The growth in global oil production capacity is expected to outpace the rise in demand up until 2030, according to the latest oil report by the International Energy Association, released on June 17.
Barring any major disruption to the oil market, the world is likely to be well-supplied over the next five years, Fatih Birol said. The report added that the global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.5 mbpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching a plateau around 105.5 mbpd by the end of the decade.
IEA added that given the EV sales surge and structure changes in China's economy, Beijing's oil demand is slated to reach a peak in 2027.
This comes as the past decade saw oil market dynamics defined by a growth in US oil supply along with a simultaneously rise in Chinese oil demand. "From 2015 to 2024, the United States accounted for 90% of the increase in global supply, with the shale boom lifting US oil production by more than 8 mbpd to over 20 mbpd. At the same time, Chinese oil demand rose by nearly 6 mb/d, accounting for 60% of the global increase in oil use," the report added.
Going forward, the picture from now till 2030 looks different, as a surge in EV sales, use of liquified natural gas (LNG) for commercial vehicles, and a growing high-speed rail network along with structural shifts in Chinese economy could resuly in oil demand peaking this decade. The pace of expansion of US oil production may also slow down, as companies cut down on investments, still, it is expected to stay as the largest contributor to non-OPEC+ growth.
Despite the expected plateauing of Chinese demand, the IEA has forecast a 'robust' oil demand growth of 4.2 mbpd over 2024-30, even as demand in advanced economies contract. India will be significant driver of this demand growth, said IEA.
"Asian markets dominate growth, with India’s expected 1 mbpd increase the largest of any single country by far, though rising oil use in Southeast Asian economies is also significant," the report said. An increased oil output from the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina is set to 'more than cover' the growth in global oil demand in the coming years, Fatih Birol added, while posting the report, underscoring the 'Americas Quintet' as driving capacity growth outside OPEC+.
"...oil prices have since rebounded after an exchange of air strikes between Israel and Iran started on 13 June, 2025. With geopolitical and economic uncertainties affecting oil producers and consumers alike, oil supply security remains high on the international energy policy agenda," the report added.
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