Pune-headquartered Bajaj Auto Limited is set to release its earnings report for the first fiscal quarter of FY26 on August 6. Analysts expect a marginal pickup in revenue amid tepid domestic sales. Furthermore, margins are expected to be lower during the quarter.
According to a Moneycontrol poll of eight brokerage firms, the Dominar 400 maker is anticipated to record a 3.2 percent year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching Rs 12,314 crore. Net profit is projected to rise a marginal 1.4 percent to Rs 2,019 crore from Rs 1,988 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.
Earnings estimates from analysts polled by Moneycontrol are in a narrow range, indicating that any positive or negative surprises could trigger a sharp reaction in the stock price.
What factors will affect Bajaj Auto's earnings?
Weak Domestic Sales: The company witnessed a less than 1 percent increase in volume growth as the company sold 11.11 lakh units during the quarter, higher by 11.02 lakh units sold in the same quarter of the previous year.
EBITDA Contraction: The company's margins are expected to come under slight pressure, weighed down by rising commodity costs, adverse movement in forex-linked revenue, and the continued impact of OBD-2 emission norm-related expenses. "EBITDA margin will decline post being stable last year, on the back of higher raw material costs and a spike in ocean freight rates," HDFC Securities said in a preview note.
Decent Mix to Help: A better product mix, driven by higher exports, along with ongoing cost control efforts, is expected to support the company’s performance. A slight improvement in average selling prices, aided by increased two-wheeler and commercial vehicle export volumes, should also provide some cushion.
What look out for in the quarterly show?
Key points to watch for in the FY26 outlook include guidance on domestic and export volume expectations for the two-wheeler segment, as well as the company’s ambitions and roadmap for the electric vehicle (EV) space. Management commentary on replacement demand trends across two- and three-wheelers, the scale-up of electric three-wheelers, and the impact of EVs on segment margins will be closely tracked. Further clarity is awaited on the rural vs. urban demand outlook, volume market share targets, and margin expectations for FY26.
Shares of the company were trading at Rs 8,187, higher by 2 percent from the last close on the NSE. Bajaj Auto shares are down 7 percent since the beginning of the year.
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