80bp YoY to 19.8% vs. our estimate of 20.3%. Its PAT at INR644m declined 20% YoY. Order inflows declined 16% YoY to INR5.4b due to lower export demand across products and aftermarkets. Order booking was also impacted by geopolitical tensions, which delayed advance collections. The total order book stood at INR20.7b as of 30th Jun’25 (+20% YoY).

Outlook

We revise our TP to INR620 (from INR700) based on 40x Sep’27E EPS. Our revised target multiple of 40x (vs. 42x earlier) takes into account lower growth assumptions than earlier estimates.